Bulls got raped today. DOW down 2.5%. I did some raping, up 2%. Good not great . February saw the market down 3% or so. I logged a 9%+ gain.
Enjoy your weekend. I will be enjoying mine with rich man's whiskey.
Friday, February 29, 2008
Tough Day to be a Bull, Good Day to be a Bullfucker
The market is getting hammered this morning and I must say that my performance is less than stellar. Not because I'm losing money but because I'm not making more than I am.
I feel confident in saying that the market will not go to zero today, nor will the bear market end anytime soon. As a result I'm trying not to get too excited and start selling into the hole.
Take a deep breath.
I followed my plan and bulked up my BAC short, sold my MUR (gave back a point and kept the other nine that I made in the last three weeks), trimmed some AUY (to bank profits)...have a chunky short position in GM already in place so I'm comfortable if not happy with my exposure. Oh and I have copious amounts of dry powder. Trimmed my chunky NFX position yesterday and will look to buy on a pullback to support (impressive breakout by the way).
A bounce off the lows would be nice in order to get better entry points but we just keep knifing lower, down 240 pts. on the DOW now.
I feel confident in saying that the market will not go to zero today, nor will the bear market end anytime soon. As a result I'm trying not to get too excited and start selling into the hole.
Take a deep breath.
I followed my plan and bulked up my BAC short, sold my MUR (gave back a point and kept the other nine that I made in the last three weeks), trimmed some AUY (to bank profits)...have a chunky short position in GM already in place so I'm comfortable if not happy with my exposure. Oh and I have copious amounts of dry powder. Trimmed my chunky NFX position yesterday and will look to buy on a pullback to support (impressive breakout by the way).
A bounce off the lows would be nice in order to get better entry points but we just keep knifing lower, down 240 pts. on the DOW now.
Thursday, February 28, 2008
Here We Go Again, Grab Your Helmet
Here's what I see going through my watchlist: a list of potential short candidates longer than my arm. Noticed the same imbalance last night too. As a result I started putting more money to work this afternoon on the short side.
Looks to me as if the financials are getting ready to lead us lower once again. That has been the number one market tell since August of last year. When the financials start to swoon it gets ugly quick. I haven't done too much with this idea relative to how strongly I feel about it but I did buy back some SKF (yesterday) and shorted some BAC (today). I intend to aggressively short BAC (I'm an unsatisfied customer) but I'll wait until it cracks the 50-dma to double my position.
The last market swoon we had didn't hold and in fact rebounded quite violently due to the fact that the financials (and housing stocks) were bouncing. With the financials rolling over I'm much more confident betting against the market here. Mark my word (ad nauseum), pain lies directly ahead.
Tomorrow is month end. I'm up about 7.5% in February (not quite my best levels but God-like returns nonetheless). The market itself is basically flat during that time.
Time to go hunt some bulls. I've sharpened my bear claws.
Looks to me as if the financials are getting ready to lead us lower once again. That has been the number one market tell since August of last year. When the financials start to swoon it gets ugly quick. I haven't done too much with this idea relative to how strongly I feel about it but I did buy back some SKF (yesterday) and shorted some BAC (today). I intend to aggressively short BAC (I'm an unsatisfied customer) but I'll wait until it cracks the 50-dma to double my position.
The last market swoon we had didn't hold and in fact rebounded quite violently due to the fact that the financials (and housing stocks) were bouncing. With the financials rolling over I'm much more confident betting against the market here. Mark my word (ad nauseum), pain lies directly ahead.
Tomorrow is month end. I'm up about 7.5% in February (not quite my best levels but God-like returns nonetheless). The market itself is basically flat during that time.
Time to go hunt some bulls. I've sharpened my bear claws.
More Grid Problems
HOUSTON (Reuters) - A drop in wind generation late on Tuesday, coupled with colder weather, triggered an electric emergency that caused the Texas grid operator to cut service to some large customers, the grid agency said on Wednesday.
ClickHere
Is it just me, or is this becoming more common?
ClickHere
Is it just me, or is this becoming more common?
Wednesday, February 27, 2008
Our Grid is Antiquated
AP- A relatively minor glitch in Florida’s electrical grid somehow triggered a chain reaction Tuesday that caused a nuclear plant to shut down and briefly cut power in patches from Daytona Beach through the Florida Keys.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23355118/
Americans take many things for granted. Behind the scenes it's a precarious balance. In the years ahead it will get harder to keep our lights on and our plates full of food. Go ahead and scoff at your own risk.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23355118/
Americans take many things for granted. Behind the scenes it's a precarious balance. In the years ahead it will get harder to keep our lights on and our plates full of food. Go ahead and scoff at your own risk.
Tuesday, February 26, 2008
Whew!
Glad to be out of my shorts. Caught the turn quite nicely. Market is rocketing higher and the one short I kept (FNM) is down 3%+. The longs are working nicely and NFX may finally be ready to reward my patience. Feeling good. It's better to be profitable than dogmatic.
We have a couple weeks before the profit warnings begin to roll in and the bulls are in control. Take the ball and run with it boys.
I'm 98% equity and have a lot of dry powder.
We have a couple weeks before the profit warnings begin to roll in and the bulls are in control. Take the ball and run with it boys.
I'm 98% equity and have a lot of dry powder.
Long As Hell
This is probably the most long-side exposure I've had since August of last year. You too can believe in fairy tales. It's nice to not have to worry about some crazy 100 pt. intra-day spike taking a chunk out of my ass.
Hopefully the market can continue breaking the shorts although it's not a foregone conclusion as the major averages have yet to convincingly break out- but they are very close. Better entry points await. While awaiting those better entry points (from which to sell aggressively) I'll regroup from the long side and play some potential breakouts. Must say I'm very excited about my longs. Here is a taste of a few of my favorite longs.
Monday, February 25, 2008
Goldilocks Lives
Another day another big intra-day spike in the market. Today's bailout was of the monolines resulting in the DOW closing another 189 pts higher on top of Friday's anticipatory ramp-job. Rating agencies have reaffirmed the monolines fraudulent triple-A ratings on top of a large cash infusion into the black hole that is Ambac. More belief in fairy tales and happy endings by market participants.
Tell me this, how overwhelming is the exposure to toxic waste of these financial concerns (Citigroup, Wachovia, etc.) that they would be willing to throw a couple billion dollars at Ambac? It must be pretty scary.
This bailout is just another Wall Street shell game. It's all a matter of shifting some billions around in order to hide the losses. Problem is the losses remain and further obfuscation doesn't change that fact. You can get away with all this fraud because there is no regulation whatsoever. Actually, I'd go so far as to say that the regulators (and the Fed) are complicit in the fraud. They've certainly enabled it to go on and on.
So here we are with the indices right back where they started the month. I'm up 5%-ish. I've covered most of my shorts to preserve capital. Having done so may prove premature and I'm anxiously anticipating the opportunity to start selling again. Fact is I trade to put food on the table not to prove how right I am. Sometimes you have to err on the side of caution. Should the market continue to trade based on fairy tales I'll pack it in and go kayaking.
Tell me this, how overwhelming is the exposure to toxic waste of these financial concerns (Citigroup, Wachovia, etc.) that they would be willing to throw a couple billion dollars at Ambac? It must be pretty scary.
This bailout is just another Wall Street shell game. It's all a matter of shifting some billions around in order to hide the losses. Problem is the losses remain and further obfuscation doesn't change that fact. You can get away with all this fraud because there is no regulation whatsoever. Actually, I'd go so far as to say that the regulators (and the Fed) are complicit in the fraud. They've certainly enabled it to go on and on.
So here we are with the indices right back where they started the month. I'm up 5%-ish. I've covered most of my shorts to preserve capital. Having done so may prove premature and I'm anxiously anticipating the opportunity to start selling again. Fact is I trade to put food on the table not to prove how right I am. Sometimes you have to err on the side of caution. Should the market continue to trade based on fairy tales I'll pack it in and go kayaking.
Monday Monday
Perhaps I was too hasty in calling out Gasparino on Friday. He's generally likable and (relative to the shallow talent pool on CNBS) competent enough. I just don't much appreciate getting knee-capped on a Friday afternoon. Fact is, some men feel the need to play the game and get in line. To do what they are told. Just so happens I'm not one of them. Been there, done that and it didn't take me long to figure out it wasn't for me.
Anyway, the market rallied because it was due to rally when it did. I should have taken profits. I knew that and failed to act. If anyone, I should be frustrated with myself. In totality, last week was profitable and this morning is so far so good. It's been a good month and I will react quickly to protect profits.
Today represents an epic struggle between bulls and bears. From a technical perspective, whoever takes control this week should be able to dominate the action for awhile. This is the bulls' big chance.
Should the bulls gain the upper hand my plan is to avoid getting pummelled. Preserve my hard earned profits and live to fight another day. Better entry points will await.
Anyway, the market rallied because it was due to rally when it did. I should have taken profits. I knew that and failed to act. If anyone, I should be frustrated with myself. In totality, last week was profitable and this morning is so far so good. It's been a good month and I will react quickly to protect profits.
Today represents an epic struggle between bulls and bears. From a technical perspective, whoever takes control this week should be able to dominate the action for awhile. This is the bulls' big chance.
Should the bulls gain the upper hand my plan is to avoid getting pummelled. Preserve my hard earned profits and live to fight another day. Better entry points will await.
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