The Gameplan

After closing it down and going flat yesterday afternoon the market proceeded to completely and utterly de-ball the bears. We ended up a couple hundred points on the DOW. The range for the day was something like 630 pts (or 5%-ish)! That's ridiculous. If you can trade this market, you can trade any market.

I was laying on the beach with my profits safely on the sidelines. Life is good.

You would think as a bear I would be rooting for the market to go down hard immediately. You'd be wrong. I don't want to see this thing crash or go down all at once. I can't trade that. We need this rally (bulls and bears both) to calm things down a bit. Frankly this last week or so has been very stressful and we need to take the edge off.

12,500 on the DOW seems like a good short-term target but I'd really like to see 13K. Think of how many bulls we could sucker back in on a rally of that magnitude. For us to see 13K Bernanke is going to have to give the market another hit off the pipe (50Bps is what they want). Not sure that will happen but he is the market's bitch so anything is possible. I'll probably try to sit tight until the Fed announcement on Wednesday, then re-evaluate. I could see a scenario in which the bearded one disappoints the market and we go down from there but hope to see something more sustained to the upside.

Worth noting: the metals have held up nicely.