Friday, January 4, 2008
Just for the Record
I'm short CROX...and loving it. They make what have to be considered some of the ugliest shoes ever made. I'm clearing out some positions but not this one.
Whew!
What a week it's been. I stayed hot. Matter of fact today is my third big up day in a row. One hell of a way to start this new year. Coming in short I must say it's been rather enjoyable watching the market get killed all week.
So after a great run I will continue to take down risk as I've done all week. Raising some fresh powder and banking some profits. Killing all the men and burning the villages as I fall back into the mountains.
I've taken down two short positions, now three, entirely and also covered some of my CCL short which has worked so well so quickly. I suspect after crashing through this last bit of support that it has much farther to fall. Still positioned to benefit with my remaining position but I'd like to think that I'll get another shot to get bigger in the name.
Having covered all these shorts I find myself surprisingly net long. Net long? Barely. Gold and silver are getting beat on today but I have fresh powder should I decide to buy more next week. Additionally, GENZ is looking pretty sharp and could be breaking out to new all time highs soon.
No need to get greedy or be a hero. I have initiated almost no new positions this week while focused on raising cash. Don't plan to do much this afternoon. The market can go ahead and close now as far as I'm concerned. I'll enjoy my weekend and come into next week with fresh powder and a fresh perspective.
So after a great run I will continue to take down risk as I've done all week. Raising some fresh powder and banking some profits. Killing all the men and burning the villages as I fall back into the mountains.
I've taken down two short positions, now three, entirely and also covered some of my CCL short which has worked so well so quickly. I suspect after crashing through this last bit of support that it has much farther to fall. Still positioned to benefit with my remaining position but I'd like to think that I'll get another shot to get bigger in the name.
Having covered all these shorts I find myself surprisingly net long. Net long? Barely. Gold and silver are getting beat on today but I have fresh powder should I decide to buy more next week. Additionally, GENZ is looking pretty sharp and could be breaking out to new all time highs soon.
No need to get greedy or be a hero. I have initiated almost no new positions this week while focused on raising cash. Don't plan to do much this afternoon. The market can go ahead and close now as far as I'm concerned. I'll enjoy my weekend and come into next week with fresh powder and a fresh perspective.
Thursday, January 3, 2008
These Things Happen
So literally five trading sessions ago I placed a trade with my broker. The order, to short 100 shares of NILE at the market just after it had tickled $75/share, did not fill as my broker did not have the shares available to borrow. I did nothing further and haven't revisited the idea. I might need more than one broker.
Position Closed, For Now
Covered SLG short just now @ $90. Taking precautions ahead of employment report Friday in the likelihood that the market could swing a couple hundred points in either direction on the back of that report.
Ninety bucks looks like the last remaining support for SLG between here and sixty. Wouldn't be surprised to see it attempt to hold these levels in the short run. Ultimately this dog is going lower and I'm not done chaining it to a tree and beating it with a stick but having made seven points in six days I'll play it safe and bank some profits.
Ninety bucks looks like the last remaining support for SLG between here and sixty. Wouldn't be surprised to see it attempt to hold these levels in the short run. Ultimately this dog is going lower and I'm not done chaining it to a tree and beating it with a stick but having made seven points in six days I'll play it safe and bank some profits.
Easy Money for the Patient Among Us
This is the sort of long term consolidation pattern that eventually leads to significant gains. Observe the resistance at the $52.50-55 level and how long it has taken to surmount that level (it sits close to $55 right now).This particular pattern, in NFX, looks to be very close to resolving itself to the upside. I doubled my long position this morning. The only problem for me with a pattern like this is the length of time it takes to resolve. I want to trade patterns that work now, not eventually. In this case there will be some waiting involved which is the only factor keeping me from buying hand over fist.
Expect that once resistance is cleared this stock will rocket higher save for a potential retest of that key level from above which will, if it happens, create an even better buying opportunity.
Wednesday, January 2, 2008
Killing It
Picking up right where I left off. Closed out a non-preforming short in NIHD and covered PAYX for a fat profit. Raised some cash and put it right to work. Bought SLV and quadrupled my CCL short. We'll see if it works this time.
Funny. As a younger trader I would get very excited on a big up day like today. Now I get nervous and anxious. Rest assured- this is my year.
Funny. As a younger trader I would get very excited on a big up day like today. Now I get nervous and anxious. Rest assured- this is my year.
Frustration
Entering 08 with little dry powder leaves me scrambling to find some already. I want to buy gold and especially silver hand over fist. Silver has not yet broken out so I'm anticipating the move somewhat. It's a risk I'm willing to take considering the potential reward.
Also I'm looking to tangle with CCL again (I have a smallish position already). I've been on the wrong side of this name several times in the last year but I still want to sell the shit out of it under $44. Which is about where it sits right now.
Also I'm looking to tangle with CCL again (I have a smallish position already). I've been on the wrong side of this name several times in the last year but I still want to sell the shit out of it under $44. Which is about where it sits right now.
In Case You Hadn't Noticed...
...you want to remain long oil and gold. Keep an eye on silver for the impending breakout. Catching the break could be quite lucrative.
Tuesday, January 1, 2008
Back to Work
Welcome to the new year folks. Tomorrow marks the first trading day of the year. I go in net short. The markets seem to be coiling up here and there will be a decisive break sometime early in 08. Considering the backdrop the break should be lower but that's not the business of the day.
Short term we get Fed minutes on Wednesday and then it's employment report Friday. Not too concerned about the short term market action and will look for opportunities in individual names long and short. The watchlist has mostly short candidates but my favorite ideas are balanced between the two.
The plan is to remain somewhat defensive. Not looking to give back last year's profits. I'm heavily committed now but ideally can scale back to accrue some fresh powder. 08 will provide numerous opportunities and there is no reason to press my bets in January. As always I will "stay in the game".
My current analogy for trading is guerrilla warfare. The idea is to attack the market where it is most vulnerable and to risk as little as possible.
Short term we get Fed minutes on Wednesday and then it's employment report Friday. Not too concerned about the short term market action and will look for opportunities in individual names long and short. The watchlist has mostly short candidates but my favorite ideas are balanced between the two.
The plan is to remain somewhat defensive. Not looking to give back last year's profits. I'm heavily committed now but ideally can scale back to accrue some fresh powder. 08 will provide numerous opportunities and there is no reason to press my bets in January. As always I will "stay in the game".
My current analogy for trading is guerrilla warfare. The idea is to attack the market where it is most vulnerable and to risk as little as possible.
46%
It's official. Another year in the books. My trading account had a whopping, ridiculous, outsized total return of 46% in a year when the broader market as represented by the DOW was up a measly 6.5%. A sideways market with increasing volatility as the year went on.
To be blunt my performance was nothing short of spectacular. It really is that simple. I'm one college dropout that should be trading for Soros. Maybe not yet.
My year started off slowly though. Real slowly. Found myself basically flat (up a touch) on July first. Then I proceeded to knock the cover off the ball. The final six months of the year I did no wrong, 6-0 down the stretch.
In August when the market got hammered my trading account soared 12% for the MONTH. Yet when the market rebounded sharply in September I was up another 8.5%. November saw another swoon but I was up again, 8.6% this time. So in the second half when the markets gyrated violently in one direction then another I profited regardless of direction- though mostly on the short side.
Reading everything within reach related to trading over the years I have developed a theory. Trading is a lifelong challenge. Traders will tread water for years. Many will blow themselves up or give up in frustration while others may lack the discipline necessary to become consistently profitable in the markets. Some of those who stay in the game will at some point maybe after 10 or 20 years have it just "click". It all slows down and starts making sense and you essentially turn the corner into the promised land of consistent profits.
Like a second or third year NFL quarterback who talks about the game slowing down. You've thrown some interceptions, gotten hit and now with experience and maturity have a better understanding of the game. Some traders are Ryan Leaf, never maturing. Others are like Rich Gannon who was a journeyman who shined late in his career. John Elway is one in a million talent and those are your odds at that kind of success.
So there have been a couple of times over the years when in the midst of a big winning streak I wonder to myself if I've "clicked". Very shortly thereafter I proceed to blow myself up with a series of awful trades.
Well here I am again.
This time there are some key differences. I have in the second half been banking coin on many different positions long and short whereas before it was a big bet on one good idea. Basically position sizing. No one thing is going to blow me up so I have eliminated risk and taken some of the volatility out of my returns.
Secondly, when a trade is entered my primary concern is risk not profit. Risk should be defined beforehand. I'm generally unwilling to risk much and have cut my losers religiously.
I've worked harder and been more disciplined then ever before.
So entering 2008 I'm filled with anxious anticipation. We'll soon find out whether or not it has "clicked" for real. Furthermore the market backdrop is dramatic and the scene is set for some very serious fireworks. I just love what I do. Can't wait to see what happens next. We are absolutely living in a period of time that will make the history books of the future.
If I should spend the early months of 2008 destroying my trading capital crashing back to earth it will only be a temporary setback because I sense that I'm getting closer all the time.
To be blunt my performance was nothing short of spectacular. It really is that simple. I'm one college dropout that should be trading for Soros. Maybe not yet.
My year started off slowly though. Real slowly. Found myself basically flat (up a touch) on July first. Then I proceeded to knock the cover off the ball. The final six months of the year I did no wrong, 6-0 down the stretch.
In August when the market got hammered my trading account soared 12% for the MONTH. Yet when the market rebounded sharply in September I was up another 8.5%. November saw another swoon but I was up again, 8.6% this time. So in the second half when the markets gyrated violently in one direction then another I profited regardless of direction- though mostly on the short side.
Reading everything within reach related to trading over the years I have developed a theory. Trading is a lifelong challenge. Traders will tread water for years. Many will blow themselves up or give up in frustration while others may lack the discipline necessary to become consistently profitable in the markets. Some of those who stay in the game will at some point maybe after 10 or 20 years have it just "click". It all slows down and starts making sense and you essentially turn the corner into the promised land of consistent profits.
Like a second or third year NFL quarterback who talks about the game slowing down. You've thrown some interceptions, gotten hit and now with experience and maturity have a better understanding of the game. Some traders are Ryan Leaf, never maturing. Others are like Rich Gannon who was a journeyman who shined late in his career. John Elway is one in a million talent and those are your odds at that kind of success.
So there have been a couple of times over the years when in the midst of a big winning streak I wonder to myself if I've "clicked". Very shortly thereafter I proceed to blow myself up with a series of awful trades.
Well here I am again.
This time there are some key differences. I have in the second half been banking coin on many different positions long and short whereas before it was a big bet on one good idea. Basically position sizing. No one thing is going to blow me up so I have eliminated risk and taken some of the volatility out of my returns.
Secondly, when a trade is entered my primary concern is risk not profit. Risk should be defined beforehand. I'm generally unwilling to risk much and have cut my losers religiously.
I've worked harder and been more disciplined then ever before.
So entering 2008 I'm filled with anxious anticipation. We'll soon find out whether or not it has "clicked" for real. Furthermore the market backdrop is dramatic and the scene is set for some very serious fireworks. I just love what I do. Can't wait to see what happens next. We are absolutely living in a period of time that will make the history books of the future.
If I should spend the early months of 2008 destroying my trading capital crashing back to earth it will only be a temporary setback because I sense that I'm getting closer all the time.
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