Wow! That was fun. What a bloodbath.
After learning my lesson earlier in the week via my YHOO raping I was "smart" enough to cover a huge WB short and a modest COF short ahead of earnings. Ofcourse, they both got annihilated today. And, as I suspected their earnings sucked. Just goes to show you can't win. Tough market.
Unfortunately I was modestly long this morning. Like the bulls I sat watching my trading account balance slowly disintegrate before my eyes. Down a quick 2%, erasing yesterday's gains.
What did I do? Started selling longs and initiating shorts. Then I took a nap. It's Friday after all. Woke up and the market was still down 200+ but my balance had recovered- down only 1%.
Finished the day down 300 bucks. Ha! I could have easily lost 20 times that. So on one hand I'm patting myself on the back. On the other, I feel like I missed an opportunity to scalp the bulls for big profits today. Damn. I hate the bulls and I'm glad to not count myself amongst them today. Must say, I'm very excited to see my shorts working again after the parabolic rebound of the last few weeks.
Friday, October 19, 2007
Thursday, October 18, 2007
Oil Closed at $89.15 Today. Whew!
Nine handle here we come. I hear Pickens is calling for $100. Sure. Why not?
We'll notice this sooner or later. As consumers that is. The crack spread has collapsed lately and higher per barrel prices have yet to translate in to higher prices for refined product. That won't last. Look for gas prices to head higher.
Geopolitical plays a role here too. Turkey suggesting an incursion into Iraq. Bush talking about WW3 with Iran/Russia. Fun stuff.
We'll notice this sooner or later. As consumers that is. The crack spread has collapsed lately and higher per barrel prices have yet to translate in to higher prices for refined product. That won't last. Look for gas prices to head higher.
Geopolitical plays a role here too. Turkey suggesting an incursion into Iraq. Bush talking about WW3 with Iran/Russia. Fun stuff.
Rookie Mistake and Lesson Learned
So Tuesday I noticed YHOO breaking down. Nice. Shorted 300 shares of that dog.
Now in years past, during earnings season (of which we are in the midst with most major companies reporting this week), I closely followed upcoming earnings report. See, as a trader, it makes sense to avoid positions in which earnings are imminent. You have no advantage since you generally have no idea what the company is going to say.
Lately though I have suffered from news overload. Just decided I don't care much what's in the news. It's all so depressing. Especially when you interpret every piece of news as an indication of impending doom, as I'm apt to do. Long story short, I've not even noted upcoming earnings reports. Just don't care.
Well after initiating the YHOO position, that afternoon they reported. The numbers reported were not as awful as expected. That's the game- expectations. Despite the fact they suck and earnings were totally unspectacular YHOO stock popped $2.50 afterhours. Instant $750 loss- now I care.
So traders, watch for earnings reports! Don't make the same rookie mistake I just did.
Sucks. As per my discipline I have exited some of my favorite positions this AM. COF reports tonight. Covered my short. WB reports tomorrow morning before the bell. Covered my short. Fortunately they were both down big this morning giving me a nice opportunity to exit.
Sure I think there is a good chance WB in particular will not have anything good to say. But banks are black boxes, thanks to mark-to-make-believe accounting and other trickery they could report anything. No advantage for me. No reason to accept the risk of a violent move in reaction to the report.
As for YHOO...I'm gone. My thesis, a technical breakdown imminent, was immediately proven wrong by the market. I'm gone. Discipline folks. Live to fight another day.
Now in years past, during earnings season (of which we are in the midst with most major companies reporting this week), I closely followed upcoming earnings report. See, as a trader, it makes sense to avoid positions in which earnings are imminent. You have no advantage since you generally have no idea what the company is going to say.
Lately though I have suffered from news overload. Just decided I don't care much what's in the news. It's all so depressing. Especially when you interpret every piece of news as an indication of impending doom, as I'm apt to do. Long story short, I've not even noted upcoming earnings reports. Just don't care.
Well after initiating the YHOO position, that afternoon they reported. The numbers reported were not as awful as expected. That's the game- expectations. Despite the fact they suck and earnings were totally unspectacular YHOO stock popped $2.50 afterhours. Instant $750 loss- now I care.
So traders, watch for earnings reports! Don't make the same rookie mistake I just did.
Sucks. As per my discipline I have exited some of my favorite positions this AM. COF reports tonight. Covered my short. WB reports tomorrow morning before the bell. Covered my short. Fortunately they were both down big this morning giving me a nice opportunity to exit.
Sure I think there is a good chance WB in particular will not have anything good to say. But banks are black boxes, thanks to mark-to-make-believe accounting and other trickery they could report anything. No advantage for me. No reason to accept the risk of a violent move in reaction to the report.
As for YHOO...I'm gone. My thesis, a technical breakdown imminent, was immediately proven wrong by the market. I'm gone. Discipline folks. Live to fight another day.
Social Security Benefits to Rise 2.3%, Linked to Infation?
This is another scam. And partial explanation of deliberately understated inflation statistics as reported by Uncle Sam. Social Security benefits are linked to inflation.
Now you can certainly argue that social security is a disaster. It is. And that we should just give people their money back and wrap the whole thing up. No young person who has thought about it, thinks there will be anything left for them in the way of "benefits". But there is no money there now either because Congress spent it already. Ha! Ugggh.
However, society does have some responsibility to those less fortunate. And the purposeful deception of our seniors is wrong. Where is the AARP on this?
Here's the link from Fixed News...Link. Where I lifted this brief explanation.
"The 2.3 percent increase in the cost-of-living adjustment that will go to 50 million Social Security recipients is the smallest in four years even though many prices are rising more quickly this year than last year.
Blame it on the vagaries of how the government computes the annual COLA. The price change is based on the amount the Consumer Price Index increases from July through September from one year to the next."
Now you can certainly argue that social security is a disaster. It is. And that we should just give people their money back and wrap the whole thing up. No young person who has thought about it, thinks there will be anything left for them in the way of "benefits". But there is no money there now either because Congress spent it already. Ha! Ugggh.
However, society does have some responsibility to those less fortunate. And the purposeful deception of our seniors is wrong. Where is the AARP on this?
Here's the link from Fixed News...Link. Where I lifted this brief explanation.
"The 2.3 percent increase in the cost-of-living adjustment that will go to 50 million Social Security recipients is the smallest in four years even though many prices are rising more quickly this year than last year.
Blame it on the vagaries of how the government computes the annual COLA. The price change is based on the amount the Consumer Price Index increases from July through September from one year to the next."
Tuesday, October 16, 2007
Ugly TIC
"The Treasury said net sales of US market assets – including bonds, notes and equities – were $69.3bn in August after a revised inflow of $19.5bn during July. The August outflow exceeded the previous record decline of $21.2bn in March 1990."
FT.com
Worth keeping an eye on the somewhat slimish possibility, or perhaps inevitability, of substantial capital flight in the process of devaluing our currency.
FT.com
Worth keeping an eye on the somewhat slimish possibility, or perhaps inevitability, of substantial capital flight in the process of devaluing our currency.
M-LEC = FRAUD
Here's the latest bailout attempt: ReadMoreHere.
"The proposal essentially transfers assets to a new entity, essentially a ``game of three-card Monte, where unrecognized losses keep getting shuffled around to hide them,'' said Joshua Rosner, a managing director at investment research firm Graham Fisher & Co. in New York. "
"The proposal essentially transfers assets to a new entity, essentially a ``game of three-card Monte, where unrecognized losses keep getting shuffled around to hide them,'' said Joshua Rosner, a managing director at investment research firm Graham Fisher & Co. in New York. "
Monday, October 15, 2007
Get Involved
Express your displeasure to the powers that be. Demand that everyone play by the same rules. Demand that your currency be protected as a store of value.
This petition is a touch over the top. However, considering the circumstances, strong language is warranted.
SignPetitionHere
Seriously.
This petition is a touch over the top. However, considering the circumstances, strong language is warranted.
SignPetitionHere
Seriously.
Be Aware
The summer stock market swoon was led by housing/financial stocks. I've been closely following these names for an indication of what to expect going forward. After a few false starts my bank shorts stuck at the end of last week. They look weak again today. Could the banks lead the market lower again? Possible. I'll be looking for the opportunity to get more aggressive in shorting bank stocks and select housing/finance names. Careful out there.
Marc Faber on CNBC
Highlight of my day: CNBC interview with Marc Faber.
Excerpt:
Mark Haines: So you think the US dollar is on par with the Zimbabwe dollar?
Marc Faber: It's not there yet. But...
FullInterview
Excerpt:
Mark Haines: So you think the US dollar is on par with the Zimbabwe dollar?
Marc Faber: It's not there yet. But...
FullInterview
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