Tuesday, June 24, 2008
Just Nibbling, For Now
The next leg up in the metals is so close I can taste it. Haven't taken any significant action thus far but I'm nibbling- adding a bit here and a touch there in the trading account. As for my longer term accounts I'm an aggressive buyer.
Just For the Record
In regards to all of the aforementioned problems that we currently face allow me to just say:
I CALLED IT.
Disclaimer: In "real life" I am not an outwardly arrogant person but for the purposes of this blog...
I CALLED IT.
Disclaimer: In "real life" I am not an outwardly arrogant person but for the purposes of this blog...
Better Late...
Here we are again: headed straight down the toilet. Makes me wonder what the Fed has up it's sleeve to bail us out this time. Tomorrow they announce their next move. They should absolutely be raising rates to fight inflation, if not tomorrow then going forward into the remainder of the year. The market seems to think that's a likely possibility but I would put the chances somewhere around 0%. If there is one thing I know, it's that the Fed could give a shit about inflation. Period. Bailing out the banks, for instance, is a much higher priority.
The Associated Press actually had a headline over the weekend that read "Everything Seemingly Spinning Out of Control". Isn't that the truth. We have natural disasters, raging inflation, two seemingly endless wars, a housing crash, a stock market that is circling the bowl and an oil crisis. That's the tip of the iceberg. Don't forget global warming. It's uncanny that at the very moment in our nation's history, and world history for that matter, that we need real forward-looking leadership we have the worst presidential leadership in my lifetime (maybe ever). To be fair it's not just Bush and Co. but the entire structure that is rotten (both parties share responsibility). Not only are we not working towards solutions to any of these problems but we are working to exacerbate them.
I am legitimately frightened for my family going forward. In the meantime I am raping and pillaging this market. Up 10%+ for the month of June after poor performances in both March and April. The second half of last year represented the best six months of my trading career and I seek to replicate it this year.
Not much has been posted here of late. Hopefully I can get back in the groove. Things are only going to get more interesting.
The Associated Press actually had a headline over the weekend that read "Everything Seemingly Spinning Out of Control". Isn't that the truth. We have natural disasters, raging inflation, two seemingly endless wars, a housing crash, a stock market that is circling the bowl and an oil crisis. That's the tip of the iceberg. Don't forget global warming. It's uncanny that at the very moment in our nation's history, and world history for that matter, that we need real forward-looking leadership we have the worst presidential leadership in my lifetime (maybe ever). To be fair it's not just Bush and Co. but the entire structure that is rotten (both parties share responsibility). Not only are we not working towards solutions to any of these problems but we are working to exacerbate them.
I am legitimately frightened for my family going forward. In the meantime I am raping and pillaging this market. Up 10%+ for the month of June after poor performances in both March and April. The second half of last year represented the best six months of my trading career and I seek to replicate it this year.
Not much has been posted here of late. Hopefully I can get back in the groove. Things are only going to get more interesting.
Saturday, June 7, 2008
Wednesday, June 4, 2008
Friday, May 9, 2008
Dow 13K, S&P 1400...
...Launching Pad or Wall of Resistance?
I could give you the case for both though I've been expecting the latter. From a technical perspective it looks like: breakout, retrace and possibly set to move higher. However from a fundamental perspective I maintain that we are more fucked as ever.
Interesting divergences developing here. There are many good trades to be had both long and short. Financials and retailers especially are starting to look weak. From the long side anything commodity related is en fuego and there are many attractive breakouts to be had.
For the time being I'm more or less market neutral (slightly long). Looking to play both sides and not stick my neck out too far. I would strongly advise caution here. Playing the commodity explosion from the long side yet increasing position sizes on some of my favorite shorts.
Just a quick note on gold. The yellow metal has drawn itself a head and shoulders top which may or may not result in lower prices. I've been nibbling. Not as much on gold itself but the miners are looking firm and silver is very attractive around these levels. I can tell you this, if gold can dig in here and remain firm I will be a buyer with both hands. The case for owning metals has never been stronger.
I could give you the case for both though I've been expecting the latter. From a technical perspective it looks like: breakout, retrace and possibly set to move higher. However from a fundamental perspective I maintain that we are more fucked as ever.
Interesting divergences developing here. There are many good trades to be had both long and short. Financials and retailers especially are starting to look weak. From the long side anything commodity related is en fuego and there are many attractive breakouts to be had.
For the time being I'm more or less market neutral (slightly long). Looking to play both sides and not stick my neck out too far. I would strongly advise caution here. Playing the commodity explosion from the long side yet increasing position sizes on some of my favorite shorts.
Just a quick note on gold. The yellow metal has drawn itself a head and shoulders top which may or may not result in lower prices. I've been nibbling. Not as much on gold itself but the miners are looking firm and silver is very attractive around these levels. I can tell you this, if gold can dig in here and remain firm I will be a buyer with both hands. The case for owning metals has never been stronger.
Thursday, May 1, 2008
Trigger Finger Getting Itchy
With the Fed out of the way I'm feeling slightly more bold. Swallowing this latest quarter point cut gave the market some indigestion yesterday afternoon. We gave back a triple digit gain. This is just the sort of action I was looking for. My upside target has been 13K on the DOW and we peaked at 13010.
The bears are not out of the woods yet. We have the employment report on Friday. I won't be looking to get real aggressive ahead of that.
The bears are not out of the woods yet. We have the employment report on Friday. I won't be looking to get real aggressive ahead of that.
Tuesday, April 29, 2008
Waiting for the Fed
Boring.
Portfolio remains market neutral with a slight long side bias seeing as few shorts have been working.
Not much to do before Wednesday's announcement. Sitting on my hands. There are a handful of breakouts in play but it's not time to get all excited, about anything.
Portfolio remains market neutral with a slight long side bias seeing as few shorts have been working.
Not much to do before Wednesday's announcement. Sitting on my hands. There are a handful of breakouts in play but it's not time to get all excited, about anything.
Wednesday, April 23, 2008
High Gas Prices = Less Disposable Income
Can anyone tell me who the hell eats at Bob Evans? Old people after Sunday services? I've often wondered how they stay in business when I never see any cars in their parking lot.As for Cracker Barrel and I-Hop, they are roadside eateries. Think summer trip. Something tells me that after dad stops and fills up the minivan at $3.50+/gallon he's not going to want to stop again.
I admit to having a special affection for Cracker Barrel. Think sour dough french toast. That being said, I bet all three of these stocks are going to trade much lower. Haven't taken any action in these names yet as I remain cautious in initiating new short sales but I will be looking for an opportunity in the near future.
Monday, April 21, 2008
Back in the Saddle
Today was a nice uneventful day. I put a lot of money to work. Bought a few breakouts and initiated some modestly-sized shorts in financials. I remain net long but I'm really pretty balanced. Despite my success when the market has recently been crushed I prefer to see a more balanced market where one can play both sides.
Bulls remain in control, for now. Outright delusion is widespread amongst market participants. Seems unlikely to last very long. At some point soon the financials will lead us lower again. Also sniffing for short side opportunities in commercial real estate as those stocks have seen big runs based on the fairy tale that everything is going to be just fine. I continue to believe otherwise.
Bulls remain in control, for now. Outright delusion is widespread amongst market participants. Seems unlikely to last very long. At some point soon the financials will lead us lower again. Also sniffing for short side opportunities in commercial real estate as those stocks have seen big runs based on the fairy tale that everything is going to be just fine. I continue to believe otherwise.
Saturday, April 19, 2008
Triumphant Return
Spent all week in the Georgia mountains hiking and breathing clean air for a change. The people there are just too nice. Now that I'm back in Florida where everyone is an asshole I feel normal again in hating everyone I meet.
I return somewhat richer than when I left. Click-here to review my call on NFX. Now the results:
I return somewhat richer than when I left. Click-here to review my call on NFX. Now the results:
That's almost 14% this week alone. Your welcome. Now you too can afford to go on vacation.
Enough bravado. Perched in my mountain hideaway I paid very little (relatively speaking) attention to the markets. Now that I'm back and feeling refreshed I'll be getting down to business. Obviously the bulls are in charge and the market has broken out to the upside. I'd not be surprised to see 13K on the DOW in short order. I'll give the bulls a head start before I begin hunting them down and slaughtering them again.
Friday, April 11, 2008
Vacation
I'll be spending the next week plotting the inevitable downfall of our economy and markets from my mountain retreat.
Tuesday, April 8, 2008
I Love Me Some Volcker
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=akNtk9A7NN8I&refer=home
``What appears to be in substance a direct transfer of mortgage and mortgage-backed securities of questionable pedigree from an investment bank to the Federal Reserve seems to test the time-honored central bank mantra in time of crisis: lend freely at high rates against good collateral; test it to the point of no return,'' he said.
Volcker said the modern financial system has ``failed the test'' of the marketplace. When asked whether he predicts a ``dollar crisis,'' he said, ``you don't have to predict it, you're in it.''
``What appears to be in substance a direct transfer of mortgage and mortgage-backed securities of questionable pedigree from an investment bank to the Federal Reserve seems to test the time-honored central bank mantra in time of crisis: lend freely at high rates against good collateral; test it to the point of no return,'' he said.
Volcker said the modern financial system has ``failed the test'' of the marketplace. When asked whether he predicts a ``dollar crisis,'' he said, ``you don't have to predict it, you're in it.''
Monday, April 7, 2008
Sunday, April 6, 2008
Welcome to the New and Improved Socialist America
I have a few things to get off my chest regarding the bailout of Bear Stearns.
The Fed chose to backstop the sale of Bear with 29 billion dollars of taxpayer money without which the transaction would never have taken place. The justification for doing so, according to Bernanke, is that had Bear been allowed to fail it would have triggered financial armageddon. There is probably some truth in that explanation but the end in this case certainly does not justify the means.
The action Bernanke and Paulson took is definitely unconstitutional and probably illegal. So you'd figure that when they appear before Congress to answer questions regarding this unprecedented transaction that perhaps our representatives might have some pointed questions. You'd figure wrong. The congressional hearings were a circle jerk. I heard more praise of the bailout then criticism. It saved the market from going down so it had to be done. Coincidentally, almost every one of the questioners have taken large campaign contributions from Wall Street.
I want to vomit. I had to turn the TV off. You mean to tell me that after having acted prudently throughout the housing bubble (20% down on a house I could afford, fixed mortgage, sold at the top) that now I have to help bailout those that acted imprudently? Are you fucking kidding me? I could have bought three or four houses, taken out ARMs with zero down and generally just speculated recklessly like many of those around me, but no, I did not. Now when the shit hits the fan I should have to bail out the risk takers with my tax dollars?
We now have, in this country, privatized profit and socialized risk.
The thing with Bear is that they fucked up and should have to face the consequences just like the individuals who speculated and got it wrong. But no, these guys award themselves billions in bonuses and now expect to be bailed out. Filing bankruptcy would have insured the return of those bonuses that were looted from the company but thanks to our Fed and Treasury there are no consequences for failure.
Did you not see the CEO of Bear on CNBS just days before they blew up? According to him everything was just fine, no cause for alarm. Three days later they are on the verge of bankruptcy? Where are the handcuffs? What am I missing? You see it's illegal for executives to make false statements to the market. Where are the cops?
Furthermore this whole scam is an exercise in obfuscation. Even though the taxpayer is on the hook for the losses we are not allowed to see just what Bear has on the books. The whole idea is to avoid taking realistic marks on the toxic waste that is everywhere.
So without objection from Congress we have now institutionalized the taxpayer bailout of any financial concern dubbed too big to fail. There will be many more of them and I suppose the Fed is going to take all of their bad paper onto it's balance sheet? We are now the United States of Subprime. The Fed keeps going at this rate and I'm going to have to turn my walk-in closet into a vault to hold all the gold I'm going to have to buy as protection against the complete debasement of our currency, our values and our society in general.
This bailout was a watershed moment. We have entered a new era in which anything goes. I could not possibly be more ashamed of my country.
The Fed chose to backstop the sale of Bear with 29 billion dollars of taxpayer money without which the transaction would never have taken place. The justification for doing so, according to Bernanke, is that had Bear been allowed to fail it would have triggered financial armageddon. There is probably some truth in that explanation but the end in this case certainly does not justify the means.
The action Bernanke and Paulson took is definitely unconstitutional and probably illegal. So you'd figure that when they appear before Congress to answer questions regarding this unprecedented transaction that perhaps our representatives might have some pointed questions. You'd figure wrong. The congressional hearings were a circle jerk. I heard more praise of the bailout then criticism. It saved the market from going down so it had to be done. Coincidentally, almost every one of the questioners have taken large campaign contributions from Wall Street.
I want to vomit. I had to turn the TV off. You mean to tell me that after having acted prudently throughout the housing bubble (20% down on a house I could afford, fixed mortgage, sold at the top) that now I have to help bailout those that acted imprudently? Are you fucking kidding me? I could have bought three or four houses, taken out ARMs with zero down and generally just speculated recklessly like many of those around me, but no, I did not. Now when the shit hits the fan I should have to bail out the risk takers with my tax dollars?
We now have, in this country, privatized profit and socialized risk.
The thing with Bear is that they fucked up and should have to face the consequences just like the individuals who speculated and got it wrong. But no, these guys award themselves billions in bonuses and now expect to be bailed out. Filing bankruptcy would have insured the return of those bonuses that were looted from the company but thanks to our Fed and Treasury there are no consequences for failure.
Did you not see the CEO of Bear on CNBS just days before they blew up? According to him everything was just fine, no cause for alarm. Three days later they are on the verge of bankruptcy? Where are the handcuffs? What am I missing? You see it's illegal for executives to make false statements to the market. Where are the cops?
Furthermore this whole scam is an exercise in obfuscation. Even though the taxpayer is on the hook for the losses we are not allowed to see just what Bear has on the books. The whole idea is to avoid taking realistic marks on the toxic waste that is everywhere.
So without objection from Congress we have now institutionalized the taxpayer bailout of any financial concern dubbed too big to fail. There will be many more of them and I suppose the Fed is going to take all of their bad paper onto it's balance sheet? We are now the United States of Subprime. The Fed keeps going at this rate and I'm going to have to turn my walk-in closet into a vault to hold all the gold I'm going to have to buy as protection against the complete debasement of our currency, our values and our society in general.
This bailout was a watershed moment. We have entered a new era in which anything goes. I could not possibly be more ashamed of my country.
Wednesday, April 2, 2008
Drunken Bulls Run Amok
You know, I expected another rally but 391 DOW pts? Really? The S&P and Nasdaq were both up better than 3.5%. Jeez. Shit's insane.
So it appears to be a double bottom on the indexes. The bullish contingent is all lathered up and breathing heavy. It's the bottom! I say maybe for now. The DOW needs at least another hundred points for confirmation of a true double bottom.
We should expect more of these violent whipsaws going forward. No question, bear markets are difficult to trade. I feel confident though that we have not seen the lows for the year.
As for my personal trading, it's fair to say it's been bumpy this year. Yesterday I was under attack again but worked early in the day to limit exposure to the short side. I consider yesterday a success insofar as it could have been much worse than it was. I just need to stay in the game. I banked a lot of coin off of the declines we've seen thus far and I can envision a much greater opportunity not too far down the road.
So it appears to be a double bottom on the indexes. The bullish contingent is all lathered up and breathing heavy. It's the bottom! I say maybe for now. The DOW needs at least another hundred points for confirmation of a true double bottom.
We should expect more of these violent whipsaws going forward. No question, bear markets are difficult to trade. I feel confident though that we have not seen the lows for the year.
As for my personal trading, it's fair to say it's been bumpy this year. Yesterday I was under attack again but worked early in the day to limit exposure to the short side. I consider yesterday a success insofar as it could have been much worse than it was. I just need to stay in the game. I banked a lot of coin off of the declines we've seen thus far and I can envision a much greater opportunity not too far down the road.
Monday, March 31, 2008
Here We Go Again
Today is the last day of March. I'll be glad when it ends. I spent the greater part of March getting whipsawed via insane volatility. As usual it was not my powers of prediction that failed me so much as my trading ability or lack thereof. My powers of prediction are just fine thank you and as a result I will enter April with confidence.
Looking at the futures early this morning it looks like a flat open which is nice considering the headlines over the weekend. The Fed apparently will be granted new powers to regulate, pending congressional approval. Makes me want to vomit. The Fed needs to be stripped of it's power not given more. To me this news smells like a regulation shell game. There is absolutely no genuine intention by this administration to regulate anything especially financial concerns.
The whole idea to give the Fed more power reeks of an Orwellian air and scares the shit out of me. We are well on our way to becoming the Socialist States of America.
As for the market, I still think we consolidate some more before ultimately heading lower. Commodities are correcting here and I intend to wait before viewing it as a buying opportunity. Once I see some stability I will be a buyer of gold and agricultural commodities. Somewhat agnostic on oil though- the supply/demand picture is favorable but I expect demand destruction as a result of the recession.
Keeping an eye on technology as I think the sector will offer some nice shorting opportunities in the near future. The idea that investors can hide out in technology names as we enter a recession is pure fallacy.
Looking at the futures early this morning it looks like a flat open which is nice considering the headlines over the weekend. The Fed apparently will be granted new powers to regulate, pending congressional approval. Makes me want to vomit. The Fed needs to be stripped of it's power not given more. To me this news smells like a regulation shell game. There is absolutely no genuine intention by this administration to regulate anything especially financial concerns.
The whole idea to give the Fed more power reeks of an Orwellian air and scares the shit out of me. We are well on our way to becoming the Socialist States of America.
As for the market, I still think we consolidate some more before ultimately heading lower. Commodities are correcting here and I intend to wait before viewing it as a buying opportunity. Once I see some stability I will be a buyer of gold and agricultural commodities. Somewhat agnostic on oil though- the supply/demand picture is favorable but I expect demand destruction as a result of the recession.
Keeping an eye on technology as I think the sector will offer some nice shorting opportunities in the near future. The idea that investors can hide out in technology names as we enter a recession is pure fallacy.
Friday, March 28, 2008
Head and Shoulders, Part Two
This is 15, I think, head and shoulders patterns posted this week. They are in various stages of completion. EWC in particular is very incomplete. The idea is to test the efficacy of the pattern itself so I provided a number of different examples in a real time setting. (One my wonder why there are so many head and shoulders patterns at this moment in time...) The pattern itself should not be traded before completion and you should expect several of these examples to fail altogether (going higher not lower). I view these patterns as major trend changes. Price target is 20% below the neckline.
I will be trading a number of these names and we'll check back in with them down the road. These charts posted are all weekly graphs and will take some time to complete.
Thursday, March 27, 2008
What's Up Now, HUH!?
Yesterday afternoon I went through a list of probably 25 potential trades. I added to a couple existing short positions but only intiated one new position. I shorted HURN @ $58.70. Missed the open this morning but as soon as I walked in the door I covered @ $40.63. That's 30% overnight. What a gift.
Wednesday, March 26, 2008
Hump Day
Seems like the more we rally the more the volume drys up. Hmm. It's a open secret that portfolio managers window dress and paint the tape at month-end and especially quarter-end. Can the buyers sustain the averages for a few more days?
The default position still works despite bumps in the road. Long precious metals, short financials and consumer services. Own metals as long as Bernanke is around. Period. That bearded skank bitch-whore is making this shit up as he goes. He's Greenspan 2.0. As I've said repeatedly YOU MUST have an insurance-sized position in precious metals at all times. It's a hedge. Just own it, just in case.
Financials are starting to look ripe again although it's somewhat demoralizing that we no longer allow institutions to fail. You have to clear the dead wood, not prop it up. Really, shorting anything here is difficult simply due to all the bailouts. As a short you go to sleep (or try) every night knowing tomorrow could bring the next bailout. There will be big money made on the short side but it's tricky as hell.
The default position still works despite bumps in the road. Long precious metals, short financials and consumer services. Own metals as long as Bernanke is around. Period. That bearded skank bitch-whore is making this shit up as he goes. He's Greenspan 2.0. As I've said repeatedly YOU MUST have an insurance-sized position in precious metals at all times. It's a hedge. Just own it, just in case.
Financials are starting to look ripe again although it's somewhat demoralizing that we no longer allow institutions to fail. You have to clear the dead wood, not prop it up. Really, shorting anything here is difficult simply due to all the bailouts. As a short you go to sleep (or try) every night knowing tomorrow could bring the next bailout. There will be big money made on the short side but it's tricky as hell.
Tuesday, March 25, 2008
Waiting
Market went nuts to the upside again yesterday. I limited my short exposure early and saved myself a lot of pain. Then I took a nap and went kayaking.
For now, market participants are back to believing in Goldilocks and the Easter bunny. As to how long such fantasies prevail, it's hard to say. On one hand we have retail and housing stocks breaking out. Financials have stopped falling, for now. On the other hand I see a lot of juicy short set-ups. Lots of head and shoulders tops. The bear is not over.
I still think our problems are too big to bail. Is the Fed is going to monetize trillions of dollars of bad paper?
For now, market participants are back to believing in Goldilocks and the Easter bunny. As to how long such fantasies prevail, it's hard to say. On one hand we have retail and housing stocks breaking out. Financials have stopped falling, for now. On the other hand I see a lot of juicy short set-ups. Lots of head and shoulders tops. The bear is not over.
I still think our problems are too big to bail. Is the Fed is going to monetize trillions of dollars of bad paper?
Monday, March 24, 2008
Rally Sustainable It Seems
Sifting through the entirety of my watchlist this weekend gives me the impression that this current rally has legs. It would have served me better to have come to that conclusion sooner as my bearish bias worked against me last week. Such is life. Retail in particular looks set for a potentially substantive bounce. My top market tell, the financials, have also stopped falling.
Sometimes it's hard to admit your wrong. It's taken me longer than it should to admit I'm now swimming against the tide. Having now acknowledged my poor positioning I will act decisively to preserve capital. Live to fight another day. It's important to keep in mind that my best trades are ahead of me and the number one priority is to stay in the game.
Having said all that I'm not really looking to get long. More than likely I will scale back and wait. This bear market is not going to end anytime soon.
Sometimes it's hard to admit your wrong. It's taken me longer than it should to admit I'm now swimming against the tide. Having now acknowledged my poor positioning I will act decisively to preserve capital. Live to fight another day. It's important to keep in mind that my best trades are ahead of me and the number one priority is to stay in the game.
Having said all that I'm not really looking to get long. More than likely I will scale back and wait. This bear market is not going to end anytime soon.
Wednesday, March 19, 2008
Amen Jim
Here is an absolute must see. Jim Rogers on CNBC World. Please enjoy.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/23588079
http://www.cnbc.com/id/23588079
De-Balled
Coming into yesterday's Fed day celebration net short was a very effective strategy for losing copious amounts of capital. I sensed as much ahead of time but decided to honor my stops rather than immediately running for cover. To be honest I don't think I've ever been so unemotional while losing such large sums of money. There's my silver lining insofar as I consider it to be an important signpost in my evolution as a trader.
Only a few of my stops have been hit. I expected a bounce. Maybe not 420 pts in one day but I'm not surprised that I have to play some defense. That's fine. Ultimately the longer the bulls remain in denial about the magnitude of the problems we face the better entry points I'll get. I have plenty of dry powder to put to work at higher prices if need be.
Only a few of my stops have been hit. I expected a bounce. Maybe not 420 pts in one day but I'm not surprised that I have to play some defense. That's fine. Ultimately the longer the bulls remain in denial about the magnitude of the problems we face the better entry points I'll get. I have plenty of dry powder to put to work at higher prices if need be.
Tuesday, March 18, 2008
Party Time
Futures up strong this morning. Fed announces latest cut at 2:15PM/EST. Time for a party. Our financial companies are technically insolvent but Ben's gonna cut so fuck it let's buy. All the pundits are calling a bottom already. Based on a test of the lows this week I can see the case for that I'm just not buying it.
Coming in ahead of the Fed net short my neck is placed firmly on the chopping block. Trading involves risk. I wish they'd just cut the FFT to zero so we could move beyond this fallacy that the Fed is going to save us.
Coming in ahead of the Fed net short my neck is placed firmly on the chopping block. Trading involves risk. I wish they'd just cut the FFT to zero so we could move beyond this fallacy that the Fed is going to save us.
Monday, March 17, 2008
Sell the Rally
So we opened down hard and traded as low as 11,750. Then snapped back to 12K (green on the day). That's 250 pts in an hour and a half. Now we're slowly working our way back down.
I used the big bounce to get even more net short. Now positioned perhaps the most aggressively net short I've ever been. We may bounce around here some more, in fact I'd expect it which is why I still have some dry powder, but I don't think there is anyway these lows hold.
I used the big bounce to get even more net short. Now positioned perhaps the most aggressively net short I've ever been. We may bounce around here some more, in fact I'd expect it which is why I still have some dry powder, but I don't think there is anyway these lows hold.
Just A Couple Thoughts
1. Slashing rates will do nothing to save us. Bernanke has been cutting for months- how has that worked so far? The only thing he has succeeded in doing is destroying the dollar.
2. If BSC is only worth $2 I can think of a whole list of financials that are virtually worthless. Expect all financial companies to be re-priced. Many firms will eventually go to zero.
3. If BSC CEO comes on CNBC as he did the middle of last week and says everything is fine with his firm and they have not been significantly impacted and two days later they are broke then the guy is a fucking liar! Period. You don't go from just fine to broke in two days. Where are the handcuffs? Where are the regulators? WTF?!
2. If BSC is only worth $2 I can think of a whole list of financials that are virtually worthless. Expect all financial companies to be re-priced. Many firms will eventually go to zero.
3. If BSC CEO comes on CNBC as he did the middle of last week and says everything is fine with his firm and they have not been significantly impacted and two days later they are broke then the guy is a fucking liar! Period. You don't go from just fine to broke in two days. Where are the handcuffs? Where are the regulators? WTF?!
The Gates of Hell Have Opened
That's right folks. Allow me to again reiterate that we are completely fucking doomed. News over the weekend is that BSC is getting taken under for two bucks a share. That's right- $2. WOW. Also the Fed cut the discount rate on Sunday night despite their meeting scheduled for Tuesday. Can you say panic? You can't wait two days?!
So we're fucked. No surprise here.
This month has been extremely volatile. Last week I took some hits. Tuesday when the Fed orchestrated it's bailout and Thursday when I shorted into the hole were both painful days. However, I stuck to my convictions and come in this morning aggressively net short. My only wish is that I was more aggressively net short. I see opportunities everywhere.
Expect this holiday shortened week to be nothing short of absolutely insane. Fed meets on Tuesday, we have several economic numbers slated for release, and option expiration in addition to the elevated possibility of an outright crash here and now. Fasten your seatbelts- the ride is about to get bumpy.
So we're fucked. No surprise here.
This month has been extremely volatile. Last week I took some hits. Tuesday when the Fed orchestrated it's bailout and Thursday when I shorted into the hole were both painful days. However, I stuck to my convictions and come in this morning aggressively net short. My only wish is that I was more aggressively net short. I see opportunities everywhere.
Expect this holiday shortened week to be nothing short of absolutely insane. Fed meets on Tuesday, we have several economic numbers slated for release, and option expiration in addition to the elevated possibility of an outright crash here and now. Fasten your seatbelts- the ride is about to get bumpy.
Thursday, March 13, 2008
We Remain Doomed
Could this rally be over already? Seems very possible to me. Yesterday I dipped my toe back in on the short side and today I plan to get more aggressive.
The Fed is running out of ammunition. I'm wary of getting too excited ahead of the next rate cut (Tuesday) but they are starting to lose their grip. Every action they have taken seems to be less and less convincing to market participants. At some point the Fed loses all credibility. We are nearing that point.
I have more short ideas than I care to count with only a small handful of potential longs. At the end of the day I have to trade what the market gives me.
Last night after viewing just a portion of my watchlist I decided it was time to get short again. This morning the futures are down hard making things a bit tricky. I'll play it by ear but my intention is to put money to work.
The Fed is running out of ammunition. I'm wary of getting too excited ahead of the next rate cut (Tuesday) but they are starting to lose their grip. Every action they have taken seems to be less and less convincing to market participants. At some point the Fed loses all credibility. We are nearing that point.
I have more short ideas than I care to count with only a small handful of potential longs. At the end of the day I have to trade what the market gives me.
Last night after viewing just a portion of my watchlist I decided it was time to get short again. This morning the futures are down hard making things a bit tricky. I'll play it by ear but my intention is to put money to work.
Wednesday, March 12, 2008
Tuesday, March 11, 2008
Market (So Far) Failing to Hold 12K
I'm just sayin'...
UPDATE: 12K held decisively. The tired old bulls are in control again. I'm back to the waiting game.
UPDATE: 12K held decisively. The tired old bulls are in control again. I'm back to the waiting game.
Can We Please Just Go Higher?
Might as well take out 12K. I've already taken the hit so I'd like to see a sustained rally thereby allowing me to short the market into oblivion from higher levels.
My exposure is now minimal. I intend to sit on my ass for the rest of the day. I think I'll give my DVR a work-out.
I'm far from sold on the idea that we will trade higher but it would be nice. Who knows?
My exposure is now minimal. I intend to sit on my ass for the rest of the day. I think I'll give my DVR a work-out.
I'm far from sold on the idea that we will trade higher but it would be nice. Who knows?
Good Morning Vietnam! You've Just Been Bombed
Up until about 4:30 last night working, I awoke later than usual at about 9 and what a surprise. The Fed is out to knee-cap me again. Those fuckers. Down 2.5% as I write.
What do you know? Right to 12K on the DOW. That's my line in the sand. I've taken down a few shorts to control risk and am tightly monitoring my stops on all positions. Most have yet to be hit and we're going to have to hold 12K to send me scurrying for cover. Until that happens I will remain unimpressed.
Matter of fact this is probably a gift to the bears. Especially those looking for better entry points. I don't plan to do much today besides play defense. I'm not looking to immediately short into this since it doesn't fit my risk profile. I'll protect my equity first and foremost then re-evaluate when the dust clears a bit.
What do you know? Right to 12K on the DOW. That's my line in the sand. I've taken down a few shorts to control risk and am tightly monitoring my stops on all positions. Most have yet to be hit and we're going to have to hold 12K to send me scurrying for cover. Until that happens I will remain unimpressed.
Matter of fact this is probably a gift to the bears. Especially those looking for better entry points. I don't plan to do much today besides play defense. I'm not looking to immediately short into this since it doesn't fit my risk profile. I'll protect my equity first and foremost then re-evaluate when the dust clears a bit.
Back in the Saddle
On the first trading day of March I said it wasn't too late to sell. That was 500 DOW points ago. Whew! That was a quick 500. Now the consensus seems to be that we are oversold and due for a bounce. Fuck the consensus. Though, I suppose I could see 12K on the DOW one more time. Test those levels from below and see some names rally back to broken trendlines.
More than likely we continue to bleed. Everything is broken. Even the last of the bull markets are breaking. I see almost nowhere to hide. We are in a bear.
You can be certain violent rallies will surprise us out of nowhere but the trend is down. Rallies are selling opportunities.
So there you go. Both sides of the coin. The idea is not to hedge myself (clearly I remain a bear) but to remain flexible to what the market offers. Always remain flexible and never proclaim yourself smarter than the markets.
As for my personal trading, it's been difficult insofar as I withdrew from the markets at the end of last week and as a result ended up poorly positioned to take advantage of the recent swoon. I predicted as much Wednesday afternoon. Murphy's Law.
This morning I came back hungry. Shorted a handful of names and bulked up my exposure (which remains smallish). That worked and I was back to outperforming today. My inclination is to get really aggressive to make up for lost time but I don't make those mistakes anymore. I'm easing back in and letting go of the many attractive opportunities I missed.
Missing opportunities is difficult but new ones will arise. You just have to keep telling yourself that. I finally reached the level where I have the necessary skills to make money consistently over time. That alone is worth more than anything else. Therefore I know for certain new opportunities will present themselves. They were there this morning even after the two important days of action I missed last week.
More than likely we continue to bleed. Everything is broken. Even the last of the bull markets are breaking. I see almost nowhere to hide. We are in a bear.
You can be certain violent rallies will surprise us out of nowhere but the trend is down. Rallies are selling opportunities.
So there you go. Both sides of the coin. The idea is not to hedge myself (clearly I remain a bear) but to remain flexible to what the market offers. Always remain flexible and never proclaim yourself smarter than the markets.
As for my personal trading, it's been difficult insofar as I withdrew from the markets at the end of last week and as a result ended up poorly positioned to take advantage of the recent swoon. I predicted as much Wednesday afternoon. Murphy's Law.
This morning I came back hungry. Shorted a handful of names and bulked up my exposure (which remains smallish). That worked and I was back to outperforming today. My inclination is to get really aggressive to make up for lost time but I don't make those mistakes anymore. I'm easing back in and letting go of the many attractive opportunities I missed.
Missing opportunities is difficult but new ones will arise. You just have to keep telling yourself that. I finally reached the level where I have the necessary skills to make money consistently over time. That alone is worth more than anything else. Therefore I know for certain new opportunities will present themselves. They were there this morning even after the two important days of action I missed last week.
Wednesday, March 5, 2008
Hiatus
I want to throw the kitchen sink at this market and short it to zero. Normally I would be aggressively re-positioning here but I can't focus. There are too many distractions in my personal life and I need some time to get things straightened out.
I will not be initiating any new positions for now. In the meantime I have a small handful of positions (mostly shorts) that I'm willing to let run for now. I'm up nicely on the day. Once I get my shit together (hopefully soon) I'll be back with a vengeance. Mark my word.
I will not be initiating any new positions for now. In the meantime I have a small handful of positions (mostly shorts) that I'm willing to let run for now. I'm up nicely on the day. Once I get my shit together (hopefully soon) I'll be back with a vengeance. Mark my word.
March Blues
Yesterday was interesting. At one point we were down something like 220 pts on the DOW. Initially I was up 2% or so until commodity names rolled over. As the market knifed lower throughout the morning though I found myself up just 1%. Frankly I found it frustrating that I wasn't up more amidst substantial weakness. Just sort of had an uneasy feeling about the day.
Sure enough around 3 o'clock CNBS pulled another bailout rumour out of it's ass and we quickly rallied 150+ pts. Such is life as a bear. My gains were erased. Minor losses ensued. My uneasy feeling combined with the reversal combined with support around 12K inspired me to sacrifice positions. Sometimes you just have to throw shit into the fire and clear your head. That's exactly what I did.
Truth is, I fucked up pretty good this last week or so. Presented with great entry points last week I twiddled my thumbs instead acting with conviction and putting capital to work. Sure I caught a couple of nice moves but missed many great opportunities. I've just generally felt uninspired and been distracted by my personal life.
Maybe I'm too comfortable. Maybe I'm distracted. Maybe I'm just full of excuses. Regardless, I've taken a step back and refuse to chase the trades I've missed. It's going to take a solid bounce for me to put money to work. Perhaps I'll be that lucky but my hunch is that I've missed a great opportunity.
As for today, I hardly have enough skin in the game to really give a shit. Hoping the market has found support around 12k for now. More than likely I'll spend my afternoon laying on the beach. Tough break, I know.
Sure enough around 3 o'clock CNBS pulled another bailout rumour out of it's ass and we quickly rallied 150+ pts. Such is life as a bear. My gains were erased. Minor losses ensued. My uneasy feeling combined with the reversal combined with support around 12K inspired me to sacrifice positions. Sometimes you just have to throw shit into the fire and clear your head. That's exactly what I did.
Truth is, I fucked up pretty good this last week or so. Presented with great entry points last week I twiddled my thumbs instead acting with conviction and putting capital to work. Sure I caught a couple of nice moves but missed many great opportunities. I've just generally felt uninspired and been distracted by my personal life.
Maybe I'm too comfortable. Maybe I'm distracted. Maybe I'm just full of excuses. Regardless, I've taken a step back and refuse to chase the trades I've missed. It's going to take a solid bounce for me to put money to work. Perhaps I'll be that lucky but my hunch is that I've missed a great opportunity.
As for today, I hardly have enough skin in the game to really give a shit. Hoping the market has found support around 12k for now. More than likely I'll spend my afternoon laying on the beach. Tough break, I know.
Monday, March 3, 2008
Friday, February 29, 2008
Log It
Bulls got raped today. DOW down 2.5%. I did some raping, up 2%. Good not great . February saw the market down 3% or so. I logged a 9%+ gain.
Enjoy your weekend. I will be enjoying mine with rich man's whiskey.
Enjoy your weekend. I will be enjoying mine with rich man's whiskey.
Tough Day to be a Bull, Good Day to be a Bullfucker
The market is getting hammered this morning and I must say that my performance is less than stellar. Not because I'm losing money but because I'm not making more than I am.
I feel confident in saying that the market will not go to zero today, nor will the bear market end anytime soon. As a result I'm trying not to get too excited and start selling into the hole.
Take a deep breath.
I followed my plan and bulked up my BAC short, sold my MUR (gave back a point and kept the other nine that I made in the last three weeks), trimmed some AUY (to bank profits)...have a chunky short position in GM already in place so I'm comfortable if not happy with my exposure. Oh and I have copious amounts of dry powder. Trimmed my chunky NFX position yesterday and will look to buy on a pullback to support (impressive breakout by the way).
A bounce off the lows would be nice in order to get better entry points but we just keep knifing lower, down 240 pts. on the DOW now.
I feel confident in saying that the market will not go to zero today, nor will the bear market end anytime soon. As a result I'm trying not to get too excited and start selling into the hole.
Take a deep breath.
I followed my plan and bulked up my BAC short, sold my MUR (gave back a point and kept the other nine that I made in the last three weeks), trimmed some AUY (to bank profits)...have a chunky short position in GM already in place so I'm comfortable if not happy with my exposure. Oh and I have copious amounts of dry powder. Trimmed my chunky NFX position yesterday and will look to buy on a pullback to support (impressive breakout by the way).
A bounce off the lows would be nice in order to get better entry points but we just keep knifing lower, down 240 pts. on the DOW now.
Thursday, February 28, 2008
Here We Go Again, Grab Your Helmet
Here's what I see going through my watchlist: a list of potential short candidates longer than my arm. Noticed the same imbalance last night too. As a result I started putting more money to work this afternoon on the short side.
Looks to me as if the financials are getting ready to lead us lower once again. That has been the number one market tell since August of last year. When the financials start to swoon it gets ugly quick. I haven't done too much with this idea relative to how strongly I feel about it but I did buy back some SKF (yesterday) and shorted some BAC (today). I intend to aggressively short BAC (I'm an unsatisfied customer) but I'll wait until it cracks the 50-dma to double my position.
The last market swoon we had didn't hold and in fact rebounded quite violently due to the fact that the financials (and housing stocks) were bouncing. With the financials rolling over I'm much more confident betting against the market here. Mark my word (ad nauseum), pain lies directly ahead.
Tomorrow is month end. I'm up about 7.5% in February (not quite my best levels but God-like returns nonetheless). The market itself is basically flat during that time.
Time to go hunt some bulls. I've sharpened my bear claws.
Looks to me as if the financials are getting ready to lead us lower once again. That has been the number one market tell since August of last year. When the financials start to swoon it gets ugly quick. I haven't done too much with this idea relative to how strongly I feel about it but I did buy back some SKF (yesterday) and shorted some BAC (today). I intend to aggressively short BAC (I'm an unsatisfied customer) but I'll wait until it cracks the 50-dma to double my position.
The last market swoon we had didn't hold and in fact rebounded quite violently due to the fact that the financials (and housing stocks) were bouncing. With the financials rolling over I'm much more confident betting against the market here. Mark my word (ad nauseum), pain lies directly ahead.
Tomorrow is month end. I'm up about 7.5% in February (not quite my best levels but God-like returns nonetheless). The market itself is basically flat during that time.
Time to go hunt some bulls. I've sharpened my bear claws.
More Grid Problems
HOUSTON (Reuters) - A drop in wind generation late on Tuesday, coupled with colder weather, triggered an electric emergency that caused the Texas grid operator to cut service to some large customers, the grid agency said on Wednesday.
ClickHere
Is it just me, or is this becoming more common?
ClickHere
Is it just me, or is this becoming more common?
Wednesday, February 27, 2008
Our Grid is Antiquated
AP- A relatively minor glitch in Florida’s electrical grid somehow triggered a chain reaction Tuesday that caused a nuclear plant to shut down and briefly cut power in patches from Daytona Beach through the Florida Keys.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23355118/
Americans take many things for granted. Behind the scenes it's a precarious balance. In the years ahead it will get harder to keep our lights on and our plates full of food. Go ahead and scoff at your own risk.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23355118/
Americans take many things for granted. Behind the scenes it's a precarious balance. In the years ahead it will get harder to keep our lights on and our plates full of food. Go ahead and scoff at your own risk.
Tuesday, February 26, 2008
Whew!
Glad to be out of my shorts. Caught the turn quite nicely. Market is rocketing higher and the one short I kept (FNM) is down 3%+. The longs are working nicely and NFX may finally be ready to reward my patience. Feeling good. It's better to be profitable than dogmatic.
We have a couple weeks before the profit warnings begin to roll in and the bulls are in control. Take the ball and run with it boys.
I'm 98% equity and have a lot of dry powder.
We have a couple weeks before the profit warnings begin to roll in and the bulls are in control. Take the ball and run with it boys.
I'm 98% equity and have a lot of dry powder.
Long As Hell
This is probably the most long-side exposure I've had since August of last year. You too can believe in fairy tales. It's nice to not have to worry about some crazy 100 pt. intra-day spike taking a chunk out of my ass.
Hopefully the market can continue breaking the shorts although it's not a foregone conclusion as the major averages have yet to convincingly break out- but they are very close. Better entry points await. While awaiting those better entry points (from which to sell aggressively) I'll regroup from the long side and play some potential breakouts. Must say I'm very excited about my longs. Here is a taste of a few of my favorite longs.
Monday, February 25, 2008
Goldilocks Lives
Another day another big intra-day spike in the market. Today's bailout was of the monolines resulting in the DOW closing another 189 pts higher on top of Friday's anticipatory ramp-job. Rating agencies have reaffirmed the monolines fraudulent triple-A ratings on top of a large cash infusion into the black hole that is Ambac. More belief in fairy tales and happy endings by market participants.
Tell me this, how overwhelming is the exposure to toxic waste of these financial concerns (Citigroup, Wachovia, etc.) that they would be willing to throw a couple billion dollars at Ambac? It must be pretty scary.
This bailout is just another Wall Street shell game. It's all a matter of shifting some billions around in order to hide the losses. Problem is the losses remain and further obfuscation doesn't change that fact. You can get away with all this fraud because there is no regulation whatsoever. Actually, I'd go so far as to say that the regulators (and the Fed) are complicit in the fraud. They've certainly enabled it to go on and on.
So here we are with the indices right back where they started the month. I'm up 5%-ish. I've covered most of my shorts to preserve capital. Having done so may prove premature and I'm anxiously anticipating the opportunity to start selling again. Fact is I trade to put food on the table not to prove how right I am. Sometimes you have to err on the side of caution. Should the market continue to trade based on fairy tales I'll pack it in and go kayaking.
Tell me this, how overwhelming is the exposure to toxic waste of these financial concerns (Citigroup, Wachovia, etc.) that they would be willing to throw a couple billion dollars at Ambac? It must be pretty scary.
This bailout is just another Wall Street shell game. It's all a matter of shifting some billions around in order to hide the losses. Problem is the losses remain and further obfuscation doesn't change that fact. You can get away with all this fraud because there is no regulation whatsoever. Actually, I'd go so far as to say that the regulators (and the Fed) are complicit in the fraud. They've certainly enabled it to go on and on.
So here we are with the indices right back where they started the month. I'm up 5%-ish. I've covered most of my shorts to preserve capital. Having done so may prove premature and I'm anxiously anticipating the opportunity to start selling again. Fact is I trade to put food on the table not to prove how right I am. Sometimes you have to err on the side of caution. Should the market continue to trade based on fairy tales I'll pack it in and go kayaking.
Monday Monday
Perhaps I was too hasty in calling out Gasparino on Friday. He's generally likable and (relative to the shallow talent pool on CNBS) competent enough. I just don't much appreciate getting knee-capped on a Friday afternoon. Fact is, some men feel the need to play the game and get in line. To do what they are told. Just so happens I'm not one of them. Been there, done that and it didn't take me long to figure out it wasn't for me.
Anyway, the market rallied because it was due to rally when it did. I should have taken profits. I knew that and failed to act. If anyone, I should be frustrated with myself. In totality, last week was profitable and this morning is so far so good. It's been a good month and I will react quickly to protect profits.
Today represents an epic struggle between bulls and bears. From a technical perspective, whoever takes control this week should be able to dominate the action for awhile. This is the bulls' big chance.
Should the bulls gain the upper hand my plan is to avoid getting pummelled. Preserve my hard earned profits and live to fight another day. Better entry points will await.
Anyway, the market rallied because it was due to rally when it did. I should have taken profits. I knew that and failed to act. If anyone, I should be frustrated with myself. In totality, last week was profitable and this morning is so far so good. It's been a good month and I will react quickly to protect profits.
Today represents an epic struggle between bulls and bears. From a technical perspective, whoever takes control this week should be able to dominate the action for awhile. This is the bulls' big chance.
Should the bulls gain the upper hand my plan is to avoid getting pummelled. Preserve my hard earned profits and live to fight another day. Better entry points will await.
Friday, February 22, 2008
Pawn?
You decide. Here is the scenario...
We find ourselves in a wedge with the market consolidating it's previous losses. As the week unfolds the market becomes increasingly weak. Friday now and we are down another 100 pts on the DOW- threatening to confirm a break of the wedge to the downside, thereby confirming the downtrend. With the market resting on it's lows at 3:20 in the afternoon market participants are closing up shop and calling it a day (it's Friday after all)...BUT WAIT...Gasparino here comes on CNBS and SPECULATES that there COULD MAYBE be a bailout of mortgage insurer Ambac this upcoming weekend. Nevermind the fact that for a couple of weeks now they've been going to bail this one out to no avail. But...the market rallies 250 pts(!) in the week's final half hour of trading.
Hmmm...make up your own mind but to me this smells very much like outright market manipulation. Regardless, I'm not pleased as my very green day turned slightly red.
When you're a bear the whole world is against you and you have to be prepared for these endless stick saves. Once again the bulls snatched victory from the jaws of defeat. The reality is that we are going lower. If not right now, soon enough. Maybe we bottom here so that everyone can get complacent again. If so I'll get out of the way... but at some point this game is going to end in tears and I'll be there selling everything that moves until the market is driven into the abyss.
It's not that I'm rooting against our nation's best interest. The fact is the trash needs to be taken out. The whole house stinks. Until we take out the trash, all of it...I will remain a bear.
Tuesday, February 19, 2008
Thursday, February 14, 2008
Lying In Wait
I've spent the last week or so swimming against the tide by remaining net short into a huge pump. Last time we got one of these big upward surges I panicked into it covering a number of shorts only to have my viewpoint validated shortly thereafter. This time I've stuck to my bearish convictions. I did however put on some longs last Friday which served as a hedge against my losing short positions and helped me to weather the storm.
My uncle point on the DOW is around 12,750 and I just don't see us getting there. At the moment it's still possible the banks are bottoming but I don't subscribe to that theory. More than likely the banks are setting up to lead us lower once again.
This morning I initiated more short sales. Trying to remain conservative but I feel like that "all in on the short side" moment is close. Hopefully the day's trend (down) continues since it feels nice to be back on the winning side.
My uncle point on the DOW is around 12,750 and I just don't see us getting there. At the moment it's still possible the banks are bottoming but I don't subscribe to that theory. More than likely the banks are setting up to lead us lower once again.
This morning I initiated more short sales. Trying to remain conservative but I feel like that "all in on the short side" moment is close. Hopefully the day's trend (down) continues since it feels nice to be back on the winning side.
Tuesday, February 12, 2008
All Our Problems Are Solved
Not really but that remains the argument of the bullish contingent. Nice rally so far this week- up almost 2% on the DOW. GM, a name I remain stubbornly short, announces the biggest loss ever by an automotive company and rallies hard. Such is the current mindset. GM is going to buyout something like 70,000 more workers. I can only deduce that when GM stops making vehicles it'll be a great stock!
We also have a foreclosure freeze by six major banks in the news. Another attempt to delay the inevitable. The difference between the dot com bubble and the housing bubble is the debt. After the Nasdaq bubble popped we didn't have consumers tied to debt they couldn't service as is now the case.
This is all setting up nicely for those of a bearish mindset. Better entry points await.
As for my trading: I remain ever-so-slightly net short after having added a number of longs on Friday. Good thing I did too as having some longs has made this week bearable. Although I'm getting a pretty good hammering right now. Haven't done much yet this morning though as my stops have yet to be hit. In the meantime I remain excited about some my longs.
We also have a foreclosure freeze by six major banks in the news. Another attempt to delay the inevitable. The difference between the dot com bubble and the housing bubble is the debt. After the Nasdaq bubble popped we didn't have consumers tied to debt they couldn't service as is now the case.
This is all setting up nicely for those of a bearish mindset. Better entry points await.
As for my trading: I remain ever-so-slightly net short after having added a number of longs on Friday. Good thing I did too as having some longs has made this week bearable. Although I'm getting a pretty good hammering right now. Haven't done much yet this morning though as my stops have yet to be hit. In the meantime I remain excited about some my longs.
Friday, February 8, 2008
Riddle Me This
At what point does the bond market say enough is enough and impose some discipline on the Fed?Yesterday was strange insofar as yields shot higher, the dollar shot higher and gold was still strong. Any one day could be noise but we'd better keep an eye on this.
TGIF
Must admit that I see more potential longs than I have in some time. Banks appear as if they are trying to put in a short term bottom. Have a hard time believing that's gonna happen but...I'll trade the tape I'm given.
Coming into this week I intended to position myself market neutral (as opposed to net short up to my eyeballs) but I have yet to add any substantial longs. Maybe today is the day.
I remain conservatively positioned with the intent of escaping this week with some profits intact. Yesterday sucked but hopefully today will be better -thereby increasing my weekend revelry. After all that's what it's all about.
Coming into this week I intended to position myself market neutral (as opposed to net short up to my eyeballs) but I have yet to add any substantial longs. Maybe today is the day.
I remain conservatively positioned with the intent of escaping this week with some profits intact. Yesterday sucked but hopefully today will be better -thereby increasing my weekend revelry. After all that's what it's all about.
Thursday, February 7, 2008
What A Joke We've Become
I just have to get this off my chest real quick.
Do you know why we are not trading at 10K on the DOW? FRAUD. Period.
Losses are intentionally being hidden from the marketplace. Every effort to clean up this mess has been an exercise in further obfuscation.
Where are the regulators? Where are the indictments?
This is all downright fucking disgusting. No effort whatsoever has been made to punish the wrongdoers.
My thesis is and has been that America, the greatest civilization in the history of the world, has PEAKED. This my friends is the beginning of a long slow painful decline and as sad as I find it personally we should probably get used to this sort of thing.
We now have corporatism, not democracy. According to various theorists, corporatism was an attempt to create a modern version of feudalism by merging the "corporate" interests with those of the state.
Or maybe it's neofeudalism- the concept is one in which government policies are instituted with the effect (deliberate or otherwise) of systematically increasing the wealth gap between the rich and the poor while increasing the power of the rich and decreasing the power of the poor. That might be more appropriate. Regardless of what you want to call it we are a country almost completely divorced from the ideals that made us great.
There will be no greater testament to our broken government than that of a choice between McCain and Hillary- if it comes to that and I'm cynical enough to assume that will be the case. Finally, belatedly 60-70% of our nation is against the war in Iraq yet we could end up with TWO PRO-WAR candidates as our only choices. Further, it seems painfully obvious that both candidates represent the same established interests (not those of the people).
Do you know why we are not trading at 10K on the DOW? FRAUD. Period.
Losses are intentionally being hidden from the marketplace. Every effort to clean up this mess has been an exercise in further obfuscation.
Where are the regulators? Where are the indictments?
This is all downright fucking disgusting. No effort whatsoever has been made to punish the wrongdoers.
My thesis is and has been that America, the greatest civilization in the history of the world, has PEAKED. This my friends is the beginning of a long slow painful decline and as sad as I find it personally we should probably get used to this sort of thing.
We now have corporatism, not democracy. According to various theorists, corporatism was an attempt to create a modern version of feudalism by merging the "corporate" interests with those of the state.
Or maybe it's neofeudalism- the concept is one in which government policies are instituted with the effect (deliberate or otherwise) of systematically increasing the wealth gap between the rich and the poor while increasing the power of the rich and decreasing the power of the poor. That might be more appropriate. Regardless of what you want to call it we are a country almost completely divorced from the ideals that made us great.
There will be no greater testament to our broken government than that of a choice between McCain and Hillary- if it comes to that and I'm cynical enough to assume that will be the case. Finally, belatedly 60-70% of our nation is against the war in Iraq yet we could end up with TWO PRO-WAR candidates as our only choices. Further, it seems painfully obvious that both candidates represent the same established interests (not those of the people).
Getting More Expensive To Keep That A/C Buzzing
I've been a proponent of a shift to nuclear power as it's cheaper and cleaner than traditional coal-fired plants. In a post-peak-oil world we need to focus on keeping the lights on as opposed to keeping the cars running.
Here though is a problem I hadn't yet considered. A problem that lays at the nexus of our impending energy and water problems.
By MITCH WEISS Associated Press Writer
LAKE NORMAN, N.C. — Nuclear reactors across the Southeast could be forced to throttle back or temporarily shut down later this year because drought is drying up the rivers and lakes that supply power plants with the awesome amounts of cooling water they need to operate.
Utility officials say such shutdowns probably wouldn't result in blackouts. But they could lead to shockingly higher electric bills for millions of Southerners, because the region's utilities may be forced to buy expensive replacement power from other energy companies.
Already, there has been one brief, drought-related shutdown, at a reactor in Alabama over the summer.
"Water is the nuclear industry's Achilles' heel," said Jim Warren, executive director of N.C. Waste Awareness and Reduction Network, an environmental group critical of nuclear power. "You need a lot of water to operate nuclear plants." He added: "This is becoming a crisis."
ClickHere for full article.
Here though is a problem I hadn't yet considered. A problem that lays at the nexus of our impending energy and water problems.
By MITCH WEISS Associated Press Writer
LAKE NORMAN, N.C. — Nuclear reactors across the Southeast could be forced to throttle back or temporarily shut down later this year because drought is drying up the rivers and lakes that supply power plants with the awesome amounts of cooling water they need to operate.
Utility officials say such shutdowns probably wouldn't result in blackouts. But they could lead to shockingly higher electric bills for millions of Southerners, because the region's utilities may be forced to buy expensive replacement power from other energy companies.
Already, there has been one brief, drought-related shutdown, at a reactor in Alabama over the summer.
"Water is the nuclear industry's Achilles' heel," said Jim Warren, executive director of N.C. Waste Awareness and Reduction Network, an environmental group critical of nuclear power. "You need a lot of water to operate nuclear plants." He added: "This is becoming a crisis."
ClickHere for full article.
This Guy is a Moron
Jim Cramer- you never cease to amaze. We are not even in recession yet (according to the faulty numbers we all follow) and he is saying on CNBS to buy "early cycle stocks" like banks, homebuilders and retailers. You gotta be fucking kidding me. Much like early 2000 when he told his sheep to buy high tech he's guiding you to the worst place to buy. Banks? Homebuilders? That's where the problem began (and still remains). Retail? That is the first place our problems are going to spread. This guy just pulls out his dusty playbook and reads it verbatim. "Let's see here....nuclear holocost...buy the banks!"
He is also calling for another inter-meeting Fed cut! Come on. How can anyone take this guy seriously? He is a fucking joke. Right here, right now I would take the other side of his trade. The worst part is that his lunacy is going to hurt many of the people that listen to him. He's made so many obviously bad calls that it's mind-numbing.
Wednesday, February 6, 2008
Market Doomed
Yesterday someone asked me if I knew what stocks to buy in light of all the recent selling. Any time over the last few years this would have been a smart question to ask as buying dips HAS BEEN a good strategy. No longer. We are now in a bear market but it's going to take time to change psychology.
Not only are we in a bear market but it's now in the very early innings. We have a long, long way to go. For me that means containing my excitement in the short term and remaining conservative. I feel so strongly that we are going much lower (and have been waiting for this moment for a long time) that it is hard not to bet the farm.
It's important to keep in perspective that I'm trying to earn a living, not win the lottery. I've been winning consistently by hitting singles and doubles. There is no need to swing for the fences. There will be plenty of opportunities down the road. My best trades are yet to come.
This week I'm printing money with the market getting killed. The only negative is that a lot of money has been left on the table due to lack of aggressiveness. I've scaled back after the beating I took last week. The worst part is that as the market overshot to the upside at the end of last week I was forced to cover several positions that would have made me a rich man this week. I literally bet the farm a couple days too early. Stupid regardless.
The mistakes of last week are behind me. I still have to pay for my market education from time to time (but I learned a lot). Overall I'd say the market makes perfect sense to me about 80% of the time. I know what is going to happen before it does but it's not always so easy to capitalize.
Not only are we in a bear market but it's now in the very early innings. We have a long, long way to go. For me that means containing my excitement in the short term and remaining conservative. I feel so strongly that we are going much lower (and have been waiting for this moment for a long time) that it is hard not to bet the farm.
It's important to keep in perspective that I'm trying to earn a living, not win the lottery. I've been winning consistently by hitting singles and doubles. There is no need to swing for the fences. There will be plenty of opportunities down the road. My best trades are yet to come.
This week I'm printing money with the market getting killed. The only negative is that a lot of money has been left on the table due to lack of aggressiveness. I've scaled back after the beating I took last week. The worst part is that as the market overshot to the upside at the end of last week I was forced to cover several positions that would have made me a rich man this week. I literally bet the farm a couple days too early. Stupid regardless.
The mistakes of last week are behind me. I still have to pay for my market education from time to time (but I learned a lot). Overall I'd say the market makes perfect sense to me about 80% of the time. I know what is going to happen before it does but it's not always so easy to capitalize.
Tuesday, February 5, 2008
Focused
Given the opportunity in the near term I will short more GM and go long more SKF. Banks appear likely to lead us lower again.
Monday, February 4, 2008
Let the Record Show
About the only smart thing I did last week was to cover my YHOO short. Thank goodness- I might have jumped out the window.
Sunday, February 3, 2008
Back to Earth
It would have been almost impossible for me to be any more wrong last week. Looking for more downside I got ran over by Bernanke and the bulls. That bearded hack cut 125 bps in like eight days. The S&P was up almost 5% which is huge in the span of a week. Needless to say I did some serious damage to my accounts.
Turning points are always obvious in retrospect. This one I actually expected but failed to respect. The idea that after the waterfall sell-off we've had the market would bounce for only a few days is just as silly as the idea that after several years of a bull run the bear is over in a couple months.
This personal correction was necessary to check my growing arrogance. When you spend the greater part of seven months being right you start to get a bit too cocky. Consider me sufficently humbled. Going forward the object is start winning again. For now that means a market neutral approach.
Short-term we could trade higher and I do see stocks to be long. However, over the intermediate-term the path of least resistance is likely to be down. This bear market is not even close to over in my opinion but I have learned my lesson about getting too dogmatic. Nonetheless here is what I expect.
The government will continue to attempt to bail everyone out and encourage more consumption. The Fed will continue to attempt to inflate it's way out of our problems. Bulls will continue to reflexively buy the dips. Executives and regulators will continue to collude to hide the dead bodies. Regulation is completely non-existant.
The housing-ATM is broken. Most people will not be able to refinance. Credit will continue to tighten as sane lending practices slowly return. The economy will continue to deteriorate. Eventually more dead bodies will float to the surface.
Something like that- although I'm over-simplifying and leaving a lot out. Big picture I intend to profit one of two ways (hopefully both). Either the Fed succeeds in re-inflating and I win with precious metals (or commodities generally) or the Fed fails and I win by shorting everything that moves (and probably still win with gold).
The new year is still young. It's likely to get even more interesting. Fasten your seatbelts.
Turning points are always obvious in retrospect. This one I actually expected but failed to respect. The idea that after the waterfall sell-off we've had the market would bounce for only a few days is just as silly as the idea that after several years of a bull run the bear is over in a couple months.
This personal correction was necessary to check my growing arrogance. When you spend the greater part of seven months being right you start to get a bit too cocky. Consider me sufficently humbled. Going forward the object is start winning again. For now that means a market neutral approach.
Short-term we could trade higher and I do see stocks to be long. However, over the intermediate-term the path of least resistance is likely to be down. This bear market is not even close to over in my opinion but I have learned my lesson about getting too dogmatic. Nonetheless here is what I expect.
The government will continue to attempt to bail everyone out and encourage more consumption. The Fed will continue to attempt to inflate it's way out of our problems. Bulls will continue to reflexively buy the dips. Executives and regulators will continue to collude to hide the dead bodies. Regulation is completely non-existant.
The housing-ATM is broken. Most people will not be able to refinance. Credit will continue to tighten as sane lending practices slowly return. The economy will continue to deteriorate. Eventually more dead bodies will float to the surface.
Something like that- although I'm over-simplifying and leaving a lot out. Big picture I intend to profit one of two ways (hopefully both). Either the Fed succeeds in re-inflating and I win with precious metals (or commodities generally) or the Fed fails and I win by shorting everything that moves (and probably still win with gold).
The new year is still young. It's likely to get even more interesting. Fasten your seatbelts.
Thursday, January 31, 2008
A Recent Idea Revisited
You may recall my recent BKS call in which I caught the breakdown. It was a beautiful trade, I must say. Covered my short near the lows. Now this dog has rallied right back to the break point. It doesn't get much better than this: major top, breakdown and (now) rally back to point of prior break. I re-entered BKS on the short side yesterday and will be increasing my position here.
One other idea, real quick. GM. I'm licking my chops. I feel like GM is way, way overvalued. Or another way to say it is that I think GM is doomed. I caught a good part of it's recent breakdown but closed it out way too early. Now with a rally back to $28 I'm very excited to get another crack at it. GM is going much, much lower from here.
A Quick Dose of Reality
Just a quick word on reported Q4 GDP which came in at 0.6%...if we were using a realistic (as opposed to completely fucking bogus) inflation rate GDP would already be a negative number. Contraction currently underway- that's the reality.
The consensus in the marketplace appears to be that we've had a bear market for a couple months and now banks, retailers and homebuilders are a buy. The bulls are so arrogant and they'll be proven wrong. There is no way this all over. No way. We are in the early innings and have a long, long way to go before this plays out.
I came into this week extremely negative on the market. I put my money where my mouth is in a big way. Took too much risk and paid the price. Now we may be about to get hammered, just as I said, but early equals wrong. I accept that. It's hard to put your hand back into the fire after having been burned but that is exactly what I'm going to do. I feel very strongly that we have another leg down coming very shortly.
The consensus in the marketplace appears to be that we've had a bear market for a couple months and now banks, retailers and homebuilders are a buy. The bulls are so arrogant and they'll be proven wrong. There is no way this all over. No way. We are in the early innings and have a long, long way to go before this plays out.
I came into this week extremely negative on the market. I put my money where my mouth is in a big way. Took too much risk and paid the price. Now we may be about to get hammered, just as I said, but early equals wrong. I accept that. It's hard to put your hand back into the fire after having been burned but that is exactly what I'm going to do. I feel very strongly that we have another leg down coming very shortly.
Wednesday, January 30, 2008
Holy Whipsaw
Wow. Often the first reaction on Fed day is the wrong reaction. Sure enough on today's crack distribution we rallied 200 pts then turned around and gave it all back (and then some). These markets are nuts. The volatility is insane.
I'm net short again (after getting whipsawed). My line in the sand is 12,500. We'll see what we get now. I feel much better about shorting this market with the crack dealer out of the picture. If we can't go higher from here it is about to get ugly. Potentially really ugly...but I'm not getting ahead of myself this time.
I'm net short again (after getting whipsawed). My line in the sand is 12,500. We'll see what we get now. I feel much better about shorting this market with the crack dealer out of the picture. If we can't go higher from here it is about to get ugly. Potentially really ugly...but I'm not getting ahead of myself this time.
Bernanke Packs the Pipe
Well there you go. 50 bps more. There should no longer be any doubt about Bernanke's willingness to bail out the markets. Do you realize we've slashed 125 bps in a week? Insanity. Obviously you can't be short this market here. It's not the first time Bernanke has de-balled the shorts.
In three days I have given back half of my spectacular profits for the month. Needless to say I'm a bit hostile. Easy come, easy go. I was wrong to lean on the short side. Lesson learned. Time to move on.
This is not over though. The bulls are now in control but those who think that our problems have been solved by the Fed don't understand our problems. There is a whole closet full of shoes left to drop and the bearded one is blowing through his ammo awfully fast.
Bernanke won this round (for now) but I will have my revenge (sometime this year). Mark my word.
In three days I have given back half of my spectacular profits for the month. Needless to say I'm a bit hostile. Easy come, easy go. I was wrong to lean on the short side. Lesson learned. Time to move on.
This is not over though. The bulls are now in control but those who think that our problems have been solved by the Fed don't understand our problems. There is a whole closet full of shoes left to drop and the bearded one is blowing through his ammo awfully fast.
Bernanke won this round (for now) but I will have my revenge (sometime this year). Mark my word.
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
Boom!
It's been great while it lasted but my hot streak has come to an end in spectacular fashion. Yes, I blew myself yesterday- losing a mind-numbing amount of money. It always hurts no matter how great the hot streak that proceeds it.
Now it's time to pick up the pieces. I still have a substantial profit for the month and a handful of positions. I'm wrong, I'm gone. It hurts to be wrong (even in the short term) but I'd rather admit it and get out of the way of the Fed than sacrifice more gains at the alter of my own arrogance.
Nothing more dangerous than a wounded bull. Make no mistake, she is wounded and eventually going down for the count...but that's not the business of the day. We're still in rally mode and I'm still not buying it but am forced to respect it. My intention is to protect my remaining equity and live to fight another day.
Now it's time to pick up the pieces. I still have a substantial profit for the month and a handful of positions. I'm wrong, I'm gone. It hurts to be wrong (even in the short term) but I'd rather admit it and get out of the way of the Fed than sacrifice more gains at the alter of my own arrogance.
Nothing more dangerous than a wounded bull. Make no mistake, she is wounded and eventually going down for the count...but that's not the business of the day. We're still in rally mode and I'm still not buying it but am forced to respect it. My intention is to protect my remaining equity and live to fight another day.
Monday, January 28, 2008
Trying to Calm Down a Touch
This week is going to be nuts and despite my urge to do so it's not time to do anything crazy. You can bet I'm big seller coming into the week but I'm not willing to blow myself up. The market is going to be there presenting opportunities next week and the week after.
Plenty of time. (I think) We are still in the early innings of an extended bear market.
Stay in the game.
Plenty of time. (I think) We are still in the early innings of an extended bear market.
Stay in the game.
Sunday, January 27, 2008
Not Calling For A Crash...
...Only because it's a sucker's game.
BUT...I think we are going to get hammered right here and now. Looks like we might have one more wave down which would likely be more violent than the last. If that is the case it is going to be incredibly UGLY...soon. Honestly, I think we could trade to 11K on the DOW- which is 10% lower from here. Consider the implications.
Why the crazy bearish sentiment on my part? Simple. My watchlist. Going through the list (of like 500 stocks- haven't counted lately) almost EVERY chart looks the same. Broken support/trendline, rally back to previous support/trendline- which is now resistance stopping the advance! I swear it's uncanny how many charts look EXACTLY the same. I have NEVER seen anything like it. I ran through about 80% of my list Saturday and I've had a nauseous feeling ever since.
If the market opens anything but down big on Monday I am going to sell the hell out of it. I'm scared of the risk but I have to do it because the potential opportunity is so huge. Worst case, I'm wrong and get hammered. Getting aggressive with any idea is particularly frightening ahead of the Fed on Wednesday. The risk is much higher than I'm usually willing to take but my intention is to go all in this upcoming week.
The problem is there are so many opportunities that my head is swimming. I want to short chemicals, commercial real estate, financials, transports and oil stocks. I'd short tech too. You could just about throw a dart at the stock tables and hit a good short candidate. They are EVERYWHERE. The key though is financials which have been my market tell ever since last summer. Last week they were strong, hence the general market rebound. Now that they've all rallied back to support (now resistance), well, you can guess what happens next.
It's also worth pointing out that my upside target was hit- 12,500 on the Dow Friday morning and we've been down ever since. I was hoping for 13K but no such luck. Unless I'm wrong and we rally through 12,500 next week as Bernanke's helicopter buzzes overhead, in which case I'm gone.
BUT...I think we are going to get hammered right here and now. Looks like we might have one more wave down which would likely be more violent than the last. If that is the case it is going to be incredibly UGLY...soon. Honestly, I think we could trade to 11K on the DOW- which is 10% lower from here. Consider the implications.
Why the crazy bearish sentiment on my part? Simple. My watchlist. Going through the list (of like 500 stocks- haven't counted lately) almost EVERY chart looks the same. Broken support/trendline, rally back to previous support/trendline- which is now resistance stopping the advance! I swear it's uncanny how many charts look EXACTLY the same. I have NEVER seen anything like it. I ran through about 80% of my list Saturday and I've had a nauseous feeling ever since.
If the market opens anything but down big on Monday I am going to sell the hell out of it. I'm scared of the risk but I have to do it because the potential opportunity is so huge. Worst case, I'm wrong and get hammered. Getting aggressive with any idea is particularly frightening ahead of the Fed on Wednesday. The risk is much higher than I'm usually willing to take but my intention is to go all in this upcoming week.
The problem is there are so many opportunities that my head is swimming. I want to short chemicals, commercial real estate, financials, transports and oil stocks. I'd short tech too. You could just about throw a dart at the stock tables and hit a good short candidate. They are EVERYWHERE. The key though is financials which have been my market tell ever since last summer. Last week they were strong, hence the general market rebound. Now that they've all rallied back to support (now resistance), well, you can guess what happens next.
It's also worth pointing out that my upside target was hit- 12,500 on the Dow Friday morning and we've been down ever since. I was hoping for 13K but no such luck. Unless I'm wrong and we rally through 12,500 next week as Bernanke's helicopter buzzes overhead, in which case I'm gone.
Saturday, January 26, 2008
Not Hard to Believe
Lennar's $1.25 billion fourth-quarter net loss contributed to a full-year loss that topped $1.94 billion and wiped out earnings from the two previous years combined.
ReadMoreHere
Funny. I rent a Lennar mini-mansion. They make a shitty product. We like to walk through the community and count the for sale signs. Speculation was rampant here and the speculators have a hard time selling when the builder is still selling new units- slashing prices and running full page ads in the local newspaper.
ReadMoreHere
Funny. I rent a Lennar mini-mansion. They make a shitty product. We like to walk through the community and count the for sale signs. Speculation was rampant here and the speculators have a hard time selling when the builder is still selling new units- slashing prices and running full page ads in the local newspaper.
Friday, January 25, 2008
New Rules
One great thing about trading markets is that you are always learning and refining your technique. Even the greatest traders feel that they could improve. I learned a lot this week via sub-par performance. Rather than discourage me it serves as motivation to improve my skill set. Along those lines I wanted to list a couple rules that will help me in the future.
These apply to stocks, that's what I trade.
These apply to stocks, that's what I trade.
- When the opening bell rings and you are up 3,4,5% instantly- get the fuck out. Now! Don't sit there thinking how right you are. Don't sit there thinking "wow, maybe I'm going to be up 10% today" because that shit ain't gonna happen.
- When you are standing on the train tracks and you start to feel a vibration (even if it's barely discernible)- move! Take on foot off, get ready to run- trim positions or hedge.
- Don't love your positions. Instead love your equity and don't ever let anyone take her away from you.
- You don't need big positions to make big profits. It's tempting to think that with a big enough position you could make hundreds or thousands of (worthless) dollars in minutes or hours but you could lose it just as quickly. Therein lies the problem. Your plan must allow for you to be wrong because you are not always going to be right.
That's all for now. Eventually I want to compose a comprehensive list which is task I've never completed.
Sending Out A Test Balloon
Initiated five fresh short positions into this morning's strength. Trying to ease back in ever so gently. We'll see how it goes but if I'm wrong, I'm gone.
Let's see who wants to be long going into the weekend.
UPDATE: Damn I'm good. Took a little nap and woke up richer.
Let's see who wants to be long going into the weekend.
UPDATE: Damn I'm good. Took a little nap and woke up richer.
Hibernation Waning
Seeing an awful lot of opportunity again. Despite my plan to stay on the sidelines I'm starting to like the set-up here. My watchlist, nearly empty yesterday, is again teeming with shorts.
Futures trading higher tonight. We get a higher open and I'll likely start selling a bit- especially if it fades. If we open and stay strong all day I may continue to wait. Feel like waiting is the smart play (and we should run higher) but when that nice set-up happens I have to take it.
I went to bed last night with no risk. Took none today. Nice break and now I'm ready to start cracking some skulls.
Don't love the idea of putting too much on the line ahead of the Fed. Although it seems disappointment is a distinct possibility.
Futures trading higher tonight. We get a higher open and I'll likely start selling a bit- especially if it fades. If we open and stay strong all day I may continue to wait. Feel like waiting is the smart play (and we should run higher) but when that nice set-up happens I have to take it.
I went to bed last night with no risk. Took none today. Nice break and now I'm ready to start cracking some skulls.
Don't love the idea of putting too much on the line ahead of the Fed. Although it seems disappointment is a distinct possibility.
Thursday, January 24, 2008
Broken Routine
On my seven month winning streak I have settled into a now familiar routine. Lately at least that partially consists of finding stocks to sell and cursing bulls.
Now I sit on the sidelines feeling like I have no purpose or utility. Spent the morning watching cartoons and "The Cosby Show" and "A Different World" with my infant son. Always liked Dwayne Wayne. Sinbad is cool. Had some leftover pasta for lunch.
Keeping an eye on the market as it yo-yos back and forth wildly and without any direction. Trying not to watch too much. As much as I want to be out, looking at it makes me want to trade it.
Historically I'm not too good at sitting on the sidelines. No matter what my instincts tell me. Couldn't resist entirely and shorted some LAZ- low risk with a stop just above $35. See.
One parting observation: Jon Stewart desperately needs his writers back.
UPDATE: Closed LAZ short for quick lunch money profit. Bet it goes lower from here but I'm not putting any money on it.
Now I sit on the sidelines feeling like I have no purpose or utility. Spent the morning watching cartoons and "The Cosby Show" and "A Different World" with my infant son. Always liked Dwayne Wayne. Sinbad is cool. Had some leftover pasta for lunch.
Keeping an eye on the market as it yo-yos back and forth wildly and without any direction. Trying not to watch too much. As much as I want to be out, looking at it makes me want to trade it.
Historically I'm not too good at sitting on the sidelines. No matter what my instincts tell me. Couldn't resist entirely and shorted some LAZ- low risk with a stop just above $35. See.
One parting observation: Jon Stewart desperately needs his writers back.
UPDATE: Closed LAZ short for quick lunch money profit. Bet it goes lower from here but I'm not putting any money on it.
The Gameplan
After closing it down and going flat yesterday afternoon the market proceeded to completely and utterly de-ball the bears. We ended up a couple hundred points on the DOW. The range for the day was something like 630 pts (or 5%-ish)! That's ridiculous. If you can trade this market, you can trade any market.
I was laying on the beach with my profits safely on the sidelines. Life is good.
You would think as a bear I would be rooting for the market to go down hard immediately. You'd be wrong. I don't want to see this thing crash or go down all at once. I can't trade that. We need this rally (bulls and bears both) to calm things down a bit. Frankly this last week or so has been very stressful and we need to take the edge off.
12,500 on the DOW seems like a good short-term target but I'd really like to see 13K. Think of how many bulls we could sucker back in on a rally of that magnitude. For us to see 13K Bernanke is going to have to give the market another hit off the pipe (50Bps is what they want). Not sure that will happen but he is the market's bitch so anything is possible. I'll probably try to sit tight until the Fed announcement on Wednesday, then re-evaluate. I could see a scenario in which the bearded one disappoints the market and we go down from there but hope to see something more sustained to the upside.
Worth noting: the metals have held up nicely.
I was laying on the beach with my profits safely on the sidelines. Life is good.
You would think as a bear I would be rooting for the market to go down hard immediately. You'd be wrong. I don't want to see this thing crash or go down all at once. I can't trade that. We need this rally (bulls and bears both) to calm things down a bit. Frankly this last week or so has been very stressful and we need to take the edge off.
12,500 on the DOW seems like a good short-term target but I'd really like to see 13K. Think of how many bulls we could sucker back in on a rally of that magnitude. For us to see 13K Bernanke is going to have to give the market another hit off the pipe (50Bps is what they want). Not sure that will happen but he is the market's bitch so anything is possible. I'll probably try to sit tight until the Fed announcement on Wednesday, then re-evaluate. I could see a scenario in which the bearded one disappoints the market and we go down from there but hope to see something more sustained to the upside.
Worth noting: the metals have held up nicely.
Wednesday, January 23, 2008
Sweet Jesus
We've lifted a good 200 pts off the lows now. The volatility is insane! I have cut my largest positions back to a more manageable size and put on a hedge. I still remain net short- 10 shorts, 2 longs (added one this morning) and a hedge which will come off by day's end.
UPDATE: Make that 300 pts. Unreal! Back to flat on the day. I took off my hedge too early (for a nice profit) and covered a couple other things. Still net short, but to a lesser degree. Stops are in place. Today could have gone better for me as too many profits have been returned to the market gods- like yesterday. But I'm up. A bounce would be just fine with me. Let's all just calm down a bit.
UPDATE II: 400 pts now. I'm gone. Basically flat. Not pleased with today's P/L considering where I was this morning but I'm still up (some). Now that I'm off the train tracks I hope we rally 500 pts from here. Go Bulls! Sometimes the hardest thing to do is admit when you are wrong and at least for this very moment it's wrong to be short just about anything. Hopefully we rally big thereby offering better entry points from which I can further emasculate these bulls.
Off to the beach. Have a nice day.
UPDATE: Make that 300 pts. Unreal! Back to flat on the day. I took off my hedge too early (for a nice profit) and covered a couple other things. Still net short, but to a lesser degree. Stops are in place. Today could have gone better for me as too many profits have been returned to the market gods- like yesterday. But I'm up. A bounce would be just fine with me. Let's all just calm down a bit.
UPDATE II: 400 pts now. I'm gone. Basically flat. Not pleased with today's P/L considering where I was this morning but I'm still up (some). Now that I'm off the train tracks I hope we rally 500 pts from here. Go Bulls! Sometimes the hardest thing to do is admit when you are wrong and at least for this very moment it's wrong to be short just about anything. Hopefully we rally big thereby offering better entry points from which I can further emasculate these bulls.
Off to the beach. Have a nice day.
Now What?
We've tested the lows- trading just now to 11,644 on the DOW. The dip buyers are out, calling a bottom I'm sure. I want to get out of the way but I love my positions and I've decided to sit tight.
Only thing I did was to take off my long position in REW which is a 2x short technology ETF (up 16% this week). Considered covering my DECK short- seeing as it's down $16 today- but I think it's a trend line break and likely to trade much lower eventually. See if I can stick with it.
Bulls better hope these lows hold.
Only thing I did was to take off my long position in REW which is a 2x short technology ETF (up 16% this week). Considered covering my DECK short- seeing as it's down $16 today- but I think it's a trend line break and likely to trade much lower eventually. See if I can stick with it.
Bulls better hope these lows hold.
Goddamn It...
...I hate this fucking stock. I short it and it goes against me. I cover and it reverses.
BXP- one day you will break support and I will be waiting. It might actually be done bouncing higher here but I'm a little bit gun shy considering my recent experience.
Courage in the Face of Uncertainty
I could probably count on one hand the number of times I've been as lopsidedly short as I am right now. After the action yesterday morning (potentially a key reversal), to stand in there in the afternoon and be a major seller was perhaps one of the ballsiest moves I've ever made. Sure I was uncertain (even taking down some exposure into the close out of fear) but I stuck to what has been working. Stuck to my discipline.
Now, I intend to be paid for my foresight.
Must say- I've talked a lot about the potential for the "shorting opportunity of a lifetime" and (not looking at the indexes but just individual issues) I'd have to say it is more or less right here right now. Technically yesterday afternoon, and I nailed it.
Now, I intend to be paid for my foresight.
Must say- I've talked a lot about the potential for the "shorting opportunity of a lifetime" and (not looking at the indexes but just individual issues) I'd have to say it is more or less right here right now. Technically yesterday afternoon, and I nailed it.
Tuesday, January 22, 2008
Whiplash!
Well we opened today as the futures indicated- down about 460 pts five minutes after the bell. How much worse would it have been without the panic 75 Bps emergency inter-meeting Fed cut? Anyway, from the lows we then proceeded to rally 430 pts- virtually in a straight line- erasing most of the losses.
As a bear this is a gift. Not only does the market now present you with better entry points but in the process Bernanke used some heavy artillery. That shady bearded bastard only has so much ammunition. Now the inter-meeting cut is out of the way. We know the addict will get even more crack when they meet next week.
Today the dip buyers were out in full force in the belief that we have been saved by the Fed. Oh and the "second half is going to be really great." I tend to disagree. We are in the early innings of this unwinding. There is a whole closet full of shoes waiting to drop.
I sucked today. Really did. First bad day of the new year. I KNEW LAST NIGHT EXACTLY WHAT WOULD HAPPEN and still botched it somehow. Didn't cover (as I intended to) my shorts into the weakness this morning. Looking a gift horse in the eye. My broker's website (those dirty hatfuckers) CRASHED (which I actually had considered also ahead of time) and was down for two hours as the market shot straight up. After that I generated a bunch of commissions as I had no idea what the fuck I was doing- changing my mind every 10 minutes.
Bottom line. Once I settled down and ran through the charts on my watchlist I saw a bunch of appealing opportunities on the short side. Started selling and by the time I stopped had an awful lot of exposure- risk. Problem is, I could see the DOW rallying a good 500 points higher from here. Scary. Perhaps ill-advised. I'm willing to risk it because I feel it's the disciplined move to make. I have been successful by making low risk trades and cutting my losers. The charts I see are beautiful. There are a bunch of near-perfect set-ups. If I'm wrong I'm gone.
Either I am wrong- in which case I go flat-ish into the Fed meeting securing a great month based on what I did early on. Or I'm right and win big. I should know real soon.
AAPL disappointment should help.
As a bear this is a gift. Not only does the market now present you with better entry points but in the process Bernanke used some heavy artillery. That shady bearded bastard only has so much ammunition. Now the inter-meeting cut is out of the way. We know the addict will get even more crack when they meet next week.
Today the dip buyers were out in full force in the belief that we have been saved by the Fed. Oh and the "second half is going to be really great." I tend to disagree. We are in the early innings of this unwinding. There is a whole closet full of shoes waiting to drop.
I sucked today. Really did. First bad day of the new year. I KNEW LAST NIGHT EXACTLY WHAT WOULD HAPPEN and still botched it somehow. Didn't cover (as I intended to) my shorts into the weakness this morning. Looking a gift horse in the eye. My broker's website (those dirty hatfuckers) CRASHED (which I actually had considered also ahead of time) and was down for two hours as the market shot straight up. After that I generated a bunch of commissions as I had no idea what the fuck I was doing- changing my mind every 10 minutes.
Bottom line. Once I settled down and ran through the charts on my watchlist I saw a bunch of appealing opportunities on the short side. Started selling and by the time I stopped had an awful lot of exposure- risk. Problem is, I could see the DOW rallying a good 500 points higher from here. Scary. Perhaps ill-advised. I'm willing to risk it because I feel it's the disciplined move to make. I have been successful by making low risk trades and cutting my losers. The charts I see are beautiful. There are a bunch of near-perfect set-ups. If I'm wrong I'm gone.
Either I am wrong- in which case I go flat-ish into the Fed meeting securing a great month based on what I did early on. Or I'm right and win big. I should know real soon.
AAPL disappointment should help.
Dislocation!
Today is going to be nuts. DOW futures down 500 overnight, S&P futures down 60. Bernanke cuts 75 Bps in an attempt to delay the inevitable. Paulson out banging the table on a stimulus plan.
Usually avoid watching CNBS but I couldn't resist this morning. Funny shit- I really think Jim Cramer's head might spin right off his shoulders. Gotta get back to work. Much much more to say on all this later. Good luck out there.
Usually avoid watching CNBS but I couldn't resist this morning. Funny shit- I really think Jim Cramer's head might spin right off his shoulders. Gotta get back to work. Much much more to say on all this later. Good luck out there.
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