Here is an absolute must see. Jim Rogers on CNBC World. Please enjoy.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/23588079
Wednesday, March 19, 2008
De-Balled
Coming into yesterday's Fed day celebration net short was a very effective strategy for losing copious amounts of capital. I sensed as much ahead of time but decided to honor my stops rather than immediately running for cover. To be honest I don't think I've ever been so unemotional while losing such large sums of money. There's my silver lining insofar as I consider it to be an important signpost in my evolution as a trader.
Only a few of my stops have been hit. I expected a bounce. Maybe not 420 pts in one day but I'm not surprised that I have to play some defense. That's fine. Ultimately the longer the bulls remain in denial about the magnitude of the problems we face the better entry points I'll get. I have plenty of dry powder to put to work at higher prices if need be.
Only a few of my stops have been hit. I expected a bounce. Maybe not 420 pts in one day but I'm not surprised that I have to play some defense. That's fine. Ultimately the longer the bulls remain in denial about the magnitude of the problems we face the better entry points I'll get. I have plenty of dry powder to put to work at higher prices if need be.
Tuesday, March 18, 2008
Party Time
Futures up strong this morning. Fed announces latest cut at 2:15PM/EST. Time for a party. Our financial companies are technically insolvent but Ben's gonna cut so fuck it let's buy. All the pundits are calling a bottom already. Based on a test of the lows this week I can see the case for that I'm just not buying it.
Coming in ahead of the Fed net short my neck is placed firmly on the chopping block. Trading involves risk. I wish they'd just cut the FFT to zero so we could move beyond this fallacy that the Fed is going to save us.
Coming in ahead of the Fed net short my neck is placed firmly on the chopping block. Trading involves risk. I wish they'd just cut the FFT to zero so we could move beyond this fallacy that the Fed is going to save us.
Monday, March 17, 2008
Sell the Rally
So we opened down hard and traded as low as 11,750. Then snapped back to 12K (green on the day). That's 250 pts in an hour and a half. Now we're slowly working our way back down.
I used the big bounce to get even more net short. Now positioned perhaps the most aggressively net short I've ever been. We may bounce around here some more, in fact I'd expect it which is why I still have some dry powder, but I don't think there is anyway these lows hold.
I used the big bounce to get even more net short. Now positioned perhaps the most aggressively net short I've ever been. We may bounce around here some more, in fact I'd expect it which is why I still have some dry powder, but I don't think there is anyway these lows hold.
Just A Couple Thoughts
1. Slashing rates will do nothing to save us. Bernanke has been cutting for months- how has that worked so far? The only thing he has succeeded in doing is destroying the dollar.
2. If BSC is only worth $2 I can think of a whole list of financials that are virtually worthless. Expect all financial companies to be re-priced. Many firms will eventually go to zero.
3. If BSC CEO comes on CNBC as he did the middle of last week and says everything is fine with his firm and they have not been significantly impacted and two days later they are broke then the guy is a fucking liar! Period. You don't go from just fine to broke in two days. Where are the handcuffs? Where are the regulators? WTF?!
2. If BSC is only worth $2 I can think of a whole list of financials that are virtually worthless. Expect all financial companies to be re-priced. Many firms will eventually go to zero.
3. If BSC CEO comes on CNBC as he did the middle of last week and says everything is fine with his firm and they have not been significantly impacted and two days later they are broke then the guy is a fucking liar! Period. You don't go from just fine to broke in two days. Where are the handcuffs? Where are the regulators? WTF?!
The Gates of Hell Have Opened
That's right folks. Allow me to again reiterate that we are completely fucking doomed. News over the weekend is that BSC is getting taken under for two bucks a share. That's right- $2. WOW. Also the Fed cut the discount rate on Sunday night despite their meeting scheduled for Tuesday. Can you say panic? You can't wait two days?!
So we're fucked. No surprise here.
This month has been extremely volatile. Last week I took some hits. Tuesday when the Fed orchestrated it's bailout and Thursday when I shorted into the hole were both painful days. However, I stuck to my convictions and come in this morning aggressively net short. My only wish is that I was more aggressively net short. I see opportunities everywhere.
Expect this holiday shortened week to be nothing short of absolutely insane. Fed meets on Tuesday, we have several economic numbers slated for release, and option expiration in addition to the elevated possibility of an outright crash here and now. Fasten your seatbelts- the ride is about to get bumpy.
So we're fucked. No surprise here.
This month has been extremely volatile. Last week I took some hits. Tuesday when the Fed orchestrated it's bailout and Thursday when I shorted into the hole were both painful days. However, I stuck to my convictions and come in this morning aggressively net short. My only wish is that I was more aggressively net short. I see opportunities everywhere.
Expect this holiday shortened week to be nothing short of absolutely insane. Fed meets on Tuesday, we have several economic numbers slated for release, and option expiration in addition to the elevated possibility of an outright crash here and now. Fasten your seatbelts- the ride is about to get bumpy.
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