Ever since returning from my vacation in July I have been a mess. I have been a loser. I have had no conviction whatsoever. I have made every mistake in the book and been behind the market at every turn. Long every bloodbath and short every spike. Leaning one way then the other, flapping in the breeze.
This is all very upsetting. I am emotionally and psychologically tied to winning and losing. I win and life is pretty good. I lose and life is downright depressing. This in itself is a problem.
To be honest, I am shell shocked. I am the proverbial deer in the headlights. Today I actually just froze up and couldn't act. It's enough to make you want to quit.
I have been here before. I will pick up the pieces and slowly plot my comeback. I have worked way too hard to give up. It's not in my nature to quit. My losses are very manageable, small compared to other losing streaks. I will scrape my way back and I will have my revenge. I assure you.
Thursday, August 14, 2008
Testing Support Again
Futures trading down a 9AM/EST. If we open down here (not a foregone conclusion) we are going to basically be sitting right on the uptrend lines of the indices. Watching 1275 on the S&P and say 11470 on the DOW. Bulls had better hope they hold.
Wednesday, August 13, 2008
Ready to Nibble
$800 seems like a reasonable price at which to start nibbling on gold again. I intend to proceed with caution and keep it on a tight leash.
Tuesday, August 12, 2008
Scratch That
Back under 1292 on the S&P and 12700 on the DOW. The bears are back in control, for the moment anyway. Seriously, it's enough to make you dizzy. Dizzy like you want to puke on your sneakers.
No surprise that I found a number of names worth shorting today. I've balanced out my remaining longs after jettisoning the few that stopped me out. Stopped out of TOL and SLG. So much for my long real estate trade. That's alright, it never felt right.
Also stopped out of VLO. The refiners trade like shit.
As for shorts, aside from WB and LEH, some highlights include BA, NKE and IBM. Hope springs eternal. Came into the day short SYT and FRO and those worked pretty well. MON, on the other hand, stuck it to me.
Intraday I got long some FRP for a quick profit. Seems like I continue to do to just enough right to keep from getting a real job. Barely. Honestly this is the hardest market I've ever seen. Period. The whole key is to cut your losers. No time for hesitation.
I'm not entirely convinced that the bulls are done. We'll find out soon enough. Watch the BKX to find out. It's been fun to have some longs for a change but I will not hesitate to go back on the attack and start selling again.
No surprise that I found a number of names worth shorting today. I've balanced out my remaining longs after jettisoning the few that stopped me out. Stopped out of TOL and SLG. So much for my long real estate trade. That's alright, it never felt right.
Also stopped out of VLO. The refiners trade like shit.
As for shorts, aside from WB and LEH, some highlights include BA, NKE and IBM. Hope springs eternal. Came into the day short SYT and FRO and those worked pretty well. MON, on the other hand, stuck it to me.
Intraday I got long some FRP for a quick profit. Seems like I continue to do to just enough right to keep from getting a real job. Barely. Honestly this is the hardest market I've ever seen. Period. The whole key is to cut your losers. No time for hesitation.
I'm not entirely convinced that the bulls are done. We'll find out soon enough. Watch the BKX to find out. It's been fun to have some longs for a change but I will not hesitate to go back on the attack and start selling again.
It's Tuesday, Let's Sell
The market is getting beat like a drum in early trading. Still net long and not real concerned by this weakness. Not unexpected that we would gravitate back towards 1292 on the S&P. Financials are weak but I think this is consolidation still, leading to the inevitable rollover, but not quite yet. I expect maybe one more bounce. Without it this market will unravel faster than your broker's cheap suit.
Shorted a couple of the walking dead financials, WB and LEH. They look to be some of the first to rollover.
The key to being long here is to not to get too aggressive. All of this volatility is, in my mind, a sign of instability. I certainly don't want to be leaning too far in either direction.
Shorted a couple of the walking dead financials, WB and LEH. They look to be some of the first to rollover.
The key to being long here is to not to get too aggressive. All of this volatility is, in my mind, a sign of instability. I certainly don't want to be leaning too far in either direction.
Monday, August 11, 2008
Another Bottom?
This one is a thing of beauty.
Buying the double bottom on AMLN. Big name in a hot sector. I'm a buyer above $33. In size.
Monday Monday
Going through my watchlist this weekend I saw more bottoms than in a rap video. These bottoms may be short term in nature but regardless, the market has upside here. It almost makes sense to me that as soon as people start to observe that the economy is struggling we would have a big market rally.
A lot of traders are targeting 1320 on the S&P which happens to be the 50% retrace. I think we could go even higher and maybe make a run at the downtrend line coming off the top. Depending on how long it takes us to get there we could see 1350-1375.
The big news ofcourse is the Russia-Georgia conflict. It's not doing much for oil this morning, or gold for that matter which continues to work it's way lower. I love how Bush tries to act all hard saying he has been firm with Putin. If I was Putin I'd tell 'ol George to go pound some dirt and I'm sure he did, in diplomatic terms. The ultimate risk, now that the oil pipeline has already been bombed, is a scenario in which NATO gets involved on the side of Georgia. That would not be good, to say the least. Also, this conflict puts Europe's natty gas supply at risk. This is a fragile situation to say the least.
The market is working higher this morning, which I expect. My shorts are mixed. I think there is downside in Ag. The last thing I did Friday was to short MON. Haven't done too much this morning. Bought some HSY and I'm up a quick buck. Took some profits as well in ITW and RAVN, perhaps that was a bit hasty but it is what it is.
A lot of traders are targeting 1320 on the S&P which happens to be the 50% retrace. I think we could go even higher and maybe make a run at the downtrend line coming off the top. Depending on how long it takes us to get there we could see 1350-1375.
The big news ofcourse is the Russia-Georgia conflict. It's not doing much for oil this morning, or gold for that matter which continues to work it's way lower. I love how Bush tries to act all hard saying he has been firm with Putin. If I was Putin I'd tell 'ol George to go pound some dirt and I'm sure he did, in diplomatic terms. The ultimate risk, now that the oil pipeline has already been bombed, is a scenario in which NATO gets involved on the side of Georgia. That would not be good, to say the least. Also, this conflict puts Europe's natty gas supply at risk. This is a fragile situation to say the least.
The market is working higher this morning, which I expect. My shorts are mixed. I think there is downside in Ag. The last thing I did Friday was to short MON. Haven't done too much this morning. Bought some HSY and I'm up a quick buck. Took some profits as well in ITW and RAVN, perhaps that was a bit hasty but it is what it is.
Friday, August 8, 2008
Boostin' Loose
All indexes have broken the fuck out. Of course it's important that we hold these levels into the close (hour plus yet to go) to confirm but I'm eyeing a lot of strength at the moment. I must say I'm a bit surprised that we made it there today. Shit, the Dow is up 300 plus. I said GODDAMN!
I've been a buyer today. Bought the TOL breakout (even though it makes me sick) and caught VLO breaking out of a triangle. Been a (short) seller too, of SSRI.
Watching the refiners closely. They've been destroyed with the rise in crude. With crude breaking down I'm looking for the bounce. I'm going to be a big buyer of TSO above $18, started nibbling this afternoon (perhaps prematurely).
Most exciting though, is that amidst all this strength I've managed to hold on to three of the four shorts I started the day with. Still short FRO (happily), PX (giving it some rope) and GIFI which is down a buck at the moment. I swear to God GIFI is something else, it seems to trade contrary to reality. The market gets killed (like yesterday) and it's strong and vice versa today.
Today's disappointment was ALCO. Waiting for the breakout but forgot to check it until about a half hour into the day. When I did it was up a buck and a half. Damn missed it, or so I thought. Later on in the afternoon it was up Five. FIVE! Wow.
The market can go ahead and close now. I'm pleased. Had a very, very nice day. Everything seemed to work.
I've been a buyer today. Bought the TOL breakout (even though it makes me sick) and caught VLO breaking out of a triangle. Been a (short) seller too, of SSRI.
Watching the refiners closely. They've been destroyed with the rise in crude. With crude breaking down I'm looking for the bounce. I'm going to be a big buyer of TSO above $18, started nibbling this afternoon (perhaps prematurely).
Most exciting though, is that amidst all this strength I've managed to hold on to three of the four shorts I started the day with. Still short FRO (happily), PX (giving it some rope) and GIFI which is down a buck at the moment. I swear to God GIFI is something else, it seems to trade contrary to reality. The market gets killed (like yesterday) and it's strong and vice versa today.
Today's disappointment was ALCO. Waiting for the breakout but forgot to check it until about a half hour into the day. When I did it was up a buck and a half. Damn missed it, or so I thought. Later on in the afternoon it was up Five. FIVE! Wow.
The market can go ahead and close now. I'm pleased. Had a very, very nice day. Everything seemed to work.
Oil is Broken
The uptrend in oil, as I have it drawn, is unofficially broken. Snapped like a turkey's neck in November. Official contingent upon closing prices. Should gold take out it's prior intermediate low, I will consider it broken as well (I warned you about that last week). The dollar is raging higher thereby breaking the back of the commodity bull. Psst, (whisper) we're also in a recession.
The stock market is happy and, for a change, I'm happy by extension. Since last August almost every time we have had one of these giant rallies I have been cursing and breaking things. Today I am long. I enjoy the novelty of partaking in the bulls' joy but I remain a bear in bull costume. Higher prices will eventually lead to me shedding my costume and going all Rambo on these bulls.
I think we're making another run at 1292 on the S&P and I expect a breakout but let's not get too far ahead of ourselves.
The stock market is happy and, for a change, I'm happy by extension. Since last August almost every time we have had one of these giant rallies I have been cursing and breaking things. Today I am long. I enjoy the novelty of partaking in the bulls' joy but I remain a bear in bull costume. Higher prices will eventually lead to me shedding my costume and going all Rambo on these bulls.
I think we're making another run at 1292 on the S&P and I expect a breakout but let's not get too far ahead of ourselves.
Thursday, August 7, 2008
One of These Days...
...I'm going to make some money. In the meantime losing really, really sucks. Seriously.
Funny thing about today: I break my rule of no daytrading (out of frustration) and buy 1000 DXD (2x short Dow). It's plainly obvious that the market is going over the cliff. So after the initial break of the lows I initiate the position and literally four minutes before the market goes into a waterfall I sell it! For no gain! HA! Fucking hilarious!
I'm leaving now to go punch myself in the face. Have a nice fucking day.
Funny thing about today: I break my rule of no daytrading (out of frustration) and buy 1000 DXD (2x short Dow). It's plainly obvious that the market is going over the cliff. So after the initial break of the lows I initiate the position and literally four minutes before the market goes into a waterfall I sell it! For no gain! HA! Fucking hilarious!
I'm leaving now to go punch myself in the face. Have a nice fucking day.
My Bad
Yesterday I claimed that 1285 was the line in the sand for the S&P. That was erroneous. The number is 1292 which is not only resistance but the 38.2% retracement. I stand self-corrected.
We have rallied off the lows this morning but it still feels like we are heading lower this afternoon. Truly this market has no direction here. This is consolidation.
We have rallied off the lows this morning but it still feels like we are heading lower this afternoon. Truly this market has no direction here. This is consolidation.
Wednesday, August 6, 2008
Making Money Long (Well, Hopefully)
After dropping two percent yesterday (not bad considering the absurd 300 point move) and starting the day down another one and a half percent I'm rallying the troops. Too many names out there putting in short term bottoms for me to be a seller. Most of my shorts have been taken down (mostly yesterday morning) and I have replaced them with a number of longs.
Got long RIMM, UAUA, MCHP, RTN and ITW, all of which are breaking out. Also shorted some GIFI off of a head and shoulders top.
Got long RIMM, UAUA, MCHP, RTN and ITW, all of which are breaking out. Also shorted some GIFI off of a head and shoulders top.
Line in the Sand
1285 on the S&P.
Above it I get short term bullish (gasp!). Failure to surmont that level and it won't be long before I resume my selling. Leaning towards the former but it's just a hunch.
Above it I get short term bullish (gasp!). Failure to surmont that level and it won't be long before I resume my selling. Leaning towards the former but it's just a hunch.
Tuesday, August 5, 2008
Piss Poor
The purpose of this blog is to organize my thoughts and to keep a journal of sorts for future reference. The objective is to be truthful about my performance and illustrate good times and bad. So along those lines, I have to admit to piss poor performance of late.
Some combination of lack of conviction and poor attention during trading hours has me grounded. Grounded as in right into the fuckin' dirt. My lack of conviction, I believe, has something to do with coming back from vacation feeling out of the loop and lack of clear direction in the market as a whole. Poor attention during market hours is the harder part for me to deal with. I look at today's watch list and the winning trades are all right there on paper written by my hand. So I guess I just need to get my head on straight before I find myself living in a cardboard box.
This is the hard part of trading, the part that you can't teach. Psychology. It's the key to the whole puzzle. My tools and strategies are simple but trading itself is extremely challenging.
The only thing I can fall back on is that I've been here before. Many, many times. Time to pick myself up out of the dirt, brush myself off and get back to my winning ways. I have no doubt that I will be successful in the long run but it's easy to lose sight of the big picture when faced with adversity.
Some combination of lack of conviction and poor attention during trading hours has me grounded. Grounded as in right into the fuckin' dirt. My lack of conviction, I believe, has something to do with coming back from vacation feeling out of the loop and lack of clear direction in the market as a whole. Poor attention during market hours is the harder part for me to deal with. I look at today's watch list and the winning trades are all right there on paper written by my hand. So I guess I just need to get my head on straight before I find myself living in a cardboard box.
This is the hard part of trading, the part that you can't teach. Psychology. It's the key to the whole puzzle. My tools and strategies are simple but trading itself is extremely challenging.
The only thing I can fall back on is that I've been here before. Many, many times. Time to pick myself up out of the dirt, brush myself off and get back to my winning ways. I have no doubt that I will be successful in the long run but it's easy to lose sight of the big picture when faced with adversity.
Monday, August 4, 2008
Nowhere to Hide
Up until last week you could have avoided most of the pain by hiding out in commodities. Not anymore. This jives with my thesis insofar as all along I have maintained that we would reach a point in time where there would be "nowhere to hide".
The general consensus is that commodities getting bludgeoned should be bullish for everything else. I'm not so sure about that. Rather I think the pain has just increased. Previously we were pricing in an elevated chance of outright implosion in the financials, which became less pronounced once Bernanke and Paulson decided to try and bail out their buddies, now we are pricing in a recession. Enjoy.
The general consensus is that commodities getting bludgeoned should be bullish for everything else. I'm not so sure about that. Rather I think the pain has just increased. Previously we were pricing in an elevated chance of outright implosion in the financials, which became less pronounced once Bernanke and Paulson decided to try and bail out their buddies, now we are pricing in a recession. Enjoy.
Putting Dogma Aside
It's no secret that I'm a big proponent of owning precious metals. The whole reason I've owned metals for the last few years is in anticipation of this very moment in time. The moment when the government tries to bail out Wall Street and it becomes clear to all that Bernanke is in a box. That's my financial dogma. Now the reality, is something different.
Gold failed to hold $900. Let us take a look at GDX, which tracks mining shares. I see a potential top.
That's ugly. Also problematic is the chart of my old friend PAAS. I've made a small fortune being long this stock over the years but now I want to be on the other side of that trade. At least for the time being.
You know, the market is funny and often operates contrary to your expectations. I'm somewhat surprised the metals aren't going nuts to the upside considering the backdrop. However, I trade based on reality not dogma. Best case scenario is that the metals get hammered and set up the buying opportunity of a lifetime. We'll see.
Yes I did short PAAS this morning.
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