Thursday, February 14, 2008
Lying In Wait
I've spent the last week or so swimming against the tide by remaining net short into a huge pump. Last time we got one of these big upward surges I panicked into it covering a number of shorts only to have my viewpoint validated shortly thereafter. This time I've stuck to my bearish convictions. I did however put on some longs last Friday which served as a hedge against my losing short positions and helped me to weather the storm.
My uncle point on the DOW is around 12,750 and I just don't see us getting there. At the moment it's still possible the banks are bottoming but I don't subscribe to that theory. More than likely the banks are setting up to lead us lower once again.
This morning I initiated more short sales. Trying to remain conservative but I feel like that "all in on the short side" moment is close. Hopefully the day's trend (down) continues since it feels nice to be back on the winning side.
My uncle point on the DOW is around 12,750 and I just don't see us getting there. At the moment it's still possible the banks are bottoming but I don't subscribe to that theory. More than likely the banks are setting up to lead us lower once again.
This morning I initiated more short sales. Trying to remain conservative but I feel like that "all in on the short side" moment is close. Hopefully the day's trend (down) continues since it feels nice to be back on the winning side.
Tuesday, February 12, 2008
All Our Problems Are Solved
Not really but that remains the argument of the bullish contingent. Nice rally so far this week- up almost 2% on the DOW. GM, a name I remain stubbornly short, announces the biggest loss ever by an automotive company and rallies hard. Such is the current mindset. GM is going to buyout something like 70,000 more workers. I can only deduce that when GM stops making vehicles it'll be a great stock!
We also have a foreclosure freeze by six major banks in the news. Another attempt to delay the inevitable. The difference between the dot com bubble and the housing bubble is the debt. After the Nasdaq bubble popped we didn't have consumers tied to debt they couldn't service as is now the case.
This is all setting up nicely for those of a bearish mindset. Better entry points await.
As for my trading: I remain ever-so-slightly net short after having added a number of longs on Friday. Good thing I did too as having some longs has made this week bearable. Although I'm getting a pretty good hammering right now. Haven't done much yet this morning though as my stops have yet to be hit. In the meantime I remain excited about some my longs.
We also have a foreclosure freeze by six major banks in the news. Another attempt to delay the inevitable. The difference between the dot com bubble and the housing bubble is the debt. After the Nasdaq bubble popped we didn't have consumers tied to debt they couldn't service as is now the case.
This is all setting up nicely for those of a bearish mindset. Better entry points await.
As for my trading: I remain ever-so-slightly net short after having added a number of longs on Friday. Good thing I did too as having some longs has made this week bearable. Although I'm getting a pretty good hammering right now. Haven't done much yet this morning though as my stops have yet to be hit. In the meantime I remain excited about some my longs.
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