Could this rally be over already? Seems very possible to me. Yesterday I dipped my toe back in on the short side and today I plan to get more aggressive.
The Fed is running out of ammunition. I'm wary of getting too excited ahead of the next rate cut (Tuesday) but they are starting to lose their grip. Every action they have taken seems to be less and less convincing to market participants. At some point the Fed loses all credibility. We are nearing that point.
I have more short ideas than I care to count with only a small handful of potential longs. At the end of the day I have to trade what the market gives me.
Last night after viewing just a portion of my watchlist I decided it was time to get short again. This morning the futures are down hard making things a bit tricky. I'll play it by ear but my intention is to put money to work.
Thursday, March 13, 2008
Wednesday, March 12, 2008
Tuesday, March 11, 2008
Market (So Far) Failing to Hold 12K
I'm just sayin'...
UPDATE: 12K held decisively. The tired old bulls are in control again. I'm back to the waiting game.
UPDATE: 12K held decisively. The tired old bulls are in control again. I'm back to the waiting game.
Can We Please Just Go Higher?
Might as well take out 12K. I've already taken the hit so I'd like to see a sustained rally thereby allowing me to short the market into oblivion from higher levels.
My exposure is now minimal. I intend to sit on my ass for the rest of the day. I think I'll give my DVR a work-out.
I'm far from sold on the idea that we will trade higher but it would be nice. Who knows?
My exposure is now minimal. I intend to sit on my ass for the rest of the day. I think I'll give my DVR a work-out.
I'm far from sold on the idea that we will trade higher but it would be nice. Who knows?
Good Morning Vietnam! You've Just Been Bombed
Up until about 4:30 last night working, I awoke later than usual at about 9 and what a surprise. The Fed is out to knee-cap me again. Those fuckers. Down 2.5% as I write.
What do you know? Right to 12K on the DOW. That's my line in the sand. I've taken down a few shorts to control risk and am tightly monitoring my stops on all positions. Most have yet to be hit and we're going to have to hold 12K to send me scurrying for cover. Until that happens I will remain unimpressed.
Matter of fact this is probably a gift to the bears. Especially those looking for better entry points. I don't plan to do much today besides play defense. I'm not looking to immediately short into this since it doesn't fit my risk profile. I'll protect my equity first and foremost then re-evaluate when the dust clears a bit.
What do you know? Right to 12K on the DOW. That's my line in the sand. I've taken down a few shorts to control risk and am tightly monitoring my stops on all positions. Most have yet to be hit and we're going to have to hold 12K to send me scurrying for cover. Until that happens I will remain unimpressed.
Matter of fact this is probably a gift to the bears. Especially those looking for better entry points. I don't plan to do much today besides play defense. I'm not looking to immediately short into this since it doesn't fit my risk profile. I'll protect my equity first and foremost then re-evaluate when the dust clears a bit.
Back in the Saddle
On the first trading day of March I said it wasn't too late to sell. That was 500 DOW points ago. Whew! That was a quick 500. Now the consensus seems to be that we are oversold and due for a bounce. Fuck the consensus. Though, I suppose I could see 12K on the DOW one more time. Test those levels from below and see some names rally back to broken trendlines.
More than likely we continue to bleed. Everything is broken. Even the last of the bull markets are breaking. I see almost nowhere to hide. We are in a bear.
You can be certain violent rallies will surprise us out of nowhere but the trend is down. Rallies are selling opportunities.
So there you go. Both sides of the coin. The idea is not to hedge myself (clearly I remain a bear) but to remain flexible to what the market offers. Always remain flexible and never proclaim yourself smarter than the markets.
As for my personal trading, it's been difficult insofar as I withdrew from the markets at the end of last week and as a result ended up poorly positioned to take advantage of the recent swoon. I predicted as much Wednesday afternoon. Murphy's Law.
This morning I came back hungry. Shorted a handful of names and bulked up my exposure (which remains smallish). That worked and I was back to outperforming today. My inclination is to get really aggressive to make up for lost time but I don't make those mistakes anymore. I'm easing back in and letting go of the many attractive opportunities I missed.
Missing opportunities is difficult but new ones will arise. You just have to keep telling yourself that. I finally reached the level where I have the necessary skills to make money consistently over time. That alone is worth more than anything else. Therefore I know for certain new opportunities will present themselves. They were there this morning even after the two important days of action I missed last week.
More than likely we continue to bleed. Everything is broken. Even the last of the bull markets are breaking. I see almost nowhere to hide. We are in a bear.
You can be certain violent rallies will surprise us out of nowhere but the trend is down. Rallies are selling opportunities.
So there you go. Both sides of the coin. The idea is not to hedge myself (clearly I remain a bear) but to remain flexible to what the market offers. Always remain flexible and never proclaim yourself smarter than the markets.
As for my personal trading, it's been difficult insofar as I withdrew from the markets at the end of last week and as a result ended up poorly positioned to take advantage of the recent swoon. I predicted as much Wednesday afternoon. Murphy's Law.
This morning I came back hungry. Shorted a handful of names and bulked up my exposure (which remains smallish). That worked and I was back to outperforming today. My inclination is to get really aggressive to make up for lost time but I don't make those mistakes anymore. I'm easing back in and letting go of the many attractive opportunities I missed.
Missing opportunities is difficult but new ones will arise. You just have to keep telling yourself that. I finally reached the level where I have the necessary skills to make money consistently over time. That alone is worth more than anything else. Therefore I know for certain new opportunities will present themselves. They were there this morning even after the two important days of action I missed last week.
Wednesday, March 5, 2008
Hiatus
I want to throw the kitchen sink at this market and short it to zero. Normally I would be aggressively re-positioning here but I can't focus. There are too many distractions in my personal life and I need some time to get things straightened out.
I will not be initiating any new positions for now. In the meantime I have a small handful of positions (mostly shorts) that I'm willing to let run for now. I'm up nicely on the day. Once I get my shit together (hopefully soon) I'll be back with a vengeance. Mark my word.
I will not be initiating any new positions for now. In the meantime I have a small handful of positions (mostly shorts) that I'm willing to let run for now. I'm up nicely on the day. Once I get my shit together (hopefully soon) I'll be back with a vengeance. Mark my word.
March Blues
Yesterday was interesting. At one point we were down something like 220 pts on the DOW. Initially I was up 2% or so until commodity names rolled over. As the market knifed lower throughout the morning though I found myself up just 1%. Frankly I found it frustrating that I wasn't up more amidst substantial weakness. Just sort of had an uneasy feeling about the day.
Sure enough around 3 o'clock CNBS pulled another bailout rumour out of it's ass and we quickly rallied 150+ pts. Such is life as a bear. My gains were erased. Minor losses ensued. My uneasy feeling combined with the reversal combined with support around 12K inspired me to sacrifice positions. Sometimes you just have to throw shit into the fire and clear your head. That's exactly what I did.
Truth is, I fucked up pretty good this last week or so. Presented with great entry points last week I twiddled my thumbs instead acting with conviction and putting capital to work. Sure I caught a couple of nice moves but missed many great opportunities. I've just generally felt uninspired and been distracted by my personal life.
Maybe I'm too comfortable. Maybe I'm distracted. Maybe I'm just full of excuses. Regardless, I've taken a step back and refuse to chase the trades I've missed. It's going to take a solid bounce for me to put money to work. Perhaps I'll be that lucky but my hunch is that I've missed a great opportunity.
As for today, I hardly have enough skin in the game to really give a shit. Hoping the market has found support around 12k for now. More than likely I'll spend my afternoon laying on the beach. Tough break, I know.
Sure enough around 3 o'clock CNBS pulled another bailout rumour out of it's ass and we quickly rallied 150+ pts. Such is life as a bear. My gains were erased. Minor losses ensued. My uneasy feeling combined with the reversal combined with support around 12K inspired me to sacrifice positions. Sometimes you just have to throw shit into the fire and clear your head. That's exactly what I did.
Truth is, I fucked up pretty good this last week or so. Presented with great entry points last week I twiddled my thumbs instead acting with conviction and putting capital to work. Sure I caught a couple of nice moves but missed many great opportunities. I've just generally felt uninspired and been distracted by my personal life.
Maybe I'm too comfortable. Maybe I'm distracted. Maybe I'm just full of excuses. Regardless, I've taken a step back and refuse to chase the trades I've missed. It's going to take a solid bounce for me to put money to work. Perhaps I'll be that lucky but my hunch is that I've missed a great opportunity.
As for today, I hardly have enough skin in the game to really give a shit. Hoping the market has found support around 12k for now. More than likely I'll spend my afternoon laying on the beach. Tough break, I know.
Monday, March 3, 2008
Friday, February 29, 2008
Log It
Bulls got raped today. DOW down 2.5%. I did some raping, up 2%. Good not great . February saw the market down 3% or so. I logged a 9%+ gain.
Enjoy your weekend. I will be enjoying mine with rich man's whiskey.
Enjoy your weekend. I will be enjoying mine with rich man's whiskey.
Tough Day to be a Bull, Good Day to be a Bullfucker
The market is getting hammered this morning and I must say that my performance is less than stellar. Not because I'm losing money but because I'm not making more than I am.
I feel confident in saying that the market will not go to zero today, nor will the bear market end anytime soon. As a result I'm trying not to get too excited and start selling into the hole.
Take a deep breath.
I followed my plan and bulked up my BAC short, sold my MUR (gave back a point and kept the other nine that I made in the last three weeks), trimmed some AUY (to bank profits)...have a chunky short position in GM already in place so I'm comfortable if not happy with my exposure. Oh and I have copious amounts of dry powder. Trimmed my chunky NFX position yesterday and will look to buy on a pullback to support (impressive breakout by the way).
A bounce off the lows would be nice in order to get better entry points but we just keep knifing lower, down 240 pts. on the DOW now.
I feel confident in saying that the market will not go to zero today, nor will the bear market end anytime soon. As a result I'm trying not to get too excited and start selling into the hole.
Take a deep breath.
I followed my plan and bulked up my BAC short, sold my MUR (gave back a point and kept the other nine that I made in the last three weeks), trimmed some AUY (to bank profits)...have a chunky short position in GM already in place so I'm comfortable if not happy with my exposure. Oh and I have copious amounts of dry powder. Trimmed my chunky NFX position yesterday and will look to buy on a pullback to support (impressive breakout by the way).
A bounce off the lows would be nice in order to get better entry points but we just keep knifing lower, down 240 pts. on the DOW now.
Thursday, February 28, 2008
Here We Go Again, Grab Your Helmet
Here's what I see going through my watchlist: a list of potential short candidates longer than my arm. Noticed the same imbalance last night too. As a result I started putting more money to work this afternoon on the short side.
Looks to me as if the financials are getting ready to lead us lower once again. That has been the number one market tell since August of last year. When the financials start to swoon it gets ugly quick. I haven't done too much with this idea relative to how strongly I feel about it but I did buy back some SKF (yesterday) and shorted some BAC (today). I intend to aggressively short BAC (I'm an unsatisfied customer) but I'll wait until it cracks the 50-dma to double my position.
The last market swoon we had didn't hold and in fact rebounded quite violently due to the fact that the financials (and housing stocks) were bouncing. With the financials rolling over I'm much more confident betting against the market here. Mark my word (ad nauseum), pain lies directly ahead.
Tomorrow is month end. I'm up about 7.5% in February (not quite my best levels but God-like returns nonetheless). The market itself is basically flat during that time.
Time to go hunt some bulls. I've sharpened my bear claws.
Looks to me as if the financials are getting ready to lead us lower once again. That has been the number one market tell since August of last year. When the financials start to swoon it gets ugly quick. I haven't done too much with this idea relative to how strongly I feel about it but I did buy back some SKF (yesterday) and shorted some BAC (today). I intend to aggressively short BAC (I'm an unsatisfied customer) but I'll wait until it cracks the 50-dma to double my position.
The last market swoon we had didn't hold and in fact rebounded quite violently due to the fact that the financials (and housing stocks) were bouncing. With the financials rolling over I'm much more confident betting against the market here. Mark my word (ad nauseum), pain lies directly ahead.
Tomorrow is month end. I'm up about 7.5% in February (not quite my best levels but God-like returns nonetheless). The market itself is basically flat during that time.
Time to go hunt some bulls. I've sharpened my bear claws.
More Grid Problems
HOUSTON (Reuters) - A drop in wind generation late on Tuesday, coupled with colder weather, triggered an electric emergency that caused the Texas grid operator to cut service to some large customers, the grid agency said on Wednesday.
ClickHere
Is it just me, or is this becoming more common?
ClickHere
Is it just me, or is this becoming more common?
Wednesday, February 27, 2008
Our Grid is Antiquated
AP- A relatively minor glitch in Florida’s electrical grid somehow triggered a chain reaction Tuesday that caused a nuclear plant to shut down and briefly cut power in patches from Daytona Beach through the Florida Keys.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23355118/
Americans take many things for granted. Behind the scenes it's a precarious balance. In the years ahead it will get harder to keep our lights on and our plates full of food. Go ahead and scoff at your own risk.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23355118/
Americans take many things for granted. Behind the scenes it's a precarious balance. In the years ahead it will get harder to keep our lights on and our plates full of food. Go ahead and scoff at your own risk.
Tuesday, February 26, 2008
Whew!
Glad to be out of my shorts. Caught the turn quite nicely. Market is rocketing higher and the one short I kept (FNM) is down 3%+. The longs are working nicely and NFX may finally be ready to reward my patience. Feeling good. It's better to be profitable than dogmatic.
We have a couple weeks before the profit warnings begin to roll in and the bulls are in control. Take the ball and run with it boys.
I'm 98% equity and have a lot of dry powder.
We have a couple weeks before the profit warnings begin to roll in and the bulls are in control. Take the ball and run with it boys.
I'm 98% equity and have a lot of dry powder.
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