Market Doomed

Yesterday someone asked me if I knew what stocks to buy in light of all the recent selling. Any time over the last few years this would have been a smart question to ask as buying dips HAS BEEN a good strategy. No longer. We are now in a bear market but it's going to take time to change psychology.

Not only are we in a bear market but it's now in the very early innings. We have a long, long way to go. For me that means containing my excitement in the short term and remaining conservative. I feel so strongly that we are going much lower (and have been waiting for this moment for a long time) that it is hard not to bet the farm.

It's important to keep in perspective that I'm trying to earn a living, not win the lottery. I've been winning consistently by hitting singles and doubles. There is no need to swing for the fences. There will be plenty of opportunities down the road. My best trades are yet to come.

This week I'm printing money with the market getting killed. The only negative is that a lot of money has been left on the table due to lack of aggressiveness. I've scaled back after the beating I took last week. The worst part is that as the market overshot to the upside at the end of last week I was forced to cover several positions that would have made me a rich man this week. I literally bet the farm a couple days too early. Stupid regardless.

The mistakes of last week are behind me. I still have to pay for my market education from time to time (but I learned a lot). Overall I'd say the market makes perfect sense to me about 80% of the time. I know what is going to happen before it does but it's not always so easy to capitalize.