Short the coal stocks. All three of these coal names are sporting rather pretty head and shoulders tops. All three sitting right at the neckline.
Thursday, July 17, 2008
Just for Fun
Don't think that I'll be trading today. Much more likely that I'll be laying on the couch watching the Tour de France but since I made my watchlist for today anyway here is one idea.
Short the coal stocks. All three of these coal names are sporting rather pretty head and shoulders tops. All three sitting right at the neckline.
Short the coal stocks. All three of these coal names are sporting rather pretty head and shoulders tops. All three sitting right at the neckline.
Trying to Resist
OK. I admit it.
I set my alarm this morning and rolled my ass out of bed with the intention of doing my homework before the open. Can't help myself. What if I want to get long some DNA or short some ORCL? My fear, I suppose, is that the rally will fail and I need to be ready...or something like that. Maybe it's that I'm excited to finally see all those green candles.
Looking at the futures up big confirms that I don't need to do much of anything. Couldn't be happier. Run baby run.
I set my alarm this morning and rolled my ass out of bed with the intention of doing my homework before the open. Can't help myself. What if I want to get long some DNA or short some ORCL? My fear, I suppose, is that the rally will fail and I need to be ready...or something like that. Maybe it's that I'm excited to finally see all those green candles.
Looking at the futures up big confirms that I don't need to do much of anything. Couldn't be happier. Run baby run.
Wednesday, July 16, 2008
Cold Hard Cash
Trading account is flat.
Vacation has officially begun.
I'm lovin' this action. Stocks are spiking all around and the shorts are getting buried. I can just imagine if I was still short I would be getting ground up into dust and returned to the earth today. Yeah fuck that. I'll keep my profits (most of them anyway), thank you very much.
Meanwhile this little bull orgy, should it continue, will set up copious opportunities upon my return. Just makes me feel all warm and fuzzy inside. Going away without my laptop will even be a good thing insofar as it will keep me from shorting into a rally that still has room to run. My best case scenario may just play out yet.
So unless I buy a small island in the Florida Keys and never return I'll be back on Wednesday, tanned a deep a shade of bronze, rested, recovered and relaxed. See you then.
Vacation has officially begun.
I'm lovin' this action. Stocks are spiking all around and the shorts are getting buried. I can just imagine if I was still short I would be getting ground up into dust and returned to the earth today. Yeah fuck that. I'll keep my profits (most of them anyway), thank you very much.
Meanwhile this little bull orgy, should it continue, will set up copious opportunities upon my return. Just makes me feel all warm and fuzzy inside. Going away without my laptop will even be a good thing insofar as it will keep me from shorting into a rally that still has room to run. My best case scenario may just play out yet.
So unless I buy a small island in the Florida Keys and never return I'll be back on Wednesday, tanned a deep a shade of bronze, rested, recovered and relaxed. See you then.
Flat As a Pancake and Unofficially on Vacation
That's it. I'm sitting on one small long and one small short. Will likely be completely flat very very soon. Dow up 122 just now. To that I say: fucking awesome. Run baby run. At least for a few more days (like Thursday, Friday, Monday and Tuesday- I should be back and caught up by Wednesday).
As long as the financials continue to rally this move up is to be respected. Hopefully the inevitable great selling opportunity will wait until I'm back to work.
So, guess that's it. As much as I want to call it a day and start my vacation, it's very difficult to walk away from the market. As long as the market doesn't straight up crash in the next four sessions I'll be cool. Odds are decidedly in my favor on that one but still, it makes me nervous to walk away. I watch so many situations waiting for just the right set-up. Wonder how many set-ups I will be missing. Could be some name I've been watching for two years waiting for just this one chance and once it happens it's gone.
Poor me. I have to go on vacation. And I need it. The last couple weeks have been tough for me. Haven't felt motivated or hungry but uninspired and distracted. Yet the trading account is up almost five percent this month after smashing the cover off the ball last month. So why be greedy?
Upon my return there will be a new account for me to grow and profit from. The opportunities will still exist. Better yet I'll be fresh and refocused.
As long as the financials continue to rally this move up is to be respected. Hopefully the inevitable great selling opportunity will wait until I'm back to work.
So, guess that's it. As much as I want to call it a day and start my vacation, it's very difficult to walk away from the market. As long as the market doesn't straight up crash in the next four sessions I'll be cool. Odds are decidedly in my favor on that one but still, it makes me nervous to walk away. I watch so many situations waiting for just the right set-up. Wonder how many set-ups I will be missing. Could be some name I've been watching for two years waiting for just this one chance and once it happens it's gone.
Poor me. I have to go on vacation. And I need it. The last couple weeks have been tough for me. Haven't felt motivated or hungry but uninspired and distracted. Yet the trading account is up almost five percent this month after smashing the cover off the ball last month. So why be greedy?
Upon my return there will be a new account for me to grow and profit from. The opportunities will still exist. Better yet I'll be fresh and refocused.
Tuesday, July 15, 2008
Yet Hope Springs Eternal
Big reversal today. We opened with death and destruction and now everything is just peachy.
My fat gains of this morning have thus melted away. I have taken down risk again in hopes that this bounce can last. Regardless of how much I'm in love with my latest round of short sales I will cover that shit on the drop of a hat and profits will be protected. Period. My gains have been made for this month; targets have been hit. Vacation is near. Why fuck it up?
A handful of shorts remain on my book, all profitable positions. Wort case: they get covered for modest gains. Winners will not be allowed to turn into losers. Besides we may not be done with the downside. If we start knifing lower once again I'll be back on offense. Until then I sit (rooting for these weak ass bulls).
My fat gains of this morning have thus melted away. I have taken down risk again in hopes that this bounce can last. Regardless of how much I'm in love with my latest round of short sales I will cover that shit on the drop of a hat and profits will be protected. Period. My gains have been made for this month; targets have been hit. Vacation is near. Why fuck it up?
A handful of shorts remain on my book, all profitable positions. Wort case: they get covered for modest gains. Winners will not be allowed to turn into losers. Besides we may not be done with the downside. If we start knifing lower once again I'll be back on offense. Until then I sit (rooting for these weak ass bulls).
Monday, July 14, 2008
So Much For Wishful Thinking
Poof! There goes your bullshit bailout rally.
Rally got sold. So much for my wishful thinking/best case scenario. As long as stocks keep falling I'll keep shorting them. Line in the sand is 1425 on the S&P, we've bounced off it twice now.
Hmmm. I wonder if all of these bailouts are starting to lose their shine. Ominous indeed. Paulson and Bernanke are trapped and the market is starting to sense it. Gold will continue to work here.
I'd keep your crash helmet on just in case. And how far are we really from a series of bank runs? Interesting times we live in.
Rally got sold. So much for my wishful thinking/best case scenario. As long as stocks keep falling I'll keep shorting them. Line in the sand is 1425 on the S&P, we've bounced off it twice now.
Hmmm. I wonder if all of these bailouts are starting to lose their shine. Ominous indeed. Paulson and Bernanke are trapped and the market is starting to sense it. Gold will continue to work here.
I'd keep your crash helmet on just in case. And how far are we really from a series of bank runs? Interesting times we live in.
Best Case Scenario
Well here comes another "Bernanke/Paulson Bailout Rally". Futures up big this Monday morning.
Clearly this Fannie/Freddie bailout is an unmitigated disaster and throwing billions of dollars into these black holes is a great way to make the billions disappear.
Here is what I'm hoping for: a big frickin' rally, all this week and into next. See, I leave for vacation later this week and won't be back until Tuesday of next week. My intention was to get small and not have to worry about the market gyrations while I'm sitting in the Florida Keys drinking fruity cocktails. Besides looking at literally hundreds of charts this weekend it's obvious to me that we need a good rally to create opportunity.
I won't be buying stocks. Not looking to play this thing from the long side, aside from my gold position and maybe adding some energy names. With any luck I can get even smaller (having already done so thanks to Friday's afternoon rumors) this week without much damage and just put it on cruise control until the middle of next week. With any luck I'll be in vacation mode by this afternoon, provided this rally has some legs. Let's hope...
Clearly this Fannie/Freddie bailout is an unmitigated disaster and throwing billions of dollars into these black holes is a great way to make the billions disappear.
Here is what I'm hoping for: a big frickin' rally, all this week and into next. See, I leave for vacation later this week and won't be back until Tuesday of next week. My intention was to get small and not have to worry about the market gyrations while I'm sitting in the Florida Keys drinking fruity cocktails. Besides looking at literally hundreds of charts this weekend it's obvious to me that we need a good rally to create opportunity.
I won't be buying stocks. Not looking to play this thing from the long side, aside from my gold position and maybe adding some energy names. With any luck I can get even smaller (having already done so thanks to Friday's afternoon rumors) this week without much damage and just put it on cruise control until the middle of next week. With any luck I'll be in vacation mode by this afternoon, provided this rally has some legs. Let's hope...
Friday, July 11, 2008
Not This Time Ben
God I hate Ben Bernanke. If I could string that man up by his testicles I would, without hesitation. We didn't even make through the day before he dreamt up the next bailout.
The Fed will now open the discount window to Fannie and Freddie? Wow. This man is fucking batshit insane. Plan for higher interest rates and much higher gold prices. Shit at this rate it won't be long before it will be cheaper to wipe your ass with dollar bills than with toilet paper.
You might think a gold bull like myself would enjoy these sorts of things. You'd be wrong. See I have a son and I don't especially care for Bernanke trying to bankrupt his generation before he can even form a complete sentence.
The silver lining is that this bullshit went down on a Friday. I needed to take down some risk anyway. It's better than walking into a buzzsaw on a Monday morning. So I say fuck you Bernanke! I will keep all of my profits today. Hell with it, I'm calling it a day. A sad one for America indeed.
I'm pretty fired up. You can expect that I will rain down fire on this market next week, then I'll go on vacation. I'm especially pist for having covered LEH into the pop.
Have a nice weekend comrades.
The Fed will now open the discount window to Fannie and Freddie? Wow. This man is fucking batshit insane. Plan for higher interest rates and much higher gold prices. Shit at this rate it won't be long before it will be cheaper to wipe your ass with dollar bills than with toilet paper.
You might think a gold bull like myself would enjoy these sorts of things. You'd be wrong. See I have a son and I don't especially care for Bernanke trying to bankrupt his generation before he can even form a complete sentence.
The silver lining is that this bullshit went down on a Friday. I needed to take down some risk anyway. It's better than walking into a buzzsaw on a Monday morning. So I say fuck you Bernanke! I will keep all of my profits today. Hell with it, I'm calling it a day. A sad one for America indeed.
I'm pretty fired up. You can expect that I will rain down fire on this market next week, then I'll go on vacation. I'm especially pist for having covered LEH into the pop.
Have a nice weekend comrades.
Q & A
Q: Who owns all those Fannie and Freddie bonds not sold to the Chinese?
A: Your pension fund.
Oops. You're fucked.
NOTE: Your money market fund owns them too. As a matter of fact they're everywhere.
A: Your pension fund.
Oops. You're fucked.
NOTE: Your money market fund owns them too. As a matter of fact they're everywhere.
One Day Closer to the Next Bailout
Good Morning!
What a nice day it is; the sun is out, the birds are chirping and the US financial system is crashing down around us. How pleasant.
Fannie and Freddie are inevitably zeros and wouldn't you know it- gold is going nuts. I believe I called that shit. Again.
Seriously, I've been talking about the likelihood of bloodbath for years and I can honestly say I've never seen the financial system so close to complete and utter collapse. Be afraid, be very afraid. And don't think we can't crash.
When the next big bailout comes I'm guessing gold goes nuts as the dollar craters and interest rates go higher. My question is this: once the government acts to bailout all those who have acted irresponsibly who is going to bail out the government? Hmmm. No one. This is truly too big to bail. Bernanke is just going to print money out of thin air and monetize all that bad debt. Which brings us back to why you must own gold.
Thus far I'm up about 3% on the day. I covered a few shorts this morning and bought more SLV at the open. You must own precious metals as a hedge against the crazy shit Bernanke is going to pull. Consider it an insurance policy. When your dollar no longer buys you so much as gumball you'll be able to trade your gold for a goat.
What a nice day it is; the sun is out, the birds are chirping and the US financial system is crashing down around us. How pleasant.
Fannie and Freddie are inevitably zeros and wouldn't you know it- gold is going nuts. I believe I called that shit. Again.
Seriously, I've been talking about the likelihood of bloodbath for years and I can honestly say I've never seen the financial system so close to complete and utter collapse. Be afraid, be very afraid. And don't think we can't crash.
When the next big bailout comes I'm guessing gold goes nuts as the dollar craters and interest rates go higher. My question is this: once the government acts to bailout all those who have acted irresponsibly who is going to bail out the government? Hmmm. No one. This is truly too big to bail. Bernanke is just going to print money out of thin air and monetize all that bad debt. Which brings us back to why you must own gold.
Thus far I'm up about 3% on the day. I covered a few shorts this morning and bought more SLV at the open. You must own precious metals as a hedge against the crazy shit Bernanke is going to pull. Consider it an insurance policy. When your dollar no longer buys you so much as gumball you'll be able to trade your gold for a goat.
Thursday, July 10, 2008
America Continues to Hit New Lows
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D91R4LR00&show_article=1
Congress has just eviscerated the fourth amendent. Just gives you that warm fuzzy feeling doesn't it?
NOTE: I will soon be writing this from some other fucking country.
Congress has just eviscerated the fourth amendent. Just gives you that warm fuzzy feeling doesn't it?
NOTE: I will soon be writing this from some other fucking country.
Another Day, Another "Bottom"
My godly gains of this morning have turned to mush as the market rips higher. Up a hundy once again. Let me just say this: those who think that with the economy going to hell in a hand basket it will be safe to hide out in tech have no business managing money. Somehow tech is not GDP-sensitive? The biggest corporate buyers of tech are in the financial services industry. I think maybe that might be a problem going forward.
DELL is a good example of this moronic notion.
Just for fun I shorted some LEH. Either I get stopped out @ $20 or it goes to zero (or whatever price the Fed bails it out at- say $10).
DELL is a good example of this moronic notion.
Just for fun I shorted some LEH. Either I get stopped out @ $20 or it goes to zero (or whatever price the Fed bails it out at- say $10).
All Is Again Right With the World
My short exposure has been increased to reasonable levels once again. Sold some DELL, PCLN, TOL and more BX. Also initiated what I like to call "the balls of steel trade" via short GOOG.
What do you know? Profits are accruing to me in short order.
To pair with all my short exposure I continue to increase my metals exposure. My current disposition is long gold, short everything else. Not unlike my previous disposition which had been long energy, short everything else.
Making money on the short side still seems almost too easy and that makes me nervous.
Oh and I'm long AEM. Which is nice. Buy the miners here. Like GG too.
What do you know? Profits are accruing to me in short order.
To pair with all my short exposure I continue to increase my metals exposure. My current disposition is long gold, short everything else. Not unlike my previous disposition which had been long energy, short everything else.
Making money on the short side still seems almost too easy and that makes me nervous.
Oh and I'm long AEM. Which is nice. Buy the miners here. Like GG too.
Wednesday, July 9, 2008
Random Thoughts
One. Sitting here on the sidelines of the market action I must say I enjoy watching my son's UGMA account blowing up. He's 20 months old now and up 15% on the year by shorting commercial real estate. He's a bear just like daddy.
Two. If Iran were to wipe Israel of the map I really wouldn't care. A few less lobbyists in Washington.
Two. If Iran were to wipe Israel of the map I really wouldn't care. A few less lobbyists in Washington.
Fun to Watch
Well, yesterday turned out not to be a yawner after all. While I was sitting on my porch bullshitting with a buddy the market screamed higher thereby stripping me of my gains for the month. Not big gains but nonetheless I'm back to zero on the month.
Once I checked the market at about 3:30 it was full on damage control mode. Already small, now my exposure is almost nonexistent. I shoot first and ask questions later. I'm keen to the possibility of a big bounce although my hunch is that we have more downside first. It's one of those extremely rare instances where I would rather just sit on my hands and watch. I'm sure as hell not going to be buying much of anything.
Now today the bulls are getting killed again. Dow down 155 at the moment. Did you buy the latest in a series of bottoms called almost daily by CNBC? How's that working out for you? Keep in mind that every one of those yahoos telling you to buy is getting killed in this market. Just like your 401K.
At this point my next great trade may not be from the short side after all. Maybe it will be getting long more gold. I haven't taken much action but I'm starting to like how the metals are trading here. Also like the action in the mining stocks so I'm watching them closely.
Once I checked the market at about 3:30 it was full on damage control mode. Already small, now my exposure is almost nonexistent. I shoot first and ask questions later. I'm keen to the possibility of a big bounce although my hunch is that we have more downside first. It's one of those extremely rare instances where I would rather just sit on my hands and watch. I'm sure as hell not going to be buying much of anything.
Now today the bulls are getting killed again. Dow down 155 at the moment. Did you buy the latest in a series of bottoms called almost daily by CNBC? How's that working out for you? Keep in mind that every one of those yahoos telling you to buy is getting killed in this market. Just like your 401K.
At this point my next great trade may not be from the short side after all. Maybe it will be getting long more gold. I haven't taken much action but I'm starting to like how the metals are trading here. Also like the action in the mining stocks so I'm watching them closely.
Tuesday, July 8, 2008
Another Yawner
Another day that could best be described as boring. I continue to get smaller. Covered BHP down two and a half and EOG down four. Thank you very much. Also covered a few other shorts and a couple longs. Up a half a percent at the moment. Happy with that.
Frankly, boring is good. I remain net short but unconcerned with the market's strength. I welcome it. I'd much rather sell into strength. Gold made me a bit nervous mid morning and I almost got stopped out of my trading position. Thankfully I hung on as it has bounced again this afternoon. Commodities generally have downside still. Not looking to chase that trade having already taken advantage.
With the "hawkish" ECB signalling neutrality gold has upside. I put the word hawkish in quotations as there is no such thing as a hawkish central bank on the planet today (to my knowledge anyway). And Bernanke is a fucking joke. The Fed could give two shits about inflation. The consensus is that they are done cutting but I disagree. Under no circumstances will they raise and if anything they will cut again.
Frankly, boring is good. I remain net short but unconcerned with the market's strength. I welcome it. I'd much rather sell into strength. Gold made me a bit nervous mid morning and I almost got stopped out of my trading position. Thankfully I hung on as it has bounced again this afternoon. Commodities generally have downside still. Not looking to chase that trade having already taken advantage.
With the "hawkish" ECB signalling neutrality gold has upside. I put the word hawkish in quotations as there is no such thing as a hawkish central bank on the planet today (to my knowledge anyway). And Bernanke is a fucking joke. The Fed could give two shits about inflation. The consensus is that they are done cutting but I disagree. Under no circumstances will they raise and if anything they will cut again.
Monday, July 7, 2008
Whipsaw
Today's market was one giant whipsaw. Up 100+ pts then a couple hundred point drop then another 150 pt rally before selling off another 100 pts into the close. I'm officially nauseous, how 'bout you? I continue to interpret this sort of action as symptomatic of a market under extreme stress.
Same for my account balance. Down big, then up big, then pretty much right back where it started. A waste of my time. There were many opportunities to be taken advantage of today and I did a piss-poor job of capitalizing. Tomorrow is a new day.
Same for my account balance. Down big, then up big, then pretty much right back where it started. A waste of my time. There were many opportunities to be taken advantage of today and I did a piss-poor job of capitalizing. Tomorrow is a new day.
The Iceberg Has Just Been Struck
I could have told you a couple years ago with 100% confidence that this was coming. That is the death of Fannie and Freddie.
Having shorted, with varying levels of success, these names repeatedly over the years to now watch them crater while having no position makes me want to throw myself through a fucking plate glass window. Fuck!
An event of this nature is without question one of my tells on the coming apocalypse. Well, get ready because here it comes. This is going to get extremely ugly in the months ahead ending in a taxpayer bailout the magnitude of which is indescribable.
For Whom the Bell TOLs
Excuse my cheesy title.
Didn't expect today's 100 pt. rally to last. That being said I wasn't really expecting a 200 pt. drop from the highs by lunchtime either. I did add to my short exposure before the drop but I remain somewhat underexposed. So it's a good day so far but not great.
Put a fork in it.
Didn't expect today's 100 pt. rally to last. That being said I wasn't really expecting a 200 pt. drop from the highs by lunchtime either. I did add to my short exposure before the drop but I remain somewhat underexposed. So it's a good day so far but not great.
The freshly initiated short positions in BHP and EOG appear to be working quite nicely and GLD has come roaring back. My hunch was to add to my GLD position but I did not since it's already pretty chunky. This mornings weakness in the metals may have been a buying opportunity but I don't have a lot of conviction either way in the short term.
I did though add to my TOL short. This may have been the break I've been waiting for.
Put a fork in it.
Back at it Again
Hope everyone had a nice holiday. Back to business (at least, in my case, until I go on vacation in a couple weeks).
Glutton for punishment that I am, I'm taking a stab at some commodity related names. Here are two head and shoulders tops I'm watching closely and wading into cautiously (from the short side obviously).
Funny. I had this intense urge to clear out my GLD position (in the trading account) on Thursday afternoon. Needless to say, I managed to rationalize hanging on. What do you know, it's getting creamed this morning.
Market is strong out of the gates today but this feels more like a retest of the broken lows on the S&P as opposed to a sustainable bottom. I'm getting smacked around a bit but remain very conservatively positioned coming out of last week, with lots of dry powder. This strength is welcome. To a point.
Thursday, July 3, 2008
This and That
Covered my ICE short. Just like to take profits. It goes much much lower over time, matter of fact I'd say it has 50 points of downside but my time horizon is days to weeks not weeks to months. Captured a quick 7 plus points (since yesterday), a small gift from Mother Market. OK fine. I will revisit the idea once more should it bounce.
Most traders make the mistake of thinking only about their potential profits. However, I'm looking at risk. Should the market decide to really bounce ICE will be 10 points higher in the blink of an eye.
Today I have no interest in trading stocks. I've been laying on the couch watching Wimbledon instead. If I was interested I'd be selling LRCX. If I was a day trader I'd also have been selling LRCX like crazy @ 36. But I am neither interested, nor a day trader.
Most traders make the mistake of thinking only about their potential profits. However, I'm looking at risk. Should the market decide to really bounce ICE will be 10 points higher in the blink of an eye.
Today I have no interest in trading stocks. I've been laying on the couch watching Wimbledon instead. If I was interested I'd be selling LRCX. If I was a day trader I'd also have been selling LRCX like crazy @ 36. But I am neither interested, nor a day trader.
If At First You Don't Succeed...
...blah blah blah.
Shorted TOL again this morning. I swear it hates me. I short it, it bounces, I cover. Rinse and repeat. Like marriage and McDonalds hamburgers, very unsatisfying.
Anyway, fuck that shit. Eventually it cracks. Mark my word. It will trade in the single digits before next summer.
Does anyone else find it difficult to initiate short sales into a gazillion point drop? Thought so. As for today's action, expect the bulls to put on a brave face buy into the feel good Fourth of July rally.
Shorted TOL again this morning. I swear it hates me. I short it, it bounces, I cover. Rinse and repeat. Like marriage and McDonalds hamburgers, very unsatisfying.
Anyway, fuck that shit. Eventually it cracks. Mark my word. It will trade in the single digits before next summer.
Does anyone else find it difficult to initiate short sales into a gazillion point drop? Thought so. As for today's action, expect the bulls to put on a brave face buy into the feel good Fourth of July rally.
Quick Word of Warning
So I go take a nap and wake up to see the DOW another 80 points lower. That's some bullshit. On the day we traded down 1.5% and I was up 1.5%. OK I guess but somewhat disappointing. I feel like I missed some opportunities today.
Tomorrow is a shortened session which is likely to be quite interesting. Employment report and the ECB announcement on the docket before a long holiday weekend.
The lows on the S&P were penetrated today. A whole bunch of momentum stocks were shellacked including, but not limited to, coal, steel, ag and oil. Allow me to reiterate that we are completely fucked. Period. Don't try to sell me some bullshit about a second half recovery or the Fed is gonna save us. Ain't gonna happen.
It is not too late to sell. If you've been in denial this whole time you better start to take action ASAP. Raise cash, get out of debt and start living within your means. What happens if you get fired from your job? Are you prepared, just in case?
The time will come where there will be nowhere to hide. The pain is not even close to being done and I'd argue it's just getting started. This entire country is in for one big wake up call. Or should I say margin call?
Tomorrow is a shortened session which is likely to be quite interesting. Employment report and the ECB announcement on the docket before a long holiday weekend.
The lows on the S&P were penetrated today. A whole bunch of momentum stocks were shellacked including, but not limited to, coal, steel, ag and oil. Allow me to reiterate that we are completely fucked. Period. Don't try to sell me some bullshit about a second half recovery or the Fed is gonna save us. Ain't gonna happen.
It is not too late to sell. If you've been in denial this whole time you better start to take action ASAP. Raise cash, get out of debt and start living within your means. What happens if you get fired from your job? Are you prepared, just in case?
The time will come where there will be nowhere to hide. The pain is not even close to being done and I'd argue it's just getting started. This entire country is in for one big wake up call. Or should I say margin call?
Wednesday, July 2, 2008
Just Chillin'
Provided the market hangs in there for a couple more days I'll probably just sit on my hands until after the long holiday weekend. Must say it's nice to not be tethered to the market today. I have so little capital at risk that I've just been goofing off all morning. For a change I'm not sweating every little squiggly line up and down.
So I'll just chill out and watch in delight as the mo-mo crowd gets a swift kick to the balls via cratering coal and steel stocks. Ouch. That shit's gotta hurt.
Maybe I'll go for a jog, take a dip in the pool and then a nap. Napping is one discipline for which I have nearly unmatched aptitude. I'm a talented fellow indeed.
In the past I've had a hard time stepping back from the market, feeling as if I had to play every move. As I gain experience though I realize that all of my greatest gains are AHEAD of me. Besides it's best to step back some on the heels of a ridiculously profitable run.
So I'll just chill out and watch in delight as the mo-mo crowd gets a swift kick to the balls via cratering coal and steel stocks. Ouch. That shit's gotta hurt.
Maybe I'll go for a jog, take a dip in the pool and then a nap. Napping is one discipline for which I have nearly unmatched aptitude. I'm a talented fellow indeed.
In the past I've had a hard time stepping back from the market, feeling as if I had to play every move. As I gain experience though I realize that all of my greatest gains are AHEAD of me. Besides it's best to step back some on the heels of a ridiculously profitable run.
Let's Review
At the end of April I suggested a few restaurant stocks to be sold. Let's review.
BOBE was trading @ $27. It's now around $28 but in the interim traded as high as $34. Loss!
DIN (formerly known as I-HoP) was trading @ $48. Now $36. Big Win!
Finally we have my old friend CBRL. Told you to sell @ $34. Now $22. They just warned the other day. Big Win.
So I was 2 and 1. In the winners I was right to the tune of 12 points each. My thesis that higher oil prices would hit these roadside diners was correct I'd say.
Class dismissed.
The Plan For Today
Sit and watch.
Hopefully the market can trade higher (although I remain somewhat skeptical). My exposure is very limited having taken profits yesterday. Made myself some walking around money this morning selling the SII purchased at yesterday's close up $2.50 first thing.
Hopefully the market can trade higher (although I remain somewhat skeptical). My exposure is very limited having taken profits yesterday. Made myself some walking around money this morning selling the SII purchased at yesterday's close up $2.50 first thing.
Tuesday, July 1, 2008
A Sustained Bounce?
Repeat after me: highly unlikely.
I continue to hope for a bounce in order to alleviate the oversold condition. I'd settle for a two or three day rally. That would be super.
I continue to hope for a bounce in order to alleviate the oversold condition. I'd settle for a two or three day rally. That would be super.
This Market is Nuts
If you count the lower open this morning we have had four swings in excess of 100 DOW points just today. Sheesh. Can you say whiplash? This shit's nuts. Great for daytraders but otherwise nauseating.
Maybe this is setting up for a bounce but I feel generally like these broad, seemingly schizophrenic gyrations back and forth are representative of a market under extreme pressure. A bounce higher would be great. I have a lot of dry powder and would love to reposition at higher prices. Any sustained rally would be a gift to the bears and another opportunity to sell. Just keep in mind the chances of an outright crash are currently elevated (yet remain as always very low).
Maybe this is setting up for a bounce but I feel generally like these broad, seemingly schizophrenic gyrations back and forth are representative of a market under extreme pressure. A bounce higher would be great. I have a lot of dry powder and would love to reposition at higher prices. Any sustained rally would be a gift to the bears and another opportunity to sell. Just keep in mind the chances of an outright crash are currently elevated (yet remain as always very low).
I'm Just Sayin'
You know, when it comes to your money, it's not a very good idea to listen to some third tier blogger on the internets. Feel free to disregard everything I say (I would expect nothing less)...
BUT...you better own some gold.
Covered...
...the last of my very chunky, very profitable IWM short position. Hit my target, which was a four point move from 72 to 68. The market gods are smiling on me and I'm starting to feel rich again. Must be about time for a bounce.
New Highs, New Lows
Lows for the market. Highs for myself.
Only real complaint I have is getting shaken out of my RDC long. I think it still probably goes higher, but not today. Problem is the position was chunky and my number one priority is to control risk regardless of my personal affection for any one position. So rather than just sit there getting rolled on I will live to fight another day. Not like I can't buy it back.
Energy names still get the benefit of the doubt as far as I'm concerned but at some point they will become a source of funds for moronic money managers looking to raise cash any way possible. Can you imagine if the the only place to hide becomes a bloodbath? That shit will be ug-ly. Just something to think about. Better hide the kitchen knives just in case.
Only real complaint I have is getting shaken out of my RDC long. I think it still probably goes higher, but not today. Problem is the position was chunky and my number one priority is to control risk regardless of my personal affection for any one position. So rather than just sit there getting rolled on I will live to fight another day. Not like I can't buy it back.
Energy names still get the benefit of the doubt as far as I'm concerned but at some point they will become a source of funds for moronic money managers looking to raise cash any way possible. Can you imagine if the the only place to hide becomes a bloodbath? That shit will be ug-ly. Just something to think about. Better hide the kitchen knives just in case.
Also...
Sold my SRS this morning north of $108. I think it goes higher, atleast $120-ish in the not too distant future but I got pretty close to my short term target. Made nine points in a week and a half so I'm cool with that. What can I say, I love to take profits. Looks pretty smart to have done so thus far. A big profit on a leveraged bet like that can disappear very quickly.
I will wait and if given the opportunity re-load at a lower level.
I will wait and if given the opportunity re-load at a lower level.
New Position
I have about 30 stocks on my breakdown list this morning. Facing severe weakness at the opening bell has me proceeding cautiously as my rules dictate to never chase a trade. However I did initiate a fresh position first thing. Here's hoping TM is about to crack. If it trades much below current levels (and long term support) it could have a lot of downside. As always I have a tight stop to control my risk and if I'm wrong I'm gone.
Monday, June 30, 2008
Close the Book on the First Half of 2008
Despite a complete lack of focus at times I've made it through the first half unscathed. I suffered one of my periodic draw downs in March-April but have now vaulted back to my personal highs with a ridiculously profitable June.
I'm just now hitting my stride and have a multitude of wins planned for the second half. Despite a merely average performance in the first half I am paying my bills and keeping the lights on. Those of you who continue to doubt me can go fuck yourselves.
As the market continues to hit new lows in the second half I will be hitting new highs. Count on it.
UPDATE: On the basis of gross profit June 2008 has been the best month I've ever had. I will dominate in the second half.
I'm just now hitting my stride and have a multitude of wins planned for the second half. Despite a merely average performance in the first half I am paying my bills and keeping the lights on. Those of you who continue to doubt me can go fuck yourselves.
As the market continues to hit new lows in the second half I will be hitting new highs. Count on it.
UPDATE: On the basis of gross profit June 2008 has been the best month I've ever had. I will dominate in the second half.
Friday, June 27, 2008
Got Me A Jump On Next Week
That's how I roll.
Added to an existing long position in RDC. Monday is the final day of the second quarter and I anticipate more upside in energy names. Regardless, the chart is just a thing of beauty. Who knows whether or not the breakout comes next week, but it's just a matter of time.
Added to an existing long position in RDC. Monday is the final day of the second quarter and I anticipate more upside in energy names. Regardless, the chart is just a thing of beauty. Who knows whether or not the breakout comes next week, but it's just a matter of time.
Trouble Ahead, Trouble Behind
As the stock and bond markets join the housing market and the economy in a generational death spiral, severe pain will ensue. Retirees and those on fixed incomes are fucked as inflation continues to rage and the government continues to understate all measures of said inflation. Company pension plans and your 401K are going to be much less valuable when the tide goes out.
Just when the pain becomes unbearable we will bounce. Things might not be so bad. Sell that bounce because we are nowhere near a bottom. This all has the potential to be very bad and it's not too late to protect yourself. Sell something and watch it go down. We have not yet seen fear but the fear will come. Oh yes, fear will come.
By then I'll be trading from a remote location high in the mountains. I'll have a food plot and shit. Off the grid with potable water. I'll corner the uranium market just for fun. Get a couple hundred head of cattle and some tricked out grain silos. My strategic petroleum reserve will be stacked thereby granting my private army military dominance.
I hope you have a plan amigo.
Just when the pain becomes unbearable we will bounce. Things might not be so bad. Sell that bounce because we are nowhere near a bottom. This all has the potential to be very bad and it's not too late to protect yourself. Sell something and watch it go down. We have not yet seen fear but the fear will come. Oh yes, fear will come.
By then I'll be trading from a remote location high in the mountains. I'll have a food plot and shit. Off the grid with potable water. I'll corner the uranium market just for fun. Get a couple hundred head of cattle and some tricked out grain silos. My strategic petroleum reserve will be stacked thereby granting my private army military dominance.
I hope you have a plan amigo.
Thursday, June 26, 2008
Closing Bell
Dow down 358 points. Time to count my coin. Shit, I got paid like a CEO today. I'm up about 15% this MONTH.
I will now redirect my attention to the important matter of the NBA Draft. It looks as though my team, the Chicago Bulls, will be taking this chump-ass point guard Derrick Rose. I, for one, am looking forward to trading Kirk Hinrich. Two birds with one stone. It's a good day.
Time to go pre-game. I know it was a tough day, try to keep yourself from jumping out your office window.
I will now redirect my attention to the important matter of the NBA Draft. It looks as though my team, the Chicago Bulls, will be taking this chump-ass point guard Derrick Rose. I, for one, am looking forward to trading Kirk Hinrich. Two birds with one stone. It's a good day.
Time to go pre-game. I know it was a tough day, try to keep yourself from jumping out your office window.
What Did I Say?
I believe it was something like..."The market remains uncomfortably close to the edge of a cliff. Sooner or later it goes over."
Apparently it was "sooner". The absolute panic low set in January on the DOW has been convincingly violated. Obviously dip-buying is no longer a viable strategy. Instead you want to sell rallies.
I am less than optimally positioned for this move having gotten smaller ahead of the Fed. Although I did put on a big fat IWM short position yesterday afternoon. I added some SRS this morning in addition to a few shorts. I'm not getting too aggressive in chasing anything here. We are in a bear market and that's not going to change anytime soon. There will be plenty of time to take advantage of the incredible pain that lies directly ahead.
From the long side I see very little to get excited about. The metals are the exception. Gold and silver are extremely close to breaking out and de-balling the shorts. I am cautiously adding more GLD in anticipation of the breakout and when it happens I'll be buying with both hands.
Apparently it was "sooner". The absolute panic low set in January on the DOW has been convincingly violated. Obviously dip-buying is no longer a viable strategy. Instead you want to sell rallies.
I am less than optimally positioned for this move having gotten smaller ahead of the Fed. Although I did put on a big fat IWM short position yesterday afternoon. I added some SRS this morning in addition to a few shorts. I'm not getting too aggressive in chasing anything here. We are in a bear market and that's not going to change anytime soon. There will be plenty of time to take advantage of the incredible pain that lies directly ahead.
From the long side I see very little to get excited about. The metals are the exception. Gold and silver are extremely close to breaking out and de-balling the shorts. I am cautiously adding more GLD in anticipation of the breakout and when it happens I'll be buying with both hands.
Wednesday, June 25, 2008
More Bailouts and Handouts
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20080624/D91GO9J80.html
"A massive foreclosure rescue bill cleared a key Senate test Tuesday by an overwhelming margin, with Democrats and Republicans both eager to claim election-year credit for helping hard-pressed homeowners.
The mortgage aid plan would let the Federal Housing Administration back $300 billion in new, cheaper home loans for an estimated 400,000 distressed borrowers who otherwise would be considered too financially risky to qualify for government-insured, fixed-rate loans."
"A massive foreclosure rescue bill cleared a key Senate test Tuesday by an overwhelming margin, with Democrats and Republicans both eager to claim election-year credit for helping hard-pressed homeowners.
The mortgage aid plan would let the Federal Housing Administration back $300 billion in new, cheaper home loans for an estimated 400,000 distressed borrowers who otherwise would be considered too financially risky to qualify for government-insured, fixed-rate loans."
Tuesday, June 24, 2008
Nice Day For A Rally
The Fed is in session. Bears beware.
We have been awfully close to the lows too and it's end of the quarter. Just something to think about.
I have taken down a lot of risk, into this morning's weakness, and built a war chest of epic proportions. Give me higher prices!
We shall see. The market remains uncomfortably close to the edge of a cliff. Sooner or later it goes over.
We have been awfully close to the lows too and it's end of the quarter. Just something to think about.
I have taken down a lot of risk, into this morning's weakness, and built a war chest of epic proportions. Give me higher prices!
We shall see. The market remains uncomfortably close to the edge of a cliff. Sooner or later it goes over.
Just Nibbling, For Now
The next leg up in the metals is so close I can taste it. Haven't taken any significant action thus far but I'm nibbling- adding a bit here and a touch there in the trading account. As for my longer term accounts I'm an aggressive buyer.
Just For the Record
In regards to all of the aforementioned problems that we currently face allow me to just say:
I CALLED IT.
Disclaimer: In "real life" I am not an outwardly arrogant person but for the purposes of this blog...
I CALLED IT.
Disclaimer: In "real life" I am not an outwardly arrogant person but for the purposes of this blog...
Better Late...
Here we are again: headed straight down the toilet. Makes me wonder what the Fed has up it's sleeve to bail us out this time. Tomorrow they announce their next move. They should absolutely be raising rates to fight inflation, if not tomorrow then going forward into the remainder of the year. The market seems to think that's a likely possibility but I would put the chances somewhere around 0%. If there is one thing I know, it's that the Fed could give a shit about inflation. Period. Bailing out the banks, for instance, is a much higher priority.
The Associated Press actually had a headline over the weekend that read "Everything Seemingly Spinning Out of Control". Isn't that the truth. We have natural disasters, raging inflation, two seemingly endless wars, a housing crash, a stock market that is circling the bowl and an oil crisis. That's the tip of the iceberg. Don't forget global warming. It's uncanny that at the very moment in our nation's history, and world history for that matter, that we need real forward-looking leadership we have the worst presidential leadership in my lifetime (maybe ever). To be fair it's not just Bush and Co. but the entire structure that is rotten (both parties share responsibility). Not only are we not working towards solutions to any of these problems but we are working to exacerbate them.
I am legitimately frightened for my family going forward. In the meantime I am raping and pillaging this market. Up 10%+ for the month of June after poor performances in both March and April. The second half of last year represented the best six months of my trading career and I seek to replicate it this year.
Not much has been posted here of late. Hopefully I can get back in the groove. Things are only going to get more interesting.
The Associated Press actually had a headline over the weekend that read "Everything Seemingly Spinning Out of Control". Isn't that the truth. We have natural disasters, raging inflation, two seemingly endless wars, a housing crash, a stock market that is circling the bowl and an oil crisis. That's the tip of the iceberg. Don't forget global warming. It's uncanny that at the very moment in our nation's history, and world history for that matter, that we need real forward-looking leadership we have the worst presidential leadership in my lifetime (maybe ever). To be fair it's not just Bush and Co. but the entire structure that is rotten (both parties share responsibility). Not only are we not working towards solutions to any of these problems but we are working to exacerbate them.
I am legitimately frightened for my family going forward. In the meantime I am raping and pillaging this market. Up 10%+ for the month of June after poor performances in both March and April. The second half of last year represented the best six months of my trading career and I seek to replicate it this year.
Not much has been posted here of late. Hopefully I can get back in the groove. Things are only going to get more interesting.
Saturday, June 7, 2008
Wednesday, June 4, 2008
Friday, May 9, 2008
Dow 13K, S&P 1400...
...Launching Pad or Wall of Resistance?
I could give you the case for both though I've been expecting the latter. From a technical perspective it looks like: breakout, retrace and possibly set to move higher. However from a fundamental perspective I maintain that we are more fucked as ever.
Interesting divergences developing here. There are many good trades to be had both long and short. Financials and retailers especially are starting to look weak. From the long side anything commodity related is en fuego and there are many attractive breakouts to be had.
For the time being I'm more or less market neutral (slightly long). Looking to play both sides and not stick my neck out too far. I would strongly advise caution here. Playing the commodity explosion from the long side yet increasing position sizes on some of my favorite shorts.
Just a quick note on gold. The yellow metal has drawn itself a head and shoulders top which may or may not result in lower prices. I've been nibbling. Not as much on gold itself but the miners are looking firm and silver is very attractive around these levels. I can tell you this, if gold can dig in here and remain firm I will be a buyer with both hands. The case for owning metals has never been stronger.
I could give you the case for both though I've been expecting the latter. From a technical perspective it looks like: breakout, retrace and possibly set to move higher. However from a fundamental perspective I maintain that we are more fucked as ever.
Interesting divergences developing here. There are many good trades to be had both long and short. Financials and retailers especially are starting to look weak. From the long side anything commodity related is en fuego and there are many attractive breakouts to be had.
For the time being I'm more or less market neutral (slightly long). Looking to play both sides and not stick my neck out too far. I would strongly advise caution here. Playing the commodity explosion from the long side yet increasing position sizes on some of my favorite shorts.
Just a quick note on gold. The yellow metal has drawn itself a head and shoulders top which may or may not result in lower prices. I've been nibbling. Not as much on gold itself but the miners are looking firm and silver is very attractive around these levels. I can tell you this, if gold can dig in here and remain firm I will be a buyer with both hands. The case for owning metals has never been stronger.
Thursday, May 1, 2008
Trigger Finger Getting Itchy
With the Fed out of the way I'm feeling slightly more bold. Swallowing this latest quarter point cut gave the market some indigestion yesterday afternoon. We gave back a triple digit gain. This is just the sort of action I was looking for. My upside target has been 13K on the DOW and we peaked at 13010.
The bears are not out of the woods yet. We have the employment report on Friday. I won't be looking to get real aggressive ahead of that.
The bears are not out of the woods yet. We have the employment report on Friday. I won't be looking to get real aggressive ahead of that.
Tuesday, April 29, 2008
Waiting for the Fed
Boring.
Portfolio remains market neutral with a slight long side bias seeing as few shorts have been working.
Not much to do before Wednesday's announcement. Sitting on my hands. There are a handful of breakouts in play but it's not time to get all excited, about anything.
Portfolio remains market neutral with a slight long side bias seeing as few shorts have been working.
Not much to do before Wednesday's announcement. Sitting on my hands. There are a handful of breakouts in play but it's not time to get all excited, about anything.
Wednesday, April 23, 2008
High Gas Prices = Less Disposable Income
Can anyone tell me who the hell eats at Bob Evans? Old people after Sunday services? I've often wondered how they stay in business when I never see any cars in their parking lot.As for Cracker Barrel and I-Hop, they are roadside eateries. Think summer trip. Something tells me that after dad stops and fills up the minivan at $3.50+/gallon he's not going to want to stop again.
I admit to having a special affection for Cracker Barrel. Think sour dough french toast. That being said, I bet all three of these stocks are going to trade much lower. Haven't taken any action in these names yet as I remain cautious in initiating new short sales but I will be looking for an opportunity in the near future.
Monday, April 21, 2008
Back in the Saddle
Today was a nice uneventful day. I put a lot of money to work. Bought a few breakouts and initiated some modestly-sized shorts in financials. I remain net long but I'm really pretty balanced. Despite my success when the market has recently been crushed I prefer to see a more balanced market where one can play both sides.
Bulls remain in control, for now. Outright delusion is widespread amongst market participants. Seems unlikely to last very long. At some point soon the financials will lead us lower again. Also sniffing for short side opportunities in commercial real estate as those stocks have seen big runs based on the fairy tale that everything is going to be just fine. I continue to believe otherwise.
Bulls remain in control, for now. Outright delusion is widespread amongst market participants. Seems unlikely to last very long. At some point soon the financials will lead us lower again. Also sniffing for short side opportunities in commercial real estate as those stocks have seen big runs based on the fairy tale that everything is going to be just fine. I continue to believe otherwise.
Saturday, April 19, 2008
Triumphant Return
Spent all week in the Georgia mountains hiking and breathing clean air for a change. The people there are just too nice. Now that I'm back in Florida where everyone is an asshole I feel normal again in hating everyone I meet.
I return somewhat richer than when I left. Click-here to review my call on NFX. Now the results:
I return somewhat richer than when I left. Click-here to review my call on NFX. Now the results:
That's almost 14% this week alone. Your welcome. Now you too can afford to go on vacation.
Enough bravado. Perched in my mountain hideaway I paid very little (relatively speaking) attention to the markets. Now that I'm back and feeling refreshed I'll be getting down to business. Obviously the bulls are in charge and the market has broken out to the upside. I'd not be surprised to see 13K on the DOW in short order. I'll give the bulls a head start before I begin hunting them down and slaughtering them again.
Friday, April 11, 2008
Vacation
I'll be spending the next week plotting the inevitable downfall of our economy and markets from my mountain retreat.
Tuesday, April 8, 2008
I Love Me Some Volcker
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=akNtk9A7NN8I&refer=home
``What appears to be in substance a direct transfer of mortgage and mortgage-backed securities of questionable pedigree from an investment bank to the Federal Reserve seems to test the time-honored central bank mantra in time of crisis: lend freely at high rates against good collateral; test it to the point of no return,'' he said.
Volcker said the modern financial system has ``failed the test'' of the marketplace. When asked whether he predicts a ``dollar crisis,'' he said, ``you don't have to predict it, you're in it.''
``What appears to be in substance a direct transfer of mortgage and mortgage-backed securities of questionable pedigree from an investment bank to the Federal Reserve seems to test the time-honored central bank mantra in time of crisis: lend freely at high rates against good collateral; test it to the point of no return,'' he said.
Volcker said the modern financial system has ``failed the test'' of the marketplace. When asked whether he predicts a ``dollar crisis,'' he said, ``you don't have to predict it, you're in it.''
Monday, April 7, 2008
Sunday, April 6, 2008
Welcome to the New and Improved Socialist America
I have a few things to get off my chest regarding the bailout of Bear Stearns.
The Fed chose to backstop the sale of Bear with 29 billion dollars of taxpayer money without which the transaction would never have taken place. The justification for doing so, according to Bernanke, is that had Bear been allowed to fail it would have triggered financial armageddon. There is probably some truth in that explanation but the end in this case certainly does not justify the means.
The action Bernanke and Paulson took is definitely unconstitutional and probably illegal. So you'd figure that when they appear before Congress to answer questions regarding this unprecedented transaction that perhaps our representatives might have some pointed questions. You'd figure wrong. The congressional hearings were a circle jerk. I heard more praise of the bailout then criticism. It saved the market from going down so it had to be done. Coincidentally, almost every one of the questioners have taken large campaign contributions from Wall Street.
I want to vomit. I had to turn the TV off. You mean to tell me that after having acted prudently throughout the housing bubble (20% down on a house I could afford, fixed mortgage, sold at the top) that now I have to help bailout those that acted imprudently? Are you fucking kidding me? I could have bought three or four houses, taken out ARMs with zero down and generally just speculated recklessly like many of those around me, but no, I did not. Now when the shit hits the fan I should have to bail out the risk takers with my tax dollars?
We now have, in this country, privatized profit and socialized risk.
The thing with Bear is that they fucked up and should have to face the consequences just like the individuals who speculated and got it wrong. But no, these guys award themselves billions in bonuses and now expect to be bailed out. Filing bankruptcy would have insured the return of those bonuses that were looted from the company but thanks to our Fed and Treasury there are no consequences for failure.
Did you not see the CEO of Bear on CNBS just days before they blew up? According to him everything was just fine, no cause for alarm. Three days later they are on the verge of bankruptcy? Where are the handcuffs? What am I missing? You see it's illegal for executives to make false statements to the market. Where are the cops?
Furthermore this whole scam is an exercise in obfuscation. Even though the taxpayer is on the hook for the losses we are not allowed to see just what Bear has on the books. The whole idea is to avoid taking realistic marks on the toxic waste that is everywhere.
So without objection from Congress we have now institutionalized the taxpayer bailout of any financial concern dubbed too big to fail. There will be many more of them and I suppose the Fed is going to take all of their bad paper onto it's balance sheet? We are now the United States of Subprime. The Fed keeps going at this rate and I'm going to have to turn my walk-in closet into a vault to hold all the gold I'm going to have to buy as protection against the complete debasement of our currency, our values and our society in general.
This bailout was a watershed moment. We have entered a new era in which anything goes. I could not possibly be more ashamed of my country.
The Fed chose to backstop the sale of Bear with 29 billion dollars of taxpayer money without which the transaction would never have taken place. The justification for doing so, according to Bernanke, is that had Bear been allowed to fail it would have triggered financial armageddon. There is probably some truth in that explanation but the end in this case certainly does not justify the means.
The action Bernanke and Paulson took is definitely unconstitutional and probably illegal. So you'd figure that when they appear before Congress to answer questions regarding this unprecedented transaction that perhaps our representatives might have some pointed questions. You'd figure wrong. The congressional hearings were a circle jerk. I heard more praise of the bailout then criticism. It saved the market from going down so it had to be done. Coincidentally, almost every one of the questioners have taken large campaign contributions from Wall Street.
I want to vomit. I had to turn the TV off. You mean to tell me that after having acted prudently throughout the housing bubble (20% down on a house I could afford, fixed mortgage, sold at the top) that now I have to help bailout those that acted imprudently? Are you fucking kidding me? I could have bought three or four houses, taken out ARMs with zero down and generally just speculated recklessly like many of those around me, but no, I did not. Now when the shit hits the fan I should have to bail out the risk takers with my tax dollars?
We now have, in this country, privatized profit and socialized risk.
The thing with Bear is that they fucked up and should have to face the consequences just like the individuals who speculated and got it wrong. But no, these guys award themselves billions in bonuses and now expect to be bailed out. Filing bankruptcy would have insured the return of those bonuses that were looted from the company but thanks to our Fed and Treasury there are no consequences for failure.
Did you not see the CEO of Bear on CNBS just days before they blew up? According to him everything was just fine, no cause for alarm. Three days later they are on the verge of bankruptcy? Where are the handcuffs? What am I missing? You see it's illegal for executives to make false statements to the market. Where are the cops?
Furthermore this whole scam is an exercise in obfuscation. Even though the taxpayer is on the hook for the losses we are not allowed to see just what Bear has on the books. The whole idea is to avoid taking realistic marks on the toxic waste that is everywhere.
So without objection from Congress we have now institutionalized the taxpayer bailout of any financial concern dubbed too big to fail. There will be many more of them and I suppose the Fed is going to take all of their bad paper onto it's balance sheet? We are now the United States of Subprime. The Fed keeps going at this rate and I'm going to have to turn my walk-in closet into a vault to hold all the gold I'm going to have to buy as protection against the complete debasement of our currency, our values and our society in general.
This bailout was a watershed moment. We have entered a new era in which anything goes. I could not possibly be more ashamed of my country.
Wednesday, April 2, 2008
Drunken Bulls Run Amok
You know, I expected another rally but 391 DOW pts? Really? The S&P and Nasdaq were both up better than 3.5%. Jeez. Shit's insane.
So it appears to be a double bottom on the indexes. The bullish contingent is all lathered up and breathing heavy. It's the bottom! I say maybe for now. The DOW needs at least another hundred points for confirmation of a true double bottom.
We should expect more of these violent whipsaws going forward. No question, bear markets are difficult to trade. I feel confident though that we have not seen the lows for the year.
As for my personal trading, it's fair to say it's been bumpy this year. Yesterday I was under attack again but worked early in the day to limit exposure to the short side. I consider yesterday a success insofar as it could have been much worse than it was. I just need to stay in the game. I banked a lot of coin off of the declines we've seen thus far and I can envision a much greater opportunity not too far down the road.
So it appears to be a double bottom on the indexes. The bullish contingent is all lathered up and breathing heavy. It's the bottom! I say maybe for now. The DOW needs at least another hundred points for confirmation of a true double bottom.
We should expect more of these violent whipsaws going forward. No question, bear markets are difficult to trade. I feel confident though that we have not seen the lows for the year.
As for my personal trading, it's fair to say it's been bumpy this year. Yesterday I was under attack again but worked early in the day to limit exposure to the short side. I consider yesterday a success insofar as it could have been much worse than it was. I just need to stay in the game. I banked a lot of coin off of the declines we've seen thus far and I can envision a much greater opportunity not too far down the road.
Monday, March 31, 2008
Here We Go Again
Today is the last day of March. I'll be glad when it ends. I spent the greater part of March getting whipsawed via insane volatility. As usual it was not my powers of prediction that failed me so much as my trading ability or lack thereof. My powers of prediction are just fine thank you and as a result I will enter April with confidence.
Looking at the futures early this morning it looks like a flat open which is nice considering the headlines over the weekend. The Fed apparently will be granted new powers to regulate, pending congressional approval. Makes me want to vomit. The Fed needs to be stripped of it's power not given more. To me this news smells like a regulation shell game. There is absolutely no genuine intention by this administration to regulate anything especially financial concerns.
The whole idea to give the Fed more power reeks of an Orwellian air and scares the shit out of me. We are well on our way to becoming the Socialist States of America.
As for the market, I still think we consolidate some more before ultimately heading lower. Commodities are correcting here and I intend to wait before viewing it as a buying opportunity. Once I see some stability I will be a buyer of gold and agricultural commodities. Somewhat agnostic on oil though- the supply/demand picture is favorable but I expect demand destruction as a result of the recession.
Keeping an eye on technology as I think the sector will offer some nice shorting opportunities in the near future. The idea that investors can hide out in technology names as we enter a recession is pure fallacy.
Looking at the futures early this morning it looks like a flat open which is nice considering the headlines over the weekend. The Fed apparently will be granted new powers to regulate, pending congressional approval. Makes me want to vomit. The Fed needs to be stripped of it's power not given more. To me this news smells like a regulation shell game. There is absolutely no genuine intention by this administration to regulate anything especially financial concerns.
The whole idea to give the Fed more power reeks of an Orwellian air and scares the shit out of me. We are well on our way to becoming the Socialist States of America.
As for the market, I still think we consolidate some more before ultimately heading lower. Commodities are correcting here and I intend to wait before viewing it as a buying opportunity. Once I see some stability I will be a buyer of gold and agricultural commodities. Somewhat agnostic on oil though- the supply/demand picture is favorable but I expect demand destruction as a result of the recession.
Keeping an eye on technology as I think the sector will offer some nice shorting opportunities in the near future. The idea that investors can hide out in technology names as we enter a recession is pure fallacy.
Friday, March 28, 2008
Head and Shoulders, Part Two
This is 15, I think, head and shoulders patterns posted this week. They are in various stages of completion. EWC in particular is very incomplete. The idea is to test the efficacy of the pattern itself so I provided a number of different examples in a real time setting. (One my wonder why there are so many head and shoulders patterns at this moment in time...) The pattern itself should not be traded before completion and you should expect several of these examples to fail altogether (going higher not lower). I view these patterns as major trend changes. Price target is 20% below the neckline.
I will be trading a number of these names and we'll check back in with them down the road. These charts posted are all weekly graphs and will take some time to complete.
Thursday, March 27, 2008
What's Up Now, HUH!?
Yesterday afternoon I went through a list of probably 25 potential trades. I added to a couple existing short positions but only intiated one new position. I shorted HURN @ $58.70. Missed the open this morning but as soon as I walked in the door I covered @ $40.63. That's 30% overnight. What a gift.
Wednesday, March 26, 2008
Hump Day
Seems like the more we rally the more the volume drys up. Hmm. It's a open secret that portfolio managers window dress and paint the tape at month-end and especially quarter-end. Can the buyers sustain the averages for a few more days?
The default position still works despite bumps in the road. Long precious metals, short financials and consumer services. Own metals as long as Bernanke is around. Period. That bearded skank bitch-whore is making this shit up as he goes. He's Greenspan 2.0. As I've said repeatedly YOU MUST have an insurance-sized position in precious metals at all times. It's a hedge. Just own it, just in case.
Financials are starting to look ripe again although it's somewhat demoralizing that we no longer allow institutions to fail. You have to clear the dead wood, not prop it up. Really, shorting anything here is difficult simply due to all the bailouts. As a short you go to sleep (or try) every night knowing tomorrow could bring the next bailout. There will be big money made on the short side but it's tricky as hell.
The default position still works despite bumps in the road. Long precious metals, short financials and consumer services. Own metals as long as Bernanke is around. Period. That bearded skank bitch-whore is making this shit up as he goes. He's Greenspan 2.0. As I've said repeatedly YOU MUST have an insurance-sized position in precious metals at all times. It's a hedge. Just own it, just in case.
Financials are starting to look ripe again although it's somewhat demoralizing that we no longer allow institutions to fail. You have to clear the dead wood, not prop it up. Really, shorting anything here is difficult simply due to all the bailouts. As a short you go to sleep (or try) every night knowing tomorrow could bring the next bailout. There will be big money made on the short side but it's tricky as hell.
Tuesday, March 25, 2008
Waiting
Market went nuts to the upside again yesterday. I limited my short exposure early and saved myself a lot of pain. Then I took a nap and went kayaking.
For now, market participants are back to believing in Goldilocks and the Easter bunny. As to how long such fantasies prevail, it's hard to say. On one hand we have retail and housing stocks breaking out. Financials have stopped falling, for now. On the other hand I see a lot of juicy short set-ups. Lots of head and shoulders tops. The bear is not over.
I still think our problems are too big to bail. Is the Fed is going to monetize trillions of dollars of bad paper?
For now, market participants are back to believing in Goldilocks and the Easter bunny. As to how long such fantasies prevail, it's hard to say. On one hand we have retail and housing stocks breaking out. Financials have stopped falling, for now. On the other hand I see a lot of juicy short set-ups. Lots of head and shoulders tops. The bear is not over.
I still think our problems are too big to bail. Is the Fed is going to monetize trillions of dollars of bad paper?
Monday, March 24, 2008
Rally Sustainable It Seems
Sifting through the entirety of my watchlist this weekend gives me the impression that this current rally has legs. It would have served me better to have come to that conclusion sooner as my bearish bias worked against me last week. Such is life. Retail in particular looks set for a potentially substantive bounce. My top market tell, the financials, have also stopped falling.
Sometimes it's hard to admit your wrong. It's taken me longer than it should to admit I'm now swimming against the tide. Having now acknowledged my poor positioning I will act decisively to preserve capital. Live to fight another day. It's important to keep in mind that my best trades are ahead of me and the number one priority is to stay in the game.
Having said all that I'm not really looking to get long. More than likely I will scale back and wait. This bear market is not going to end anytime soon.
Sometimes it's hard to admit your wrong. It's taken me longer than it should to admit I'm now swimming against the tide. Having now acknowledged my poor positioning I will act decisively to preserve capital. Live to fight another day. It's important to keep in mind that my best trades are ahead of me and the number one priority is to stay in the game.
Having said all that I'm not really looking to get long. More than likely I will scale back and wait. This bear market is not going to end anytime soon.
Wednesday, March 19, 2008
Amen Jim
Here is an absolute must see. Jim Rogers on CNBC World. Please enjoy.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/23588079
http://www.cnbc.com/id/23588079
De-Balled
Coming into yesterday's Fed day celebration net short was a very effective strategy for losing copious amounts of capital. I sensed as much ahead of time but decided to honor my stops rather than immediately running for cover. To be honest I don't think I've ever been so unemotional while losing such large sums of money. There's my silver lining insofar as I consider it to be an important signpost in my evolution as a trader.
Only a few of my stops have been hit. I expected a bounce. Maybe not 420 pts in one day but I'm not surprised that I have to play some defense. That's fine. Ultimately the longer the bulls remain in denial about the magnitude of the problems we face the better entry points I'll get. I have plenty of dry powder to put to work at higher prices if need be.
Only a few of my stops have been hit. I expected a bounce. Maybe not 420 pts in one day but I'm not surprised that I have to play some defense. That's fine. Ultimately the longer the bulls remain in denial about the magnitude of the problems we face the better entry points I'll get. I have plenty of dry powder to put to work at higher prices if need be.
Tuesday, March 18, 2008
Party Time
Futures up strong this morning. Fed announces latest cut at 2:15PM/EST. Time for a party. Our financial companies are technically insolvent but Ben's gonna cut so fuck it let's buy. All the pundits are calling a bottom already. Based on a test of the lows this week I can see the case for that I'm just not buying it.
Coming in ahead of the Fed net short my neck is placed firmly on the chopping block. Trading involves risk. I wish they'd just cut the FFT to zero so we could move beyond this fallacy that the Fed is going to save us.
Coming in ahead of the Fed net short my neck is placed firmly on the chopping block. Trading involves risk. I wish they'd just cut the FFT to zero so we could move beyond this fallacy that the Fed is going to save us.
Monday, March 17, 2008
Sell the Rally
So we opened down hard and traded as low as 11,750. Then snapped back to 12K (green on the day). That's 250 pts in an hour and a half. Now we're slowly working our way back down.
I used the big bounce to get even more net short. Now positioned perhaps the most aggressively net short I've ever been. We may bounce around here some more, in fact I'd expect it which is why I still have some dry powder, but I don't think there is anyway these lows hold.
I used the big bounce to get even more net short. Now positioned perhaps the most aggressively net short I've ever been. We may bounce around here some more, in fact I'd expect it which is why I still have some dry powder, but I don't think there is anyway these lows hold.
Just A Couple Thoughts
1. Slashing rates will do nothing to save us. Bernanke has been cutting for months- how has that worked so far? The only thing he has succeeded in doing is destroying the dollar.
2. If BSC is only worth $2 I can think of a whole list of financials that are virtually worthless. Expect all financial companies to be re-priced. Many firms will eventually go to zero.
3. If BSC CEO comes on CNBC as he did the middle of last week and says everything is fine with his firm and they have not been significantly impacted and two days later they are broke then the guy is a fucking liar! Period. You don't go from just fine to broke in two days. Where are the handcuffs? Where are the regulators? WTF?!
2. If BSC is only worth $2 I can think of a whole list of financials that are virtually worthless. Expect all financial companies to be re-priced. Many firms will eventually go to zero.
3. If BSC CEO comes on CNBC as he did the middle of last week and says everything is fine with his firm and they have not been significantly impacted and two days later they are broke then the guy is a fucking liar! Period. You don't go from just fine to broke in two days. Where are the handcuffs? Where are the regulators? WTF?!
The Gates of Hell Have Opened
That's right folks. Allow me to again reiterate that we are completely fucking doomed. News over the weekend is that BSC is getting taken under for two bucks a share. That's right- $2. WOW. Also the Fed cut the discount rate on Sunday night despite their meeting scheduled for Tuesday. Can you say panic? You can't wait two days?!
So we're fucked. No surprise here.
This month has been extremely volatile. Last week I took some hits. Tuesday when the Fed orchestrated it's bailout and Thursday when I shorted into the hole were both painful days. However, I stuck to my convictions and come in this morning aggressively net short. My only wish is that I was more aggressively net short. I see opportunities everywhere.
Expect this holiday shortened week to be nothing short of absolutely insane. Fed meets on Tuesday, we have several economic numbers slated for release, and option expiration in addition to the elevated possibility of an outright crash here and now. Fasten your seatbelts- the ride is about to get bumpy.
So we're fucked. No surprise here.
This month has been extremely volatile. Last week I took some hits. Tuesday when the Fed orchestrated it's bailout and Thursday when I shorted into the hole were both painful days. However, I stuck to my convictions and come in this morning aggressively net short. My only wish is that I was more aggressively net short. I see opportunities everywhere.
Expect this holiday shortened week to be nothing short of absolutely insane. Fed meets on Tuesday, we have several economic numbers slated for release, and option expiration in addition to the elevated possibility of an outright crash here and now. Fasten your seatbelts- the ride is about to get bumpy.
Thursday, March 13, 2008
We Remain Doomed
Could this rally be over already? Seems very possible to me. Yesterday I dipped my toe back in on the short side and today I plan to get more aggressive.
The Fed is running out of ammunition. I'm wary of getting too excited ahead of the next rate cut (Tuesday) but they are starting to lose their grip. Every action they have taken seems to be less and less convincing to market participants. At some point the Fed loses all credibility. We are nearing that point.
I have more short ideas than I care to count with only a small handful of potential longs. At the end of the day I have to trade what the market gives me.
Last night after viewing just a portion of my watchlist I decided it was time to get short again. This morning the futures are down hard making things a bit tricky. I'll play it by ear but my intention is to put money to work.
The Fed is running out of ammunition. I'm wary of getting too excited ahead of the next rate cut (Tuesday) but they are starting to lose their grip. Every action they have taken seems to be less and less convincing to market participants. At some point the Fed loses all credibility. We are nearing that point.
I have more short ideas than I care to count with only a small handful of potential longs. At the end of the day I have to trade what the market gives me.
Last night after viewing just a portion of my watchlist I decided it was time to get short again. This morning the futures are down hard making things a bit tricky. I'll play it by ear but my intention is to put money to work.
Wednesday, March 12, 2008
Tuesday, March 11, 2008
Market (So Far) Failing to Hold 12K
I'm just sayin'...
UPDATE: 12K held decisively. The tired old bulls are in control again. I'm back to the waiting game.
UPDATE: 12K held decisively. The tired old bulls are in control again. I'm back to the waiting game.
Can We Please Just Go Higher?
Might as well take out 12K. I've already taken the hit so I'd like to see a sustained rally thereby allowing me to short the market into oblivion from higher levels.
My exposure is now minimal. I intend to sit on my ass for the rest of the day. I think I'll give my DVR a work-out.
I'm far from sold on the idea that we will trade higher but it would be nice. Who knows?
My exposure is now minimal. I intend to sit on my ass for the rest of the day. I think I'll give my DVR a work-out.
I'm far from sold on the idea that we will trade higher but it would be nice. Who knows?
Good Morning Vietnam! You've Just Been Bombed
Up until about 4:30 last night working, I awoke later than usual at about 9 and what a surprise. The Fed is out to knee-cap me again. Those fuckers. Down 2.5% as I write.
What do you know? Right to 12K on the DOW. That's my line in the sand. I've taken down a few shorts to control risk and am tightly monitoring my stops on all positions. Most have yet to be hit and we're going to have to hold 12K to send me scurrying for cover. Until that happens I will remain unimpressed.
Matter of fact this is probably a gift to the bears. Especially those looking for better entry points. I don't plan to do much today besides play defense. I'm not looking to immediately short into this since it doesn't fit my risk profile. I'll protect my equity first and foremost then re-evaluate when the dust clears a bit.
What do you know? Right to 12K on the DOW. That's my line in the sand. I've taken down a few shorts to control risk and am tightly monitoring my stops on all positions. Most have yet to be hit and we're going to have to hold 12K to send me scurrying for cover. Until that happens I will remain unimpressed.
Matter of fact this is probably a gift to the bears. Especially those looking for better entry points. I don't plan to do much today besides play defense. I'm not looking to immediately short into this since it doesn't fit my risk profile. I'll protect my equity first and foremost then re-evaluate when the dust clears a bit.
Back in the Saddle
On the first trading day of March I said it wasn't too late to sell. That was 500 DOW points ago. Whew! That was a quick 500. Now the consensus seems to be that we are oversold and due for a bounce. Fuck the consensus. Though, I suppose I could see 12K on the DOW one more time. Test those levels from below and see some names rally back to broken trendlines.
More than likely we continue to bleed. Everything is broken. Even the last of the bull markets are breaking. I see almost nowhere to hide. We are in a bear.
You can be certain violent rallies will surprise us out of nowhere but the trend is down. Rallies are selling opportunities.
So there you go. Both sides of the coin. The idea is not to hedge myself (clearly I remain a bear) but to remain flexible to what the market offers. Always remain flexible and never proclaim yourself smarter than the markets.
As for my personal trading, it's been difficult insofar as I withdrew from the markets at the end of last week and as a result ended up poorly positioned to take advantage of the recent swoon. I predicted as much Wednesday afternoon. Murphy's Law.
This morning I came back hungry. Shorted a handful of names and bulked up my exposure (which remains smallish). That worked and I was back to outperforming today. My inclination is to get really aggressive to make up for lost time but I don't make those mistakes anymore. I'm easing back in and letting go of the many attractive opportunities I missed.
Missing opportunities is difficult but new ones will arise. You just have to keep telling yourself that. I finally reached the level where I have the necessary skills to make money consistently over time. That alone is worth more than anything else. Therefore I know for certain new opportunities will present themselves. They were there this morning even after the two important days of action I missed last week.
More than likely we continue to bleed. Everything is broken. Even the last of the bull markets are breaking. I see almost nowhere to hide. We are in a bear.
You can be certain violent rallies will surprise us out of nowhere but the trend is down. Rallies are selling opportunities.
So there you go. Both sides of the coin. The idea is not to hedge myself (clearly I remain a bear) but to remain flexible to what the market offers. Always remain flexible and never proclaim yourself smarter than the markets.
As for my personal trading, it's been difficult insofar as I withdrew from the markets at the end of last week and as a result ended up poorly positioned to take advantage of the recent swoon. I predicted as much Wednesday afternoon. Murphy's Law.
This morning I came back hungry. Shorted a handful of names and bulked up my exposure (which remains smallish). That worked and I was back to outperforming today. My inclination is to get really aggressive to make up for lost time but I don't make those mistakes anymore. I'm easing back in and letting go of the many attractive opportunities I missed.
Missing opportunities is difficult but new ones will arise. You just have to keep telling yourself that. I finally reached the level where I have the necessary skills to make money consistently over time. That alone is worth more than anything else. Therefore I know for certain new opportunities will present themselves. They were there this morning even after the two important days of action I missed last week.
Wednesday, March 5, 2008
Hiatus
I want to throw the kitchen sink at this market and short it to zero. Normally I would be aggressively re-positioning here but I can't focus. There are too many distractions in my personal life and I need some time to get things straightened out.
I will not be initiating any new positions for now. In the meantime I have a small handful of positions (mostly shorts) that I'm willing to let run for now. I'm up nicely on the day. Once I get my shit together (hopefully soon) I'll be back with a vengeance. Mark my word.
I will not be initiating any new positions for now. In the meantime I have a small handful of positions (mostly shorts) that I'm willing to let run for now. I'm up nicely on the day. Once I get my shit together (hopefully soon) I'll be back with a vengeance. Mark my word.
March Blues
Yesterday was interesting. At one point we were down something like 220 pts on the DOW. Initially I was up 2% or so until commodity names rolled over. As the market knifed lower throughout the morning though I found myself up just 1%. Frankly I found it frustrating that I wasn't up more amidst substantial weakness. Just sort of had an uneasy feeling about the day.
Sure enough around 3 o'clock CNBS pulled another bailout rumour out of it's ass and we quickly rallied 150+ pts. Such is life as a bear. My gains were erased. Minor losses ensued. My uneasy feeling combined with the reversal combined with support around 12K inspired me to sacrifice positions. Sometimes you just have to throw shit into the fire and clear your head. That's exactly what I did.
Truth is, I fucked up pretty good this last week or so. Presented with great entry points last week I twiddled my thumbs instead acting with conviction and putting capital to work. Sure I caught a couple of nice moves but missed many great opportunities. I've just generally felt uninspired and been distracted by my personal life.
Maybe I'm too comfortable. Maybe I'm distracted. Maybe I'm just full of excuses. Regardless, I've taken a step back and refuse to chase the trades I've missed. It's going to take a solid bounce for me to put money to work. Perhaps I'll be that lucky but my hunch is that I've missed a great opportunity.
As for today, I hardly have enough skin in the game to really give a shit. Hoping the market has found support around 12k for now. More than likely I'll spend my afternoon laying on the beach. Tough break, I know.
Sure enough around 3 o'clock CNBS pulled another bailout rumour out of it's ass and we quickly rallied 150+ pts. Such is life as a bear. My gains were erased. Minor losses ensued. My uneasy feeling combined with the reversal combined with support around 12K inspired me to sacrifice positions. Sometimes you just have to throw shit into the fire and clear your head. That's exactly what I did.
Truth is, I fucked up pretty good this last week or so. Presented with great entry points last week I twiddled my thumbs instead acting with conviction and putting capital to work. Sure I caught a couple of nice moves but missed many great opportunities. I've just generally felt uninspired and been distracted by my personal life.
Maybe I'm too comfortable. Maybe I'm distracted. Maybe I'm just full of excuses. Regardless, I've taken a step back and refuse to chase the trades I've missed. It's going to take a solid bounce for me to put money to work. Perhaps I'll be that lucky but my hunch is that I've missed a great opportunity.
As for today, I hardly have enough skin in the game to really give a shit. Hoping the market has found support around 12k for now. More than likely I'll spend my afternoon laying on the beach. Tough break, I know.
Monday, March 3, 2008
Friday, February 29, 2008
Log It
Bulls got raped today. DOW down 2.5%. I did some raping, up 2%. Good not great . February saw the market down 3% or so. I logged a 9%+ gain.
Enjoy your weekend. I will be enjoying mine with rich man's whiskey.
Enjoy your weekend. I will be enjoying mine with rich man's whiskey.
Tough Day to be a Bull, Good Day to be a Bullfucker
The market is getting hammered this morning and I must say that my performance is less than stellar. Not because I'm losing money but because I'm not making more than I am.
I feel confident in saying that the market will not go to zero today, nor will the bear market end anytime soon. As a result I'm trying not to get too excited and start selling into the hole.
Take a deep breath.
I followed my plan and bulked up my BAC short, sold my MUR (gave back a point and kept the other nine that I made in the last three weeks), trimmed some AUY (to bank profits)...have a chunky short position in GM already in place so I'm comfortable if not happy with my exposure. Oh and I have copious amounts of dry powder. Trimmed my chunky NFX position yesterday and will look to buy on a pullback to support (impressive breakout by the way).
A bounce off the lows would be nice in order to get better entry points but we just keep knifing lower, down 240 pts. on the DOW now.
I feel confident in saying that the market will not go to zero today, nor will the bear market end anytime soon. As a result I'm trying not to get too excited and start selling into the hole.
Take a deep breath.
I followed my plan and bulked up my BAC short, sold my MUR (gave back a point and kept the other nine that I made in the last three weeks), trimmed some AUY (to bank profits)...have a chunky short position in GM already in place so I'm comfortable if not happy with my exposure. Oh and I have copious amounts of dry powder. Trimmed my chunky NFX position yesterday and will look to buy on a pullback to support (impressive breakout by the way).
A bounce off the lows would be nice in order to get better entry points but we just keep knifing lower, down 240 pts. on the DOW now.
Thursday, February 28, 2008
Here We Go Again, Grab Your Helmet
Here's what I see going through my watchlist: a list of potential short candidates longer than my arm. Noticed the same imbalance last night too. As a result I started putting more money to work this afternoon on the short side.
Looks to me as if the financials are getting ready to lead us lower once again. That has been the number one market tell since August of last year. When the financials start to swoon it gets ugly quick. I haven't done too much with this idea relative to how strongly I feel about it but I did buy back some SKF (yesterday) and shorted some BAC (today). I intend to aggressively short BAC (I'm an unsatisfied customer) but I'll wait until it cracks the 50-dma to double my position.
The last market swoon we had didn't hold and in fact rebounded quite violently due to the fact that the financials (and housing stocks) were bouncing. With the financials rolling over I'm much more confident betting against the market here. Mark my word (ad nauseum), pain lies directly ahead.
Tomorrow is month end. I'm up about 7.5% in February (not quite my best levels but God-like returns nonetheless). The market itself is basically flat during that time.
Time to go hunt some bulls. I've sharpened my bear claws.
Looks to me as if the financials are getting ready to lead us lower once again. That has been the number one market tell since August of last year. When the financials start to swoon it gets ugly quick. I haven't done too much with this idea relative to how strongly I feel about it but I did buy back some SKF (yesterday) and shorted some BAC (today). I intend to aggressively short BAC (I'm an unsatisfied customer) but I'll wait until it cracks the 50-dma to double my position.
The last market swoon we had didn't hold and in fact rebounded quite violently due to the fact that the financials (and housing stocks) were bouncing. With the financials rolling over I'm much more confident betting against the market here. Mark my word (ad nauseum), pain lies directly ahead.
Tomorrow is month end. I'm up about 7.5% in February (not quite my best levels but God-like returns nonetheless). The market itself is basically flat during that time.
Time to go hunt some bulls. I've sharpened my bear claws.
More Grid Problems
HOUSTON (Reuters) - A drop in wind generation late on Tuesday, coupled with colder weather, triggered an electric emergency that caused the Texas grid operator to cut service to some large customers, the grid agency said on Wednesday.
ClickHere
Is it just me, or is this becoming more common?
ClickHere
Is it just me, or is this becoming more common?
Wednesday, February 27, 2008
Our Grid is Antiquated
AP- A relatively minor glitch in Florida’s electrical grid somehow triggered a chain reaction Tuesday that caused a nuclear plant to shut down and briefly cut power in patches from Daytona Beach through the Florida Keys.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23355118/
Americans take many things for granted. Behind the scenes it's a precarious balance. In the years ahead it will get harder to keep our lights on and our plates full of food. Go ahead and scoff at your own risk.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23355118/
Americans take many things for granted. Behind the scenes it's a precarious balance. In the years ahead it will get harder to keep our lights on and our plates full of food. Go ahead and scoff at your own risk.
Tuesday, February 26, 2008
Whew!
Glad to be out of my shorts. Caught the turn quite nicely. Market is rocketing higher and the one short I kept (FNM) is down 3%+. The longs are working nicely and NFX may finally be ready to reward my patience. Feeling good. It's better to be profitable than dogmatic.
We have a couple weeks before the profit warnings begin to roll in and the bulls are in control. Take the ball and run with it boys.
I'm 98% equity and have a lot of dry powder.
We have a couple weeks before the profit warnings begin to roll in and the bulls are in control. Take the ball and run with it boys.
I'm 98% equity and have a lot of dry powder.
Long As Hell
This is probably the most long-side exposure I've had since August of last year. You too can believe in fairy tales. It's nice to not have to worry about some crazy 100 pt. intra-day spike taking a chunk out of my ass.
Hopefully the market can continue breaking the shorts although it's not a foregone conclusion as the major averages have yet to convincingly break out- but they are very close. Better entry points await. While awaiting those better entry points (from which to sell aggressively) I'll regroup from the long side and play some potential breakouts. Must say I'm very excited about my longs. Here is a taste of a few of my favorite longs.
Monday, February 25, 2008
Goldilocks Lives
Another day another big intra-day spike in the market. Today's bailout was of the monolines resulting in the DOW closing another 189 pts higher on top of Friday's anticipatory ramp-job. Rating agencies have reaffirmed the monolines fraudulent triple-A ratings on top of a large cash infusion into the black hole that is Ambac. More belief in fairy tales and happy endings by market participants.
Tell me this, how overwhelming is the exposure to toxic waste of these financial concerns (Citigroup, Wachovia, etc.) that they would be willing to throw a couple billion dollars at Ambac? It must be pretty scary.
This bailout is just another Wall Street shell game. It's all a matter of shifting some billions around in order to hide the losses. Problem is the losses remain and further obfuscation doesn't change that fact. You can get away with all this fraud because there is no regulation whatsoever. Actually, I'd go so far as to say that the regulators (and the Fed) are complicit in the fraud. They've certainly enabled it to go on and on.
So here we are with the indices right back where they started the month. I'm up 5%-ish. I've covered most of my shorts to preserve capital. Having done so may prove premature and I'm anxiously anticipating the opportunity to start selling again. Fact is I trade to put food on the table not to prove how right I am. Sometimes you have to err on the side of caution. Should the market continue to trade based on fairy tales I'll pack it in and go kayaking.
Tell me this, how overwhelming is the exposure to toxic waste of these financial concerns (Citigroup, Wachovia, etc.) that they would be willing to throw a couple billion dollars at Ambac? It must be pretty scary.
This bailout is just another Wall Street shell game. It's all a matter of shifting some billions around in order to hide the losses. Problem is the losses remain and further obfuscation doesn't change that fact. You can get away with all this fraud because there is no regulation whatsoever. Actually, I'd go so far as to say that the regulators (and the Fed) are complicit in the fraud. They've certainly enabled it to go on and on.
So here we are with the indices right back where they started the month. I'm up 5%-ish. I've covered most of my shorts to preserve capital. Having done so may prove premature and I'm anxiously anticipating the opportunity to start selling again. Fact is I trade to put food on the table not to prove how right I am. Sometimes you have to err on the side of caution. Should the market continue to trade based on fairy tales I'll pack it in and go kayaking.
Monday Monday
Perhaps I was too hasty in calling out Gasparino on Friday. He's generally likable and (relative to the shallow talent pool on CNBS) competent enough. I just don't much appreciate getting knee-capped on a Friday afternoon. Fact is, some men feel the need to play the game and get in line. To do what they are told. Just so happens I'm not one of them. Been there, done that and it didn't take me long to figure out it wasn't for me.
Anyway, the market rallied because it was due to rally when it did. I should have taken profits. I knew that and failed to act. If anyone, I should be frustrated with myself. In totality, last week was profitable and this morning is so far so good. It's been a good month and I will react quickly to protect profits.
Today represents an epic struggle between bulls and bears. From a technical perspective, whoever takes control this week should be able to dominate the action for awhile. This is the bulls' big chance.
Should the bulls gain the upper hand my plan is to avoid getting pummelled. Preserve my hard earned profits and live to fight another day. Better entry points will await.
Anyway, the market rallied because it was due to rally when it did. I should have taken profits. I knew that and failed to act. If anyone, I should be frustrated with myself. In totality, last week was profitable and this morning is so far so good. It's been a good month and I will react quickly to protect profits.
Today represents an epic struggle between bulls and bears. From a technical perspective, whoever takes control this week should be able to dominate the action for awhile. This is the bulls' big chance.
Should the bulls gain the upper hand my plan is to avoid getting pummelled. Preserve my hard earned profits and live to fight another day. Better entry points will await.
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