Monday, August 4, 2008

Putting Dogma Aside

It's no secret that I'm a big proponent of owning precious metals. The whole reason I've owned metals for the last few years is in anticipation of this very moment in time. The moment when the government tries to bail out Wall Street and it becomes clear to all that Bernanke is in a box. That's my financial dogma. Now the reality, is something different.

Gold failed to hold $900. Let us take a look at GDX, which tracks mining shares. I see a potential top.


That's ugly. Also problematic is the chart of my old friend PAAS. I've made a small fortune being long this stock over the years but now I want to be on the other side of that trade. At least for the time being.

You know, the market is funny and often operates contrary to your expectations. I'm somewhat surprised the metals aren't going nuts to the upside considering the backdrop. However, I trade based on reality not dogma. Best case scenario is that the metals get hammered and set up the buying opportunity of a lifetime. We'll see.

Yes I did short PAAS this morning.

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