Monday, August 4, 2008

Nowhere to Hide

Up until last week you could have avoided most of the pain by hiding out in commodities. Not anymore. This jives with my thesis insofar as all along I have maintained that we would reach a point in time where there would be "nowhere to hide".

The general consensus is that commodities getting bludgeoned should be bullish for everything else. I'm not so sure about that. Rather I think the pain has just increased. Previously we were pricing in an elevated chance of outright implosion in the financials, which became less pronounced once Bernanke and Paulson decided to try and bail out their buddies, now we are pricing in a recession. Enjoy.

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