ARM reset schedule. Click here
Translation: More pain ahead as ARMs reset at higher rates.
Friday, June 8, 2007
Wednesday, June 6, 2007
Tuesday, June 5, 2007
More Statistical Manipulation
Had been intending to post something on the subject of employment statistics and their intentionally misleading nature. Fortunately, someone did the work for me. Good article- check it out.
Link
Link
Are You Ready for $5 Gas?
You should be. It seems all but inevitable. Maybe this summer, maybe not, though the farther out on the horizon you look the greater the likelihood. Our refineries are overstretched, not to mention frequently blowing up. There is a secular bull market in oil and supply is peaking. No coincidence, I'm sure. We've picked all the low hanging fruit and new energy sources will be increasingly difficult to exploit i.e. more expensive.
Hurricane in the gulf? $5 Gas.
Add to that, a weakening dollar and geopolitical concerns. The world's oil reserves are primarily in unstable regions. Think Venezuela or Nigeria. Iran and it's proximity to the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world's oil passes. Consider too that we face increased competition for resources due to growth around the world. There are an awful lot of Chinese buying their first cars. Chavez doesn't like our foreign policy so he'll sell his oil to China.
Bad news for GM. It's time to start planning for a future with higher gas prices. This country is going to need more public transportation. We're going to need to figure out how to grow and manufacture more goods locally instead of shipping in them in from across the globe.
Hurricane in the gulf? $5 Gas.
Add to that, a weakening dollar and geopolitical concerns. The world's oil reserves are primarily in unstable regions. Think Venezuela or Nigeria. Iran and it's proximity to the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world's oil passes. Consider too that we face increased competition for resources due to growth around the world. There are an awful lot of Chinese buying their first cars. Chavez doesn't like our foreign policy so he'll sell his oil to China.
Bad news for GM. It's time to start planning for a future with higher gas prices. This country is going to need more public transportation. We're going to need to figure out how to grow and manufacture more goods locally instead of shipping in them in from across the globe.
Monday, June 4, 2007
This Week's Stock Pick
"The Skeptic" has been wildly bullish on precious metals generally, and silver specifically, since about 2001. This is how "The Skeptic" makes his money, by seeing the future. You may ask how it is that "The Skeptic" can see the future. Well that's none of your damn business.
Silver has been in a consolidation phase for just over a year now. Meanwhile, central banks around the world have continued to print money, the silver ETF (SLV) has continued to drain supply from a tight market and there have been a range of new products introduced that use silver. "The Skeptic" has been patiently waiting for silver to end this consolidation in anticipation of an explosive move in prices. That time has not yet come but it appears imminent.
Be aware...at some point silver is going to go ballistic. In anticipation of silver completing this current consolidation "The Skeptic" is ready to start putting some money to work. As a result this week's pick is SLW- Silver Wheaton. Buying Silver Wheaton is a direct bet on higher silver prices. Just like the commodity itself SLW has been consolidating for a year. You can bet that when this stock gets a couple closes above the $12 mark it will gain serious momentum. Currently SLW is sitting right at that magical $12 mark.
Disclaimer: Author does own this stock and is not a broker. Should you buy this stock based on this post you might lose all your money and end up living in the street.
Silver has been in a consolidation phase for just over a year now. Meanwhile, central banks around the world have continued to print money, the silver ETF (SLV) has continued to drain supply from a tight market and there have been a range of new products introduced that use silver. "The Skeptic" has been patiently waiting for silver to end this consolidation in anticipation of an explosive move in prices. That time has not yet come but it appears imminent.
Be aware...at some point silver is going to go ballistic. In anticipation of silver completing this current consolidation "The Skeptic" is ready to start putting some money to work. As a result this week's pick is SLW- Silver Wheaton. Buying Silver Wheaton is a direct bet on higher silver prices. Just like the commodity itself SLW has been consolidating for a year. You can bet that when this stock gets a couple closes above the $12 mark it will gain serious momentum. Currently SLW is sitting right at that magical $12 mark.
Disclaimer: Author does own this stock and is not a broker. Should you buy this stock based on this post you might lose all your money and end up living in the street.
More Debate Coverage
The Democrats were in New Hampshire tonight for their latest debate. CNN's coverage was loaded with second-rate commentary. Really contrasted poorly with MSNBC's coverage of their hosted debate. However, the questions to the candidates were better than previous debates. They wasted less time, relatively speaking, with assinine questions. Here is a brief synopsis, by candidate:
Hillary- She faced a lot of jabs tonight. Everyone seemed prepared to take their shot. She did reasonably well considering. As the frontrunner she appropriately played it safe. The only thing Hillary said that made me curse at the TV was a reiteration of her whole "I didn't make a mistake authorizing force in Iraq but if I knew then what I know now..." That's balderdash. "The Skeptic" does not get national intelligence breifings, nor does he have a staff of fact-checkers, yet he still would have told you invading Iraq was a bad idea at the time. Why? Mostly common sense. So either she has bad judgement or voted as she did in pure political calculation, which is worse. She also likes to claim that no one thought Bush would use the authorized force because he claimed he would let inspectors finish their work. So she is a bad judge of character to boot.
Obama- He fared better in the debate format that he previously appeared uncomfortable with. He spoke eloquently yet offers no real leadership. He's done very little to distinquish his positions from Hillary's.
Edwards- He was aggressive. He attacked Hillary. He mixed it up with Obama. Well done. I appreciate the fact he admitted more than once he was wrong to vote for Iraq war authorization. It's an easy dig at Hillary but nonetheless refreshing. They never even covered Edwards' big issue- poverty.
Biden- Did a lot to help himself tonight. He spoke forcefully about Darfur. Appeared passionate about the issues generally. Biden is likable and intelligent yet doesn't offer much beyond foreign policy experience. In this crowd you could do a lot worse than Biden.
Richardson- Likeable but not the least bit presidential. No longer worthy of consideration.
Dodd- yawn
Kucinich- "The Skeptic" loves the fact that this guy doesn't pander. Someone in the audience asked a question about what we can do to rebuild the military, which was directed to him. Part of his answer was that we should reduce defense spending. Overall, it seemed he, along with Biden and Edwards, fared the best tonight.
Gravel- Vitriolic as ever, Gravel continued throwing bombs. I'm sure, beyond this election cycle, the parties will find a way to exclude guys like Gravel or Kucinich or Ron Paul from future debates. That would be a shame. You'll hear more truth spoken by these fringe candidates then all the others combined.
Hillary- She faced a lot of jabs tonight. Everyone seemed prepared to take their shot. She did reasonably well considering. As the frontrunner she appropriately played it safe. The only thing Hillary said that made me curse at the TV was a reiteration of her whole "I didn't make a mistake authorizing force in Iraq but if I knew then what I know now..." That's balderdash. "The Skeptic" does not get national intelligence breifings, nor does he have a staff of fact-checkers, yet he still would have told you invading Iraq was a bad idea at the time. Why? Mostly common sense. So either she has bad judgement or voted as she did in pure political calculation, which is worse. She also likes to claim that no one thought Bush would use the authorized force because he claimed he would let inspectors finish their work. So she is a bad judge of character to boot.
Obama- He fared better in the debate format that he previously appeared uncomfortable with. He spoke eloquently yet offers no real leadership. He's done very little to distinquish his positions from Hillary's.
Edwards- He was aggressive. He attacked Hillary. He mixed it up with Obama. Well done. I appreciate the fact he admitted more than once he was wrong to vote for Iraq war authorization. It's an easy dig at Hillary but nonetheless refreshing. They never even covered Edwards' big issue- poverty.
Biden- Did a lot to help himself tonight. He spoke forcefully about Darfur. Appeared passionate about the issues generally. Biden is likable and intelligent yet doesn't offer much beyond foreign policy experience. In this crowd you could do a lot worse than Biden.
Richardson- Likeable but not the least bit presidential. No longer worthy of consideration.
Dodd- yawn
Kucinich- "The Skeptic" loves the fact that this guy doesn't pander. Someone in the audience asked a question about what we can do to rebuild the military, which was directed to him. Part of his answer was that we should reduce defense spending. Overall, it seemed he, along with Biden and Edwards, fared the best tonight.
Gravel- Vitriolic as ever, Gravel continued throwing bombs. I'm sure, beyond this election cycle, the parties will find a way to exclude guys like Gravel or Kucinich or Ron Paul from future debates. That would be a shame. You'll hear more truth spoken by these fringe candidates then all the others combined.
Sunday, June 3, 2007
Ron Paul- The People's Champ
"I don't think we have a republic anymore," he tells me, sitting up in his chair. "I think we have a very domineering federal government, where we have a world empire we have to manage every single day."
http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2007/06/02/ron_paul/?source=whitelist
http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2007/06/02/ron_paul/?source=whitelist
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