Sunday, January 6, 2008

Late Night Musings

To quickly recap Friday: the bulls got mauled.

As a bear I'm figuring that the eventual bounce will be extremely violent in nature. Worthwhile to keep that in mind to prevent yourself from getting too aggressive on the short side. Ultimately this market is headed lower. No surprise on my part.

The first three days of 08 have almost been too good to me. Huh? Well I have that sinking feeling that I'm about to be severely corrected. Call it a conditioned response. Make a bunch and give a bunch back. Growing in fits and starts is my trading history. But I've had the sinking nervous feeling over and over for months yet have not crashed.

Halfway through my weekend homework I see fewer opportunities than in previous weeks. Serious damage has been done and many names no longer offer favorable entry points. Naturally every idea I didn't play last week worked beautifully. Fully invested there was not much I could do to initiate new positions. Close something just to move it to something else is a matter of getting too cute.

Profits have been booked. Capital has been raised.

Again I left money on the table by downsizing my commercial real estate shorts modestly towards the end of last week. It's instructive to point out mistakes and such as the purpose of this blog is to continue to grow as a trader.

Back to work. Carry on.

NOTE: CROX closed Friday down five bucks.

No comments: