Covered my ICE short. Just like to take profits. It goes much much lower over time, matter of fact I'd say it has 50 points of downside but my time horizon is days to weeks not weeks to months. Captured a quick 7 plus points (since yesterday), a small gift from Mother Market. OK fine. I will revisit the idea once more should it bounce.
Most traders make the mistake of thinking only about their potential profits. However, I'm looking at risk. Should the market decide to really bounce ICE will be 10 points higher in the blink of an eye.
Today I have no interest in trading stocks. I've been laying on the couch watching Wimbledon instead. If I was interested I'd be selling LRCX. If I was a day trader I'd also have been selling LRCX like crazy @ 36. But I am neither interested, nor a day trader.
Thursday, July 3, 2008
If At First You Don't Succeed...
...blah blah blah.
Shorted TOL again this morning. I swear it hates me. I short it, it bounces, I cover. Rinse and repeat. Like marriage and McDonalds hamburgers, very unsatisfying.
Anyway, fuck that shit. Eventually it cracks. Mark my word. It will trade in the single digits before next summer.
Does anyone else find it difficult to initiate short sales into a gazillion point drop? Thought so. As for today's action, expect the bulls to put on a brave face buy into the feel good Fourth of July rally.
Shorted TOL again this morning. I swear it hates me. I short it, it bounces, I cover. Rinse and repeat. Like marriage and McDonalds hamburgers, very unsatisfying.
Anyway, fuck that shit. Eventually it cracks. Mark my word. It will trade in the single digits before next summer.
Does anyone else find it difficult to initiate short sales into a gazillion point drop? Thought so. As for today's action, expect the bulls to put on a brave face buy into the feel good Fourth of July rally.
Quick Word of Warning
So I go take a nap and wake up to see the DOW another 80 points lower. That's some bullshit. On the day we traded down 1.5% and I was up 1.5%. OK I guess but somewhat disappointing. I feel like I missed some opportunities today.
Tomorrow is a shortened session which is likely to be quite interesting. Employment report and the ECB announcement on the docket before a long holiday weekend.
The lows on the S&P were penetrated today. A whole bunch of momentum stocks were shellacked including, but not limited to, coal, steel, ag and oil. Allow me to reiterate that we are completely fucked. Period. Don't try to sell me some bullshit about a second half recovery or the Fed is gonna save us. Ain't gonna happen.
It is not too late to sell. If you've been in denial this whole time you better start to take action ASAP. Raise cash, get out of debt and start living within your means. What happens if you get fired from your job? Are you prepared, just in case?
The time will come where there will be nowhere to hide. The pain is not even close to being done and I'd argue it's just getting started. This entire country is in for one big wake up call. Or should I say margin call?
Tomorrow is a shortened session which is likely to be quite interesting. Employment report and the ECB announcement on the docket before a long holiday weekend.
The lows on the S&P were penetrated today. A whole bunch of momentum stocks were shellacked including, but not limited to, coal, steel, ag and oil. Allow me to reiterate that we are completely fucked. Period. Don't try to sell me some bullshit about a second half recovery or the Fed is gonna save us. Ain't gonna happen.
It is not too late to sell. If you've been in denial this whole time you better start to take action ASAP. Raise cash, get out of debt and start living within your means. What happens if you get fired from your job? Are you prepared, just in case?
The time will come where there will be nowhere to hide. The pain is not even close to being done and I'd argue it's just getting started. This entire country is in for one big wake up call. Or should I say margin call?
Wednesday, July 2, 2008
Just Chillin'
Provided the market hangs in there for a couple more days I'll probably just sit on my hands until after the long holiday weekend. Must say it's nice to not be tethered to the market today. I have so little capital at risk that I've just been goofing off all morning. For a change I'm not sweating every little squiggly line up and down.
So I'll just chill out and watch in delight as the mo-mo crowd gets a swift kick to the balls via cratering coal and steel stocks. Ouch. That shit's gotta hurt.
Maybe I'll go for a jog, take a dip in the pool and then a nap. Napping is one discipline for which I have nearly unmatched aptitude. I'm a talented fellow indeed.
In the past I've had a hard time stepping back from the market, feeling as if I had to play every move. As I gain experience though I realize that all of my greatest gains are AHEAD of me. Besides it's best to step back some on the heels of a ridiculously profitable run.
So I'll just chill out and watch in delight as the mo-mo crowd gets a swift kick to the balls via cratering coal and steel stocks. Ouch. That shit's gotta hurt.
Maybe I'll go for a jog, take a dip in the pool and then a nap. Napping is one discipline for which I have nearly unmatched aptitude. I'm a talented fellow indeed.
In the past I've had a hard time stepping back from the market, feeling as if I had to play every move. As I gain experience though I realize that all of my greatest gains are AHEAD of me. Besides it's best to step back some on the heels of a ridiculously profitable run.
Let's Review
At the end of April I suggested a few restaurant stocks to be sold. Let's review.
BOBE was trading @ $27. It's now around $28 but in the interim traded as high as $34. Loss!
DIN (formerly known as I-HoP) was trading @ $48. Now $36. Big Win!
Finally we have my old friend CBRL. Told you to sell @ $34. Now $22. They just warned the other day. Big Win.
So I was 2 and 1. In the winners I was right to the tune of 12 points each. My thesis that higher oil prices would hit these roadside diners was correct I'd say.
Class dismissed.
The Plan For Today
Sit and watch.
Hopefully the market can trade higher (although I remain somewhat skeptical). My exposure is very limited having taken profits yesterday. Made myself some walking around money this morning selling the SII purchased at yesterday's close up $2.50 first thing.
Hopefully the market can trade higher (although I remain somewhat skeptical). My exposure is very limited having taken profits yesterday. Made myself some walking around money this morning selling the SII purchased at yesterday's close up $2.50 first thing.
Tuesday, July 1, 2008
A Sustained Bounce?
Repeat after me: highly unlikely.
I continue to hope for a bounce in order to alleviate the oversold condition. I'd settle for a two or three day rally. That would be super.
I continue to hope for a bounce in order to alleviate the oversold condition. I'd settle for a two or three day rally. That would be super.
This Market is Nuts
If you count the lower open this morning we have had four swings in excess of 100 DOW points just today. Sheesh. Can you say whiplash? This shit's nuts. Great for daytraders but otherwise nauseating.
Maybe this is setting up for a bounce but I feel generally like these broad, seemingly schizophrenic gyrations back and forth are representative of a market under extreme pressure. A bounce higher would be great. I have a lot of dry powder and would love to reposition at higher prices. Any sustained rally would be a gift to the bears and another opportunity to sell. Just keep in mind the chances of an outright crash are currently elevated (yet remain as always very low).
Maybe this is setting up for a bounce but I feel generally like these broad, seemingly schizophrenic gyrations back and forth are representative of a market under extreme pressure. A bounce higher would be great. I have a lot of dry powder and would love to reposition at higher prices. Any sustained rally would be a gift to the bears and another opportunity to sell. Just keep in mind the chances of an outright crash are currently elevated (yet remain as always very low).
I'm Just Sayin'
You know, when it comes to your money, it's not a very good idea to listen to some third tier blogger on the internets. Feel free to disregard everything I say (I would expect nothing less)...
BUT...you better own some gold.
Covered...
...the last of my very chunky, very profitable IWM short position. Hit my target, which was a four point move from 72 to 68. The market gods are smiling on me and I'm starting to feel rich again. Must be about time for a bounce.
New Highs, New Lows
Lows for the market. Highs for myself.
Only real complaint I have is getting shaken out of my RDC long. I think it still probably goes higher, but not today. Problem is the position was chunky and my number one priority is to control risk regardless of my personal affection for any one position. So rather than just sit there getting rolled on I will live to fight another day. Not like I can't buy it back.
Energy names still get the benefit of the doubt as far as I'm concerned but at some point they will become a source of funds for moronic money managers looking to raise cash any way possible. Can you imagine if the the only place to hide becomes a bloodbath? That shit will be ug-ly. Just something to think about. Better hide the kitchen knives just in case.
Only real complaint I have is getting shaken out of my RDC long. I think it still probably goes higher, but not today. Problem is the position was chunky and my number one priority is to control risk regardless of my personal affection for any one position. So rather than just sit there getting rolled on I will live to fight another day. Not like I can't buy it back.
Energy names still get the benefit of the doubt as far as I'm concerned but at some point they will become a source of funds for moronic money managers looking to raise cash any way possible. Can you imagine if the the only place to hide becomes a bloodbath? That shit will be ug-ly. Just something to think about. Better hide the kitchen knives just in case.
Also...
Sold my SRS this morning north of $108. I think it goes higher, atleast $120-ish in the not too distant future but I got pretty close to my short term target. Made nine points in a week and a half so I'm cool with that. What can I say, I love to take profits. Looks pretty smart to have done so thus far. A big profit on a leveraged bet like that can disappear very quickly.
I will wait and if given the opportunity re-load at a lower level.
I will wait and if given the opportunity re-load at a lower level.
New Position
I have about 30 stocks on my breakdown list this morning. Facing severe weakness at the opening bell has me proceeding cautiously as my rules dictate to never chase a trade. However I did initiate a fresh position first thing. Here's hoping TM is about to crack. If it trades much below current levels (and long term support) it could have a lot of downside. As always I have a tight stop to control my risk and if I'm wrong I'm gone.
Monday, June 30, 2008
Close the Book on the First Half of 2008
Despite a complete lack of focus at times I've made it through the first half unscathed. I suffered one of my periodic draw downs in March-April but have now vaulted back to my personal highs with a ridiculously profitable June.
I'm just now hitting my stride and have a multitude of wins planned for the second half. Despite a merely average performance in the first half I am paying my bills and keeping the lights on. Those of you who continue to doubt me can go fuck yourselves.
As the market continues to hit new lows in the second half I will be hitting new highs. Count on it.
UPDATE: On the basis of gross profit June 2008 has been the best month I've ever had. I will dominate in the second half.
I'm just now hitting my stride and have a multitude of wins planned for the second half. Despite a merely average performance in the first half I am paying my bills and keeping the lights on. Those of you who continue to doubt me can go fuck yourselves.
As the market continues to hit new lows in the second half I will be hitting new highs. Count on it.
UPDATE: On the basis of gross profit June 2008 has been the best month I've ever had. I will dominate in the second half.
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