Rolled my ass out of bed at around ten this morning. Walked and fed the dog. Made a big pot of coffee, the good stuff, not that cheap shit you drink. Then I sat down in front of my laptop for the next five hours organizing watchlists and running through charts. More than halfway done now, I can say that this upcoming week's watchlist is going to be a good one.
Around 3:30 I had a small bowl of beans and rice.
Next I went and ran 4 miles in the blazing hot sun. Took a quick dip in the pool, before finishing up with some weightlifting.
This is how I will defeat my opponents. I will outwork them.
Saturday, August 2, 2008
Friday, August 1, 2008
Off to the Beach
Calling it a day.
Have just a couple of nice gains and a bunch of small losses to show for my time this week. I can find better things to do, which is why I'm outta here. Have a nice weekend.
Have just a couple of nice gains and a bunch of small losses to show for my time this week. I can find better things to do, which is why I'm outta here. Have a nice weekend.
Thursday, July 31, 2008
Good Riddance
Coming into today net long, watching the market get crushed and still coming out ahead is a small victory. Small victories aren't going to get me anywhere.
It occurred to me last night that getting long here is bit too cute which is why I took some longs off the table first thing this morning.
Honestly, I couldn't be happier now that July is over. It's been a month of distractions (vacation) and whipsaws (everywhere). In the end the market was flat for the month. Maybe now we can find some direction.
After trading like a god for about six weeks the last couple, since returning from vacation, have been tough yet I've not sustained major losses. Therein lies the key: limit your damage when things aren't going well. I feel more confident than ever that my next big hit is just over the horizon, which is important because it keeps me from pulling out my hair after a month like this
It occurred to me last night that getting long here is bit too cute which is why I took some longs off the table first thing this morning.
Honestly, I couldn't be happier now that July is over. It's been a month of distractions (vacation) and whipsaws (everywhere). In the end the market was flat for the month. Maybe now we can find some direction.
After trading like a god for about six weeks the last couple, since returning from vacation, have been tough yet I've not sustained major losses. Therein lies the key: limit your damage when things aren't going well. I feel more confident than ever that my next big hit is just over the horizon, which is important because it keeps me from pulling out my hair after a month like this
Limping Home
My policy on gifts: don't return them. So after having bought a big fat chunk of MOT yesterday and turning on my laptop this morning and seeing it up 8%, well, you can guess. Sold it quick. Took the 8% gain instead of waiting for the 12% gain. Fuck it.
Also sold LLL too quick before it ramped another buck. As much as I try to hold my winners sometimes I lack the discipline to do so. What is there to say? I love to take profits and in the current market environment gains vanish quickly.
July has been a roller coaster. Up huge until this week when I got hammered, I'm now limping toward the finish line. The (somewhat premature) final result: I win again (in unspectacular fashion). Fine. I'm just hanging in until I get that fat pitch right down the middle.
UPDATE: MOT up 13%.
Also sold LLL too quick before it ramped another buck. As much as I try to hold my winners sometimes I lack the discipline to do so. What is there to say? I love to take profits and in the current market environment gains vanish quickly.
July has been a roller coaster. Up huge until this week when I got hammered, I'm now limping toward the finish line. The (somewhat premature) final result: I win again (in unspectacular fashion). Fine. I'm just hanging in until I get that fat pitch right down the middle.
UPDATE: MOT up 13%.
Wednesday, July 30, 2008
Got Drunk, Bought Stocks
First things first. Sold my trading position in GLD. Stop was $90. That level was violated at the open and I'm out. No emotion. Up is down and black is white. So be it. Not unexpected.
With that bit of business out of the way I proceeded to go on a drunken buying binge like some coked up money manager. Regardless of how it works out I feel pretty good about having covered most all of my shorts yesterday. Today would be painful had I tried to justify my positions rather than just reacting to the market's verdict.
As a trader you are going to be wrong about half the time. The whole key is to admit it quickly and cut your losers.
With that bit of business out of the way I proceeded to go on a drunken buying binge like some coked up money manager. Regardless of how it works out I feel pretty good about having covered most all of my shorts yesterday. Today would be painful had I tried to justify my positions rather than just reacting to the market's verdict.
As a trader you are going to be wrong about half the time. The whole key is to admit it quickly and cut your losers.
Fresh and Clean
Wednesday's watchlist is very different. My list has more breakouts than breakdowns and more buys than sells. It's also much shorter and tighter. In previous rallies I have sat out or worse yet tried to short into it too early. This time (should this rally have legs) I will look to get long. Been net long very rarely since last August. Think it might be nice for a change.
The erroneous theory, I gather, is that Merrill's huge write off, fundraising and sale of toxic assets marks the bottom. Never mind that the toxic paper sale was 75% financed by Merrill themselves and that two weeks ago they claimed not to need capital (was that a bald faced lie? and where the fuck is the SEC on this?). But now the market can function again and other impaired institutions can follow Merrill's lead. Divest, write off, nirvana. Or so the theory goes.
I agree that it's a step in the process. But I ask you this: who the hell is going to buy all this bad paper? There is so much of it everywhere. Besides if Merrill said this paper was worth 40 cents on the dollar two weeks ago and now they sell it for 20 cents on the dollar, what does that tell you about the balance sheets of other financial institutions? Pure fiction.
The psychology is such that bulls believe every disaster to be the bottom. Ultimately I expect us to go much lower on the averages but not in a straight line. We are due for a rally, before another fall. So again I'm rooting for a good old fashioned drunken rally where money mangers can do a few lines and buy stocks with reckless abandon. If nothing else I hope it might relieve this white knuckle feeling we've had lately.
Either way, rally or no, I will capitalize. I will trade long or short. I will cut my losers without hesitation. I will continue to learn and ultimately dominate. Put that in your pipe and smoke it.
The erroneous theory, I gather, is that Merrill's huge write off, fundraising and sale of toxic assets marks the bottom. Never mind that the toxic paper sale was 75% financed by Merrill themselves and that two weeks ago they claimed not to need capital (was that a bald faced lie? and where the fuck is the SEC on this?). But now the market can function again and other impaired institutions can follow Merrill's lead. Divest, write off, nirvana. Or so the theory goes.
I agree that it's a step in the process. But I ask you this: who the hell is going to buy all this bad paper? There is so much of it everywhere. Besides if Merrill said this paper was worth 40 cents on the dollar two weeks ago and now they sell it for 20 cents on the dollar, what does that tell you about the balance sheets of other financial institutions? Pure fiction.
The psychology is such that bulls believe every disaster to be the bottom. Ultimately I expect us to go much lower on the averages but not in a straight line. We are due for a rally, before another fall. So again I'm rooting for a good old fashioned drunken rally where money mangers can do a few lines and buy stocks with reckless abandon. If nothing else I hope it might relieve this white knuckle feeling we've had lately.
Either way, rally or no, I will capitalize. I will trade long or short. I will cut my losers without hesitation. I will continue to learn and ultimately dominate. Put that in your pipe and smoke it.
Tuesday, July 29, 2008
Pain
Dow up almost 2.5% today. I got beat like a red-headed step child.
Today's action explains my hesitancy to pull the trigger. Up 200, down 200- fuck that.
So having officially capitulated, I am now net long. It sucks but what are you going to do? If I have to get long to make money I will do that. Roll with the punches and live to fight another day. Easy come, easy go. Yada yada yada.
Financials in the green and oil in the red is a powerful potion for higher stock prices. I still think we could see another 600 points of upside on the Dow. I might even get long some beaten down financials just for shits and giggles.
Today's action explains my hesitancy to pull the trigger. Up 200, down 200- fuck that.
So having officially capitulated, I am now net long. It sucks but what are you going to do? If I have to get long to make money I will do that. Roll with the punches and live to fight another day. Easy come, easy go. Yada yada yada.
Financials in the green and oil in the red is a powerful potion for higher stock prices. I still think we could see another 600 points of upside on the Dow. I might even get long some beaten down financials just for shits and giggles.
Monday, July 28, 2008
Taking Advantage of a Bad Situation
I expect this latest bailout to have results but not those intended. Having now taken the financial black hole that is Fannie and Freddie onto the public balance sheet and having previously taken billions in bad loans in exchange for treasuries I contend that "the full faith and credit of the US government" is no longer worth a goddamn thing! We are now officially the United States of sub-prime.
These actions are unprecedented. We have opened a new chapter in American history. This is the era of crony capitalism.
I expect interest rates to ramp up over time. I've done some research and found some ideas to take advantage of this nascent trend. Put SDP, PST and TBT on your watchlist. I have taken no action as of yet but these will be on my radar. When treasuries weaken you want to own PST and TBT. As a result, interest rates go higher which is quite bad for utilities and that's where SDP comes in.
These actions are unprecedented. We have opened a new chapter in American history. This is the era of crony capitalism.
I expect interest rates to ramp up over time. I've done some research and found some ideas to take advantage of this nascent trend. Put SDP, PST and TBT on your watchlist. I have taken no action as of yet but these will be on my radar. When treasuries weaken you want to own PST and TBT. As a result, interest rates go higher which is quite bad for utilities and that's where SDP comes in.
Well Said
I enjoyed this quote from Peter Schiff. He says it better than I could. I encourage you to check out his writings at http://europac.net/#.
"Unfortunately, the laws of capitalism are now demanding that home prices continue to fall precipitously. But, based on the speed in which our government, public and financial institutions are willing to abandon free market principals at the first whiff of economic pain, the likelihood that this impulse will take hold is increasingly remote. So hunker down as the United States finds itself on the express track to state socialism with Paulson’s Bazooka locked, loaded and pointed right at us. When the government pulls the trigger the blast will blow the dollar, and what’s left of our capitalist economy, to smithereens."
"Unfortunately, the laws of capitalism are now demanding that home prices continue to fall precipitously. But, based on the speed in which our government, public and financial institutions are willing to abandon free market principals at the first whiff of economic pain, the likelihood that this impulse will take hold is increasingly remote. So hunker down as the United States finds itself on the express track to state socialism with Paulson’s Bazooka locked, loaded and pointed right at us. When the government pulls the trigger the blast will blow the dollar, and what’s left of our capitalist economy, to smithereens."
Back to Swimming with the Sharks
Back to my trading turret full time. Vacation is a distant memory.
Got stopped out of PFE. Getting long; what the hell was I thinking?
As for today, it sucked. The market is down a solid two percent and I'm up only one despite starting the day net short. I consider that under performance. There are an abundance of opportunities out there but from time to time I'm hesitant to pull the trigger. Now is one of those times.
The market's lack of enthusiasm for the latest bailout (that of Fannie and Freddie) is an ominous sign indeed. If the bailouts stop working the gates of hell will yawn wide. Bet on it.
Today I got short a few more names: COF, GGP and STT. Those moves accounted for better than half my gains. As I've stated repeatedly as long as the financials remain broken the market will remain broken.
Got stopped out of PFE. Getting long; what the hell was I thinking?
As for today, it sucked. The market is down a solid two percent and I'm up only one despite starting the day net short. I consider that under performance. There are an abundance of opportunities out there but from time to time I'm hesitant to pull the trigger. Now is one of those times.
The market's lack of enthusiasm for the latest bailout (that of Fannie and Freddie) is an ominous sign indeed. If the bailouts stop working the gates of hell will yawn wide. Bet on it.
Today I got short a few more names: COF, GGP and STT. Those moves accounted for better than half my gains. As I've stated repeatedly as long as the financials remain broken the market will remain broken.
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