Could this rally be over already? Seems very possible to me. Yesterday I dipped my toe back in on the short side and today I plan to get more aggressive.
The Fed is running out of ammunition. I'm wary of getting too excited ahead of the next rate cut (Tuesday) but they are starting to lose their grip. Every action they have taken seems to be less and less convincing to market participants. At some point the Fed loses all credibility. We are nearing that point.
I have more short ideas than I care to count with only a small handful of potential longs. At the end of the day I have to trade what the market gives me.
Last night after viewing just a portion of my watchlist I decided it was time to get short again. This morning the futures are down hard making things a bit tricky. I'll play it by ear but my intention is to put money to work.
Thursday, March 13, 2008
Wednesday, March 12, 2008
Tuesday, March 11, 2008
Market (So Far) Failing to Hold 12K
I'm just sayin'...
UPDATE: 12K held decisively. The tired old bulls are in control again. I'm back to the waiting game.
UPDATE: 12K held decisively. The tired old bulls are in control again. I'm back to the waiting game.
Can We Please Just Go Higher?
Might as well take out 12K. I've already taken the hit so I'd like to see a sustained rally thereby allowing me to short the market into oblivion from higher levels.
My exposure is now minimal. I intend to sit on my ass for the rest of the day. I think I'll give my DVR a work-out.
I'm far from sold on the idea that we will trade higher but it would be nice. Who knows?
My exposure is now minimal. I intend to sit on my ass for the rest of the day. I think I'll give my DVR a work-out.
I'm far from sold on the idea that we will trade higher but it would be nice. Who knows?
Good Morning Vietnam! You've Just Been Bombed
Up until about 4:30 last night working, I awoke later than usual at about 9 and what a surprise. The Fed is out to knee-cap me again. Those fuckers. Down 2.5% as I write.
What do you know? Right to 12K on the DOW. That's my line in the sand. I've taken down a few shorts to control risk and am tightly monitoring my stops on all positions. Most have yet to be hit and we're going to have to hold 12K to send me scurrying for cover. Until that happens I will remain unimpressed.
Matter of fact this is probably a gift to the bears. Especially those looking for better entry points. I don't plan to do much today besides play defense. I'm not looking to immediately short into this since it doesn't fit my risk profile. I'll protect my equity first and foremost then re-evaluate when the dust clears a bit.
What do you know? Right to 12K on the DOW. That's my line in the sand. I've taken down a few shorts to control risk and am tightly monitoring my stops on all positions. Most have yet to be hit and we're going to have to hold 12K to send me scurrying for cover. Until that happens I will remain unimpressed.
Matter of fact this is probably a gift to the bears. Especially those looking for better entry points. I don't plan to do much today besides play defense. I'm not looking to immediately short into this since it doesn't fit my risk profile. I'll protect my equity first and foremost then re-evaluate when the dust clears a bit.
Back in the Saddle
On the first trading day of March I said it wasn't too late to sell. That was 500 DOW points ago. Whew! That was a quick 500. Now the consensus seems to be that we are oversold and due for a bounce. Fuck the consensus. Though, I suppose I could see 12K on the DOW one more time. Test those levels from below and see some names rally back to broken trendlines.
More than likely we continue to bleed. Everything is broken. Even the last of the bull markets are breaking. I see almost nowhere to hide. We are in a bear.
You can be certain violent rallies will surprise us out of nowhere but the trend is down. Rallies are selling opportunities.
So there you go. Both sides of the coin. The idea is not to hedge myself (clearly I remain a bear) but to remain flexible to what the market offers. Always remain flexible and never proclaim yourself smarter than the markets.
As for my personal trading, it's been difficult insofar as I withdrew from the markets at the end of last week and as a result ended up poorly positioned to take advantage of the recent swoon. I predicted as much Wednesday afternoon. Murphy's Law.
This morning I came back hungry. Shorted a handful of names and bulked up my exposure (which remains smallish). That worked and I was back to outperforming today. My inclination is to get really aggressive to make up for lost time but I don't make those mistakes anymore. I'm easing back in and letting go of the many attractive opportunities I missed.
Missing opportunities is difficult but new ones will arise. You just have to keep telling yourself that. I finally reached the level where I have the necessary skills to make money consistently over time. That alone is worth more than anything else. Therefore I know for certain new opportunities will present themselves. They were there this morning even after the two important days of action I missed last week.
More than likely we continue to bleed. Everything is broken. Even the last of the bull markets are breaking. I see almost nowhere to hide. We are in a bear.
You can be certain violent rallies will surprise us out of nowhere but the trend is down. Rallies are selling opportunities.
So there you go. Both sides of the coin. The idea is not to hedge myself (clearly I remain a bear) but to remain flexible to what the market offers. Always remain flexible and never proclaim yourself smarter than the markets.
As for my personal trading, it's been difficult insofar as I withdrew from the markets at the end of last week and as a result ended up poorly positioned to take advantage of the recent swoon. I predicted as much Wednesday afternoon. Murphy's Law.
This morning I came back hungry. Shorted a handful of names and bulked up my exposure (which remains smallish). That worked and I was back to outperforming today. My inclination is to get really aggressive to make up for lost time but I don't make those mistakes anymore. I'm easing back in and letting go of the many attractive opportunities I missed.
Missing opportunities is difficult but new ones will arise. You just have to keep telling yourself that. I finally reached the level where I have the necessary skills to make money consistently over time. That alone is worth more than anything else. Therefore I know for certain new opportunities will present themselves. They were there this morning even after the two important days of action I missed last week.
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