Friday, December 21, 2007

Assume the Position

Bent over. I'm waiting for my shorts to be eviscerated at the open. Looks like there will be more meat on the bone when it's time to get aggressively short again. Currently sitting tight with a lot of capital on the sidelines. Don't see how this market is going much higher with the fundamentals deteriorating rapidly.

Some of this pop is RIMM. Some is OP/EX games.

Thoughts on Gold


This is looking more like consolidation then the pullback I expected. Consolidation could lead to higher prices. The idea is to wait for the consolidation to conclude then trade in the direction of the breakout. I could potentially get very bullish if we break higher.

Headline in This Week's ONION

"nation's crumbling infrastructure probably some sort of metaphor"

Long Ideas? I've Been Drinking; It's Almost 3AM

Felt out of rhythm the last couple days. Giving back some profits. Pulling back on trade size and risk exposure. Playing safe, I guess. Today was better and tonight the watchlist is pregnant with potential. Initiated two shorts, one long- SCHN is a trend line play. Shorted some FNM. Actually the position might be a touch big because I really just want to send out a scout position. See if it sticks.
Tonight and last the watchlist has many more long ideas. Here are a few.

and

This one I've been long for awhile. Takes time for one of these long term consolidation patterns to play out.



Here is one I'm waiting for. Anxiously.


Now for some of my mistakes. You won't believe it but I sold the below stock on Monday. The day before the +15% moonshot. Monday afternoon just randomly throwing shit into the fire. Well imagine my surprise Tuesday morning when gapped up four bucks. Then proceeded to go higher all day. I literally thought to myself when I sold- shoulda waited until it hit $48.50 on the downside since that was the plan. The plan- remember that hotshot? A bit more pain but no I figured I was wrong prematurely. Just throwin' it in the fire to watch it burn.

The sin on CRM is one of inaction. I've watched the stock closely and traded it successfully in the past. One of my better long trades of the year- pure rocket fuel. As soon as it cleared 57 1/2 it was flashing on my watchlist. Jumping off the page at me. I sat and watched. Sat and watched. Today it happened- the explanation point.


Screw Christmas. I'm ready for next year to start. Consider all these long ideas to be my holiday cheer because once that wears off the market is going to get creamed. Maybe it's all the booze in my coffee. Still net short but backing off a touch. The edge is close. Tangling with CCL again, stop is tight. Planning to close out my best year ever strong. I'm sprinting to the line after jogging the last mile. In 2008 fortunes will be made and lost.

Tuesday, December 18, 2007

No Vacation Here

Many traders have closed up shop for the year. Booked gains and made reservations. Not me. While others are enjoying a holiday vacation from the markets I am right here hard at work. I'm like Floyd Mayweather in the gym on the treadmill at 2 AM while his opponents are sleeping.

Next year is going to be very interesting. I'm going to bring my A-game.