Ever since returning from my vacation in July I have been a mess. I have been a loser. I have had no conviction whatsoever. I have made every mistake in the book and been behind the market at every turn. Long every bloodbath and short every spike. Leaning one way then the other, flapping in the breeze.
This is all very upsetting. I am emotionally and psychologically tied to winning and losing. I win and life is pretty good. I lose and life is downright depressing. This in itself is a problem.
To be honest, I am shell shocked. I am the proverbial deer in the headlights. Today I actually just froze up and couldn't act. It's enough to make you want to quit.
I have been here before. I will pick up the pieces and slowly plot my comeback. I have worked way too hard to give up. It's not in my nature to quit. My losses are very manageable, small compared to other losing streaks. I will scrape my way back and I will have my revenge. I assure you.
Thursday, August 14, 2008
Testing Support Again
Futures trading down a 9AM/EST. If we open down here (not a foregone conclusion) we are going to basically be sitting right on the uptrend lines of the indices. Watching 1275 on the S&P and say 11470 on the DOW. Bulls had better hope they hold.
Wednesday, August 13, 2008
Ready to Nibble
$800 seems like a reasonable price at which to start nibbling on gold again. I intend to proceed with caution and keep it on a tight leash.
Tuesday, August 12, 2008
Scratch That
Back under 1292 on the S&P and 12700 on the DOW. The bears are back in control, for the moment anyway. Seriously, it's enough to make you dizzy. Dizzy like you want to puke on your sneakers.
No surprise that I found a number of names worth shorting today. I've balanced out my remaining longs after jettisoning the few that stopped me out. Stopped out of TOL and SLG. So much for my long real estate trade. That's alright, it never felt right.
Also stopped out of VLO. The refiners trade like shit.
As for shorts, aside from WB and LEH, some highlights include BA, NKE and IBM. Hope springs eternal. Came into the day short SYT and FRO and those worked pretty well. MON, on the other hand, stuck it to me.
Intraday I got long some FRP for a quick profit. Seems like I continue to do to just enough right to keep from getting a real job. Barely. Honestly this is the hardest market I've ever seen. Period. The whole key is to cut your losers. No time for hesitation.
I'm not entirely convinced that the bulls are done. We'll find out soon enough. Watch the BKX to find out. It's been fun to have some longs for a change but I will not hesitate to go back on the attack and start selling again.
No surprise that I found a number of names worth shorting today. I've balanced out my remaining longs after jettisoning the few that stopped me out. Stopped out of TOL and SLG. So much for my long real estate trade. That's alright, it never felt right.
Also stopped out of VLO. The refiners trade like shit.
As for shorts, aside from WB and LEH, some highlights include BA, NKE and IBM. Hope springs eternal. Came into the day short SYT and FRO and those worked pretty well. MON, on the other hand, stuck it to me.
Intraday I got long some FRP for a quick profit. Seems like I continue to do to just enough right to keep from getting a real job. Barely. Honestly this is the hardest market I've ever seen. Period. The whole key is to cut your losers. No time for hesitation.
I'm not entirely convinced that the bulls are done. We'll find out soon enough. Watch the BKX to find out. It's been fun to have some longs for a change but I will not hesitate to go back on the attack and start selling again.
It's Tuesday, Let's Sell
The market is getting beat like a drum in early trading. Still net long and not real concerned by this weakness. Not unexpected that we would gravitate back towards 1292 on the S&P. Financials are weak but I think this is consolidation still, leading to the inevitable rollover, but not quite yet. I expect maybe one more bounce. Without it this market will unravel faster than your broker's cheap suit.
Shorted a couple of the walking dead financials, WB and LEH. They look to be some of the first to rollover.
The key to being long here is to not to get too aggressive. All of this volatility is, in my mind, a sign of instability. I certainly don't want to be leaning too far in either direction.
Shorted a couple of the walking dead financials, WB and LEH. They look to be some of the first to rollover.
The key to being long here is to not to get too aggressive. All of this volatility is, in my mind, a sign of instability. I certainly don't want to be leaning too far in either direction.
Monday, August 11, 2008
Another Bottom?
This one is a thing of beauty.
Buying the double bottom on AMLN. Big name in a hot sector. I'm a buyer above $33. In size.
Monday Monday
Going through my watchlist this weekend I saw more bottoms than in a rap video. These bottoms may be short term in nature but regardless, the market has upside here. It almost makes sense to me that as soon as people start to observe that the economy is struggling we would have a big market rally.
A lot of traders are targeting 1320 on the S&P which happens to be the 50% retrace. I think we could go even higher and maybe make a run at the downtrend line coming off the top. Depending on how long it takes us to get there we could see 1350-1375.
The big news ofcourse is the Russia-Georgia conflict. It's not doing much for oil this morning, or gold for that matter which continues to work it's way lower. I love how Bush tries to act all hard saying he has been firm with Putin. If I was Putin I'd tell 'ol George to go pound some dirt and I'm sure he did, in diplomatic terms. The ultimate risk, now that the oil pipeline has already been bombed, is a scenario in which NATO gets involved on the side of Georgia. That would not be good, to say the least. Also, this conflict puts Europe's natty gas supply at risk. This is a fragile situation to say the least.
The market is working higher this morning, which I expect. My shorts are mixed. I think there is downside in Ag. The last thing I did Friday was to short MON. Haven't done too much this morning. Bought some HSY and I'm up a quick buck. Took some profits as well in ITW and RAVN, perhaps that was a bit hasty but it is what it is.
A lot of traders are targeting 1320 on the S&P which happens to be the 50% retrace. I think we could go even higher and maybe make a run at the downtrend line coming off the top. Depending on how long it takes us to get there we could see 1350-1375.
The big news ofcourse is the Russia-Georgia conflict. It's not doing much for oil this morning, or gold for that matter which continues to work it's way lower. I love how Bush tries to act all hard saying he has been firm with Putin. If I was Putin I'd tell 'ol George to go pound some dirt and I'm sure he did, in diplomatic terms. The ultimate risk, now that the oil pipeline has already been bombed, is a scenario in which NATO gets involved on the side of Georgia. That would not be good, to say the least. Also, this conflict puts Europe's natty gas supply at risk. This is a fragile situation to say the least.
The market is working higher this morning, which I expect. My shorts are mixed. I think there is downside in Ag. The last thing I did Friday was to short MON. Haven't done too much this morning. Bought some HSY and I'm up a quick buck. Took some profits as well in ITW and RAVN, perhaps that was a bit hasty but it is what it is.
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