On the first trading day of March I said it wasn't too late to sell. That was 500 DOW points ago. Whew! That was a quick 500. Now the consensus seems to be that we are oversold and due for a bounce. Fuck the consensus. Though, I suppose I could see 12K on the DOW one more time. Test those levels from below and see some names rally back to broken trendlines.
More than likely we continue to bleed. Everything is broken. Even the last of the bull markets are breaking. I see almost nowhere to hide. We are in a bear.
You can be certain violent rallies will surprise us out of nowhere but the trend is down. Rallies are selling opportunities.
So there you go. Both sides of the coin. The idea is not to hedge myself (clearly I remain a bear) but to remain flexible to what the market offers. Always remain flexible and never proclaim yourself smarter than the markets.
As for my personal trading, it's been difficult insofar as I withdrew from the markets at the end of last week and as a result ended up poorly positioned to take advantage of the recent swoon. I predicted as much Wednesday afternoon. Murphy's Law.
This morning I came back hungry. Shorted a handful of names and bulked up my exposure (which remains smallish). That worked and I was back to outperforming today. My inclination is to get really aggressive to make up for lost time but I don't make those mistakes anymore. I'm easing back in and letting go of the many attractive opportunities I missed.
Missing opportunities is difficult but new ones will arise. You just have to keep telling yourself that. I finally reached the level where I have the necessary skills to make money consistently over time. That alone is worth more than anything else. Therefore I know for certain new opportunities will present themselves. They were there this morning even after the two important days of action I missed last week.
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