Lennar's $1.25 billion fourth-quarter net loss contributed to a full-year loss that topped $1.94 billion and wiped out earnings from the two previous years combined.
ReadMoreHere
Funny. I rent a Lennar mini-mansion. They make a shitty product. We like to walk through the community and count the for sale signs. Speculation was rampant here and the speculators have a hard time selling when the builder is still selling new units- slashing prices and running full page ads in the local newspaper.
Saturday, January 26, 2008
Friday, January 25, 2008
New Rules
One great thing about trading markets is that you are always learning and refining your technique. Even the greatest traders feel that they could improve. I learned a lot this week via sub-par performance. Rather than discourage me it serves as motivation to improve my skill set. Along those lines I wanted to list a couple rules that will help me in the future.
These apply to stocks, that's what I trade.
These apply to stocks, that's what I trade.
- When the opening bell rings and you are up 3,4,5% instantly- get the fuck out. Now! Don't sit there thinking how right you are. Don't sit there thinking "wow, maybe I'm going to be up 10% today" because that shit ain't gonna happen.
- When you are standing on the train tracks and you start to feel a vibration (even if it's barely discernible)- move! Take on foot off, get ready to run- trim positions or hedge.
- Don't love your positions. Instead love your equity and don't ever let anyone take her away from you.
- You don't need big positions to make big profits. It's tempting to think that with a big enough position you could make hundreds or thousands of (worthless) dollars in minutes or hours but you could lose it just as quickly. Therein lies the problem. Your plan must allow for you to be wrong because you are not always going to be right.
That's all for now. Eventually I want to compose a comprehensive list which is task I've never completed.
Sending Out A Test Balloon
Initiated five fresh short positions into this morning's strength. Trying to ease back in ever so gently. We'll see how it goes but if I'm wrong, I'm gone.
Let's see who wants to be long going into the weekend.
UPDATE: Damn I'm good. Took a little nap and woke up richer.
Let's see who wants to be long going into the weekend.
UPDATE: Damn I'm good. Took a little nap and woke up richer.
Hibernation Waning
Seeing an awful lot of opportunity again. Despite my plan to stay on the sidelines I'm starting to like the set-up here. My watchlist, nearly empty yesterday, is again teeming with shorts.
Futures trading higher tonight. We get a higher open and I'll likely start selling a bit- especially if it fades. If we open and stay strong all day I may continue to wait. Feel like waiting is the smart play (and we should run higher) but when that nice set-up happens I have to take it.
I went to bed last night with no risk. Took none today. Nice break and now I'm ready to start cracking some skulls.
Don't love the idea of putting too much on the line ahead of the Fed. Although it seems disappointment is a distinct possibility.
Futures trading higher tonight. We get a higher open and I'll likely start selling a bit- especially if it fades. If we open and stay strong all day I may continue to wait. Feel like waiting is the smart play (and we should run higher) but when that nice set-up happens I have to take it.
I went to bed last night with no risk. Took none today. Nice break and now I'm ready to start cracking some skulls.
Don't love the idea of putting too much on the line ahead of the Fed. Although it seems disappointment is a distinct possibility.
Thursday, January 24, 2008
Broken Routine
On my seven month winning streak I have settled into a now familiar routine. Lately at least that partially consists of finding stocks to sell and cursing bulls.
Now I sit on the sidelines feeling like I have no purpose or utility. Spent the morning watching cartoons and "The Cosby Show" and "A Different World" with my infant son. Always liked Dwayne Wayne. Sinbad is cool. Had some leftover pasta for lunch.
Keeping an eye on the market as it yo-yos back and forth wildly and without any direction. Trying not to watch too much. As much as I want to be out, looking at it makes me want to trade it.
Historically I'm not too good at sitting on the sidelines. No matter what my instincts tell me. Couldn't resist entirely and shorted some LAZ- low risk with a stop just above $35. See.
One parting observation: Jon Stewart desperately needs his writers back.
UPDATE: Closed LAZ short for quick lunch money profit. Bet it goes lower from here but I'm not putting any money on it.
Now I sit on the sidelines feeling like I have no purpose or utility. Spent the morning watching cartoons and "The Cosby Show" and "A Different World" with my infant son. Always liked Dwayne Wayne. Sinbad is cool. Had some leftover pasta for lunch.
Keeping an eye on the market as it yo-yos back and forth wildly and without any direction. Trying not to watch too much. As much as I want to be out, looking at it makes me want to trade it.
Historically I'm not too good at sitting on the sidelines. No matter what my instincts tell me. Couldn't resist entirely and shorted some LAZ- low risk with a stop just above $35. See.
One parting observation: Jon Stewart desperately needs his writers back.
UPDATE: Closed LAZ short for quick lunch money profit. Bet it goes lower from here but I'm not putting any money on it.
The Gameplan
After closing it down and going flat yesterday afternoon the market proceeded to completely and utterly de-ball the bears. We ended up a couple hundred points on the DOW. The range for the day was something like 630 pts (or 5%-ish)! That's ridiculous. If you can trade this market, you can trade any market.
I was laying on the beach with my profits safely on the sidelines. Life is good.
You would think as a bear I would be rooting for the market to go down hard immediately. You'd be wrong. I don't want to see this thing crash or go down all at once. I can't trade that. We need this rally (bulls and bears both) to calm things down a bit. Frankly this last week or so has been very stressful and we need to take the edge off.
12,500 on the DOW seems like a good short-term target but I'd really like to see 13K. Think of how many bulls we could sucker back in on a rally of that magnitude. For us to see 13K Bernanke is going to have to give the market another hit off the pipe (50Bps is what they want). Not sure that will happen but he is the market's bitch so anything is possible. I'll probably try to sit tight until the Fed announcement on Wednesday, then re-evaluate. I could see a scenario in which the bearded one disappoints the market and we go down from there but hope to see something more sustained to the upside.
Worth noting: the metals have held up nicely.
I was laying on the beach with my profits safely on the sidelines. Life is good.
You would think as a bear I would be rooting for the market to go down hard immediately. You'd be wrong. I don't want to see this thing crash or go down all at once. I can't trade that. We need this rally (bulls and bears both) to calm things down a bit. Frankly this last week or so has been very stressful and we need to take the edge off.
12,500 on the DOW seems like a good short-term target but I'd really like to see 13K. Think of how many bulls we could sucker back in on a rally of that magnitude. For us to see 13K Bernanke is going to have to give the market another hit off the pipe (50Bps is what they want). Not sure that will happen but he is the market's bitch so anything is possible. I'll probably try to sit tight until the Fed announcement on Wednesday, then re-evaluate. I could see a scenario in which the bearded one disappoints the market and we go down from there but hope to see something more sustained to the upside.
Worth noting: the metals have held up nicely.
Wednesday, January 23, 2008
Sweet Jesus
We've lifted a good 200 pts off the lows now. The volatility is insane! I have cut my largest positions back to a more manageable size and put on a hedge. I still remain net short- 10 shorts, 2 longs (added one this morning) and a hedge which will come off by day's end.
UPDATE: Make that 300 pts. Unreal! Back to flat on the day. I took off my hedge too early (for a nice profit) and covered a couple other things. Still net short, but to a lesser degree. Stops are in place. Today could have gone better for me as too many profits have been returned to the market gods- like yesterday. But I'm up. A bounce would be just fine with me. Let's all just calm down a bit.
UPDATE II: 400 pts now. I'm gone. Basically flat. Not pleased with today's P/L considering where I was this morning but I'm still up (some). Now that I'm off the train tracks I hope we rally 500 pts from here. Go Bulls! Sometimes the hardest thing to do is admit when you are wrong and at least for this very moment it's wrong to be short just about anything. Hopefully we rally big thereby offering better entry points from which I can further emasculate these bulls.
Off to the beach. Have a nice day.
UPDATE: Make that 300 pts. Unreal! Back to flat on the day. I took off my hedge too early (for a nice profit) and covered a couple other things. Still net short, but to a lesser degree. Stops are in place. Today could have gone better for me as too many profits have been returned to the market gods- like yesterday. But I'm up. A bounce would be just fine with me. Let's all just calm down a bit.
UPDATE II: 400 pts now. I'm gone. Basically flat. Not pleased with today's P/L considering where I was this morning but I'm still up (some). Now that I'm off the train tracks I hope we rally 500 pts from here. Go Bulls! Sometimes the hardest thing to do is admit when you are wrong and at least for this very moment it's wrong to be short just about anything. Hopefully we rally big thereby offering better entry points from which I can further emasculate these bulls.
Off to the beach. Have a nice day.
Now What?
We've tested the lows- trading just now to 11,644 on the DOW. The dip buyers are out, calling a bottom I'm sure. I want to get out of the way but I love my positions and I've decided to sit tight.
Only thing I did was to take off my long position in REW which is a 2x short technology ETF (up 16% this week). Considered covering my DECK short- seeing as it's down $16 today- but I think it's a trend line break and likely to trade much lower eventually. See if I can stick with it.
Bulls better hope these lows hold.
Only thing I did was to take off my long position in REW which is a 2x short technology ETF (up 16% this week). Considered covering my DECK short- seeing as it's down $16 today- but I think it's a trend line break and likely to trade much lower eventually. See if I can stick with it.
Bulls better hope these lows hold.
Goddamn It...
...I hate this fucking stock. I short it and it goes against me. I cover and it reverses.
BXP- one day you will break support and I will be waiting. It might actually be done bouncing higher here but I'm a little bit gun shy considering my recent experience.
Courage in the Face of Uncertainty
I could probably count on one hand the number of times I've been as lopsidedly short as I am right now. After the action yesterday morning (potentially a key reversal), to stand in there in the afternoon and be a major seller was perhaps one of the ballsiest moves I've ever made. Sure I was uncertain (even taking down some exposure into the close out of fear) but I stuck to what has been working. Stuck to my discipline.
Now, I intend to be paid for my foresight.
Must say- I've talked a lot about the potential for the "shorting opportunity of a lifetime" and (not looking at the indexes but just individual issues) I'd have to say it is more or less right here right now. Technically yesterday afternoon, and I nailed it.
Now, I intend to be paid for my foresight.
Must say- I've talked a lot about the potential for the "shorting opportunity of a lifetime" and (not looking at the indexes but just individual issues) I'd have to say it is more or less right here right now. Technically yesterday afternoon, and I nailed it.
Tuesday, January 22, 2008
Whiplash!
Well we opened today as the futures indicated- down about 460 pts five minutes after the bell. How much worse would it have been without the panic 75 Bps emergency inter-meeting Fed cut? Anyway, from the lows we then proceeded to rally 430 pts- virtually in a straight line- erasing most of the losses.
As a bear this is a gift. Not only does the market now present you with better entry points but in the process Bernanke used some heavy artillery. That shady bearded bastard only has so much ammunition. Now the inter-meeting cut is out of the way. We know the addict will get even more crack when they meet next week.
Today the dip buyers were out in full force in the belief that we have been saved by the Fed. Oh and the "second half is going to be really great." I tend to disagree. We are in the early innings of this unwinding. There is a whole closet full of shoes waiting to drop.
I sucked today. Really did. First bad day of the new year. I KNEW LAST NIGHT EXACTLY WHAT WOULD HAPPEN and still botched it somehow. Didn't cover (as I intended to) my shorts into the weakness this morning. Looking a gift horse in the eye. My broker's website (those dirty hatfuckers) CRASHED (which I actually had considered also ahead of time) and was down for two hours as the market shot straight up. After that I generated a bunch of commissions as I had no idea what the fuck I was doing- changing my mind every 10 minutes.
Bottom line. Once I settled down and ran through the charts on my watchlist I saw a bunch of appealing opportunities on the short side. Started selling and by the time I stopped had an awful lot of exposure- risk. Problem is, I could see the DOW rallying a good 500 points higher from here. Scary. Perhaps ill-advised. I'm willing to risk it because I feel it's the disciplined move to make. I have been successful by making low risk trades and cutting my losers. The charts I see are beautiful. There are a bunch of near-perfect set-ups. If I'm wrong I'm gone.
Either I am wrong- in which case I go flat-ish into the Fed meeting securing a great month based on what I did early on. Or I'm right and win big. I should know real soon.
AAPL disappointment should help.
As a bear this is a gift. Not only does the market now present you with better entry points but in the process Bernanke used some heavy artillery. That shady bearded bastard only has so much ammunition. Now the inter-meeting cut is out of the way. We know the addict will get even more crack when they meet next week.
Today the dip buyers were out in full force in the belief that we have been saved by the Fed. Oh and the "second half is going to be really great." I tend to disagree. We are in the early innings of this unwinding. There is a whole closet full of shoes waiting to drop.
I sucked today. Really did. First bad day of the new year. I KNEW LAST NIGHT EXACTLY WHAT WOULD HAPPEN and still botched it somehow. Didn't cover (as I intended to) my shorts into the weakness this morning. Looking a gift horse in the eye. My broker's website (those dirty hatfuckers) CRASHED (which I actually had considered also ahead of time) and was down for two hours as the market shot straight up. After that I generated a bunch of commissions as I had no idea what the fuck I was doing- changing my mind every 10 minutes.
Bottom line. Once I settled down and ran through the charts on my watchlist I saw a bunch of appealing opportunities on the short side. Started selling and by the time I stopped had an awful lot of exposure- risk. Problem is, I could see the DOW rallying a good 500 points higher from here. Scary. Perhaps ill-advised. I'm willing to risk it because I feel it's the disciplined move to make. I have been successful by making low risk trades and cutting my losers. The charts I see are beautiful. There are a bunch of near-perfect set-ups. If I'm wrong I'm gone.
Either I am wrong- in which case I go flat-ish into the Fed meeting securing a great month based on what I did early on. Or I'm right and win big. I should know real soon.
AAPL disappointment should help.
Dislocation!
Today is going to be nuts. DOW futures down 500 overnight, S&P futures down 60. Bernanke cuts 75 Bps in an attempt to delay the inevitable. Paulson out banging the table on a stimulus plan.
Usually avoid watching CNBS but I couldn't resist this morning. Funny shit- I really think Jim Cramer's head might spin right off his shoulders. Gotta get back to work. Much much more to say on all this later. Good luck out there.
Usually avoid watching CNBS but I couldn't resist this morning. Funny shit- I really think Jim Cramer's head might spin right off his shoulders. Gotta get back to work. Much much more to say on all this later. Good luck out there.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
