God I hate Ben Bernanke. If I could string that man up by his testicles I would, without hesitation. We didn't even make through the day before he dreamt up the next bailout.
The Fed will now open the discount window to Fannie and Freddie? Wow. This man is fucking batshit insane. Plan for higher interest rates and much higher gold prices. Shit at this rate it won't be long before it will be cheaper to wipe your ass with dollar bills than with toilet paper.
You might think a gold bull like myself would enjoy these sorts of things. You'd be wrong. See I have a son and I don't especially care for Bernanke trying to bankrupt his generation before he can even form a complete sentence.
The silver lining is that this bullshit went down on a Friday. I needed to take down some risk anyway. It's better than walking into a buzzsaw on a Monday morning. So I say fuck you Bernanke! I will keep all of my profits today. Hell with it, I'm calling it a day. A sad one for America indeed.
I'm pretty fired up. You can expect that I will rain down fire on this market next week, then I'll go on vacation. I'm especially pist for having covered LEH into the pop.
Have a nice weekend comrades.
Friday, July 11, 2008
Q & A
Q: Who owns all those Fannie and Freddie bonds not sold to the Chinese?
A: Your pension fund.
Oops. You're fucked.
NOTE: Your money market fund owns them too. As a matter of fact they're everywhere.
A: Your pension fund.
Oops. You're fucked.
NOTE: Your money market fund owns them too. As a matter of fact they're everywhere.
One Day Closer to the Next Bailout
Good Morning!
What a nice day it is; the sun is out, the birds are chirping and the US financial system is crashing down around us. How pleasant.
Fannie and Freddie are inevitably zeros and wouldn't you know it- gold is going nuts. I believe I called that shit. Again.
Seriously, I've been talking about the likelihood of bloodbath for years and I can honestly say I've never seen the financial system so close to complete and utter collapse. Be afraid, be very afraid. And don't think we can't crash.
When the next big bailout comes I'm guessing gold goes nuts as the dollar craters and interest rates go higher. My question is this: once the government acts to bailout all those who have acted irresponsibly who is going to bail out the government? Hmmm. No one. This is truly too big to bail. Bernanke is just going to print money out of thin air and monetize all that bad debt. Which brings us back to why you must own gold.
Thus far I'm up about 3% on the day. I covered a few shorts this morning and bought more SLV at the open. You must own precious metals as a hedge against the crazy shit Bernanke is going to pull. Consider it an insurance policy. When your dollar no longer buys you so much as gumball you'll be able to trade your gold for a goat.
What a nice day it is; the sun is out, the birds are chirping and the US financial system is crashing down around us. How pleasant.
Fannie and Freddie are inevitably zeros and wouldn't you know it- gold is going nuts. I believe I called that shit. Again.
Seriously, I've been talking about the likelihood of bloodbath for years and I can honestly say I've never seen the financial system so close to complete and utter collapse. Be afraid, be very afraid. And don't think we can't crash.
When the next big bailout comes I'm guessing gold goes nuts as the dollar craters and interest rates go higher. My question is this: once the government acts to bailout all those who have acted irresponsibly who is going to bail out the government? Hmmm. No one. This is truly too big to bail. Bernanke is just going to print money out of thin air and monetize all that bad debt. Which brings us back to why you must own gold.
Thus far I'm up about 3% on the day. I covered a few shorts this morning and bought more SLV at the open. You must own precious metals as a hedge against the crazy shit Bernanke is going to pull. Consider it an insurance policy. When your dollar no longer buys you so much as gumball you'll be able to trade your gold for a goat.
Thursday, July 10, 2008
America Continues to Hit New Lows
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D91R4LR00&show_article=1
Congress has just eviscerated the fourth amendent. Just gives you that warm fuzzy feeling doesn't it?
NOTE: I will soon be writing this from some other fucking country.
Congress has just eviscerated the fourth amendent. Just gives you that warm fuzzy feeling doesn't it?
NOTE: I will soon be writing this from some other fucking country.
Another Day, Another "Bottom"
My godly gains of this morning have turned to mush as the market rips higher. Up a hundy once again. Let me just say this: those who think that with the economy going to hell in a hand basket it will be safe to hide out in tech have no business managing money. Somehow tech is not GDP-sensitive? The biggest corporate buyers of tech are in the financial services industry. I think maybe that might be a problem going forward.
DELL is a good example of this moronic notion.
Just for fun I shorted some LEH. Either I get stopped out @ $20 or it goes to zero (or whatever price the Fed bails it out at- say $10).
DELL is a good example of this moronic notion.
Just for fun I shorted some LEH. Either I get stopped out @ $20 or it goes to zero (or whatever price the Fed bails it out at- say $10).
All Is Again Right With the World
My short exposure has been increased to reasonable levels once again. Sold some DELL, PCLN, TOL and more BX. Also initiated what I like to call "the balls of steel trade" via short GOOG.
What do you know? Profits are accruing to me in short order.
To pair with all my short exposure I continue to increase my metals exposure. My current disposition is long gold, short everything else. Not unlike my previous disposition which had been long energy, short everything else.
Making money on the short side still seems almost too easy and that makes me nervous.
Oh and I'm long AEM. Which is nice. Buy the miners here. Like GG too.
What do you know? Profits are accruing to me in short order.
To pair with all my short exposure I continue to increase my metals exposure. My current disposition is long gold, short everything else. Not unlike my previous disposition which had been long energy, short everything else.
Making money on the short side still seems almost too easy and that makes me nervous.
Oh and I'm long AEM. Which is nice. Buy the miners here. Like GG too.
Wednesday, July 9, 2008
Random Thoughts
One. Sitting here on the sidelines of the market action I must say I enjoy watching my son's UGMA account blowing up. He's 20 months old now and up 15% on the year by shorting commercial real estate. He's a bear just like daddy.
Two. If Iran were to wipe Israel of the map I really wouldn't care. A few less lobbyists in Washington.
Two. If Iran were to wipe Israel of the map I really wouldn't care. A few less lobbyists in Washington.
Fun to Watch
Well, yesterday turned out not to be a yawner after all. While I was sitting on my porch bullshitting with a buddy the market screamed higher thereby stripping me of my gains for the month. Not big gains but nonetheless I'm back to zero on the month.
Once I checked the market at about 3:30 it was full on damage control mode. Already small, now my exposure is almost nonexistent. I shoot first and ask questions later. I'm keen to the possibility of a big bounce although my hunch is that we have more downside first. It's one of those extremely rare instances where I would rather just sit on my hands and watch. I'm sure as hell not going to be buying much of anything.
Now today the bulls are getting killed again. Dow down 155 at the moment. Did you buy the latest in a series of bottoms called almost daily by CNBC? How's that working out for you? Keep in mind that every one of those yahoos telling you to buy is getting killed in this market. Just like your 401K.
At this point my next great trade may not be from the short side after all. Maybe it will be getting long more gold. I haven't taken much action but I'm starting to like how the metals are trading here. Also like the action in the mining stocks so I'm watching them closely.
Once I checked the market at about 3:30 it was full on damage control mode. Already small, now my exposure is almost nonexistent. I shoot first and ask questions later. I'm keen to the possibility of a big bounce although my hunch is that we have more downside first. It's one of those extremely rare instances where I would rather just sit on my hands and watch. I'm sure as hell not going to be buying much of anything.
Now today the bulls are getting killed again. Dow down 155 at the moment. Did you buy the latest in a series of bottoms called almost daily by CNBC? How's that working out for you? Keep in mind that every one of those yahoos telling you to buy is getting killed in this market. Just like your 401K.
At this point my next great trade may not be from the short side after all. Maybe it will be getting long more gold. I haven't taken much action but I'm starting to like how the metals are trading here. Also like the action in the mining stocks so I'm watching them closely.
Tuesday, July 8, 2008
Another Yawner
Another day that could best be described as boring. I continue to get smaller. Covered BHP down two and a half and EOG down four. Thank you very much. Also covered a few other shorts and a couple longs. Up a half a percent at the moment. Happy with that.
Frankly, boring is good. I remain net short but unconcerned with the market's strength. I welcome it. I'd much rather sell into strength. Gold made me a bit nervous mid morning and I almost got stopped out of my trading position. Thankfully I hung on as it has bounced again this afternoon. Commodities generally have downside still. Not looking to chase that trade having already taken advantage.
With the "hawkish" ECB signalling neutrality gold has upside. I put the word hawkish in quotations as there is no such thing as a hawkish central bank on the planet today (to my knowledge anyway). And Bernanke is a fucking joke. The Fed could give two shits about inflation. The consensus is that they are done cutting but I disagree. Under no circumstances will they raise and if anything they will cut again.
Frankly, boring is good. I remain net short but unconcerned with the market's strength. I welcome it. I'd much rather sell into strength. Gold made me a bit nervous mid morning and I almost got stopped out of my trading position. Thankfully I hung on as it has bounced again this afternoon. Commodities generally have downside still. Not looking to chase that trade having already taken advantage.
With the "hawkish" ECB signalling neutrality gold has upside. I put the word hawkish in quotations as there is no such thing as a hawkish central bank on the planet today (to my knowledge anyway). And Bernanke is a fucking joke. The Fed could give two shits about inflation. The consensus is that they are done cutting but I disagree. Under no circumstances will they raise and if anything they will cut again.
Monday, July 7, 2008
Whipsaw
Today's market was one giant whipsaw. Up 100+ pts then a couple hundred point drop then another 150 pt rally before selling off another 100 pts into the close. I'm officially nauseous, how 'bout you? I continue to interpret this sort of action as symptomatic of a market under extreme stress.
Same for my account balance. Down big, then up big, then pretty much right back where it started. A waste of my time. There were many opportunities to be taken advantage of today and I did a piss-poor job of capitalizing. Tomorrow is a new day.
Same for my account balance. Down big, then up big, then pretty much right back where it started. A waste of my time. There were many opportunities to be taken advantage of today and I did a piss-poor job of capitalizing. Tomorrow is a new day.
The Iceberg Has Just Been Struck
I could have told you a couple years ago with 100% confidence that this was coming. That is the death of Fannie and Freddie.
Having shorted, with varying levels of success, these names repeatedly over the years to now watch them crater while having no position makes me want to throw myself through a fucking plate glass window. Fuck!
An event of this nature is without question one of my tells on the coming apocalypse. Well, get ready because here it comes. This is going to get extremely ugly in the months ahead ending in a taxpayer bailout the magnitude of which is indescribable.
For Whom the Bell TOLs
Excuse my cheesy title.
Didn't expect today's 100 pt. rally to last. That being said I wasn't really expecting a 200 pt. drop from the highs by lunchtime either. I did add to my short exposure before the drop but I remain somewhat underexposed. So it's a good day so far but not great.
Put a fork in it.
Didn't expect today's 100 pt. rally to last. That being said I wasn't really expecting a 200 pt. drop from the highs by lunchtime either. I did add to my short exposure before the drop but I remain somewhat underexposed. So it's a good day so far but not great.
The freshly initiated short positions in BHP and EOG appear to be working quite nicely and GLD has come roaring back. My hunch was to add to my GLD position but I did not since it's already pretty chunky. This mornings weakness in the metals may have been a buying opportunity but I don't have a lot of conviction either way in the short term.
I did though add to my TOL short. This may have been the break I've been waiting for.
Put a fork in it.
Back at it Again
Hope everyone had a nice holiday. Back to business (at least, in my case, until I go on vacation in a couple weeks).
Glutton for punishment that I am, I'm taking a stab at some commodity related names. Here are two head and shoulders tops I'm watching closely and wading into cautiously (from the short side obviously).
Funny. I had this intense urge to clear out my GLD position (in the trading account) on Thursday afternoon. Needless to say, I managed to rationalize hanging on. What do you know, it's getting creamed this morning.
Market is strong out of the gates today but this feels more like a retest of the broken lows on the S&P as opposed to a sustainable bottom. I'm getting smacked around a bit but remain very conservatively positioned coming out of last week, with lots of dry powder. This strength is welcome. To a point.
Thursday, July 3, 2008
This and That
Covered my ICE short. Just like to take profits. It goes much much lower over time, matter of fact I'd say it has 50 points of downside but my time horizon is days to weeks not weeks to months. Captured a quick 7 plus points (since yesterday), a small gift from Mother Market. OK fine. I will revisit the idea once more should it bounce.
Most traders make the mistake of thinking only about their potential profits. However, I'm looking at risk. Should the market decide to really bounce ICE will be 10 points higher in the blink of an eye.
Today I have no interest in trading stocks. I've been laying on the couch watching Wimbledon instead. If I was interested I'd be selling LRCX. If I was a day trader I'd also have been selling LRCX like crazy @ 36. But I am neither interested, nor a day trader.
Most traders make the mistake of thinking only about their potential profits. However, I'm looking at risk. Should the market decide to really bounce ICE will be 10 points higher in the blink of an eye.
Today I have no interest in trading stocks. I've been laying on the couch watching Wimbledon instead. If I was interested I'd be selling LRCX. If I was a day trader I'd also have been selling LRCX like crazy @ 36. But I am neither interested, nor a day trader.
If At First You Don't Succeed...
...blah blah blah.
Shorted TOL again this morning. I swear it hates me. I short it, it bounces, I cover. Rinse and repeat. Like marriage and McDonalds hamburgers, very unsatisfying.
Anyway, fuck that shit. Eventually it cracks. Mark my word. It will trade in the single digits before next summer.
Does anyone else find it difficult to initiate short sales into a gazillion point drop? Thought so. As for today's action, expect the bulls to put on a brave face buy into the feel good Fourth of July rally.
Shorted TOL again this morning. I swear it hates me. I short it, it bounces, I cover. Rinse and repeat. Like marriage and McDonalds hamburgers, very unsatisfying.
Anyway, fuck that shit. Eventually it cracks. Mark my word. It will trade in the single digits before next summer.
Does anyone else find it difficult to initiate short sales into a gazillion point drop? Thought so. As for today's action, expect the bulls to put on a brave face buy into the feel good Fourth of July rally.
Quick Word of Warning
So I go take a nap and wake up to see the DOW another 80 points lower. That's some bullshit. On the day we traded down 1.5% and I was up 1.5%. OK I guess but somewhat disappointing. I feel like I missed some opportunities today.
Tomorrow is a shortened session which is likely to be quite interesting. Employment report and the ECB announcement on the docket before a long holiday weekend.
The lows on the S&P were penetrated today. A whole bunch of momentum stocks were shellacked including, but not limited to, coal, steel, ag and oil. Allow me to reiterate that we are completely fucked. Period. Don't try to sell me some bullshit about a second half recovery or the Fed is gonna save us. Ain't gonna happen.
It is not too late to sell. If you've been in denial this whole time you better start to take action ASAP. Raise cash, get out of debt and start living within your means. What happens if you get fired from your job? Are you prepared, just in case?
The time will come where there will be nowhere to hide. The pain is not even close to being done and I'd argue it's just getting started. This entire country is in for one big wake up call. Or should I say margin call?
Tomorrow is a shortened session which is likely to be quite interesting. Employment report and the ECB announcement on the docket before a long holiday weekend.
The lows on the S&P were penetrated today. A whole bunch of momentum stocks were shellacked including, but not limited to, coal, steel, ag and oil. Allow me to reiterate that we are completely fucked. Period. Don't try to sell me some bullshit about a second half recovery or the Fed is gonna save us. Ain't gonna happen.
It is not too late to sell. If you've been in denial this whole time you better start to take action ASAP. Raise cash, get out of debt and start living within your means. What happens if you get fired from your job? Are you prepared, just in case?
The time will come where there will be nowhere to hide. The pain is not even close to being done and I'd argue it's just getting started. This entire country is in for one big wake up call. Or should I say margin call?
Wednesday, July 2, 2008
Just Chillin'
Provided the market hangs in there for a couple more days I'll probably just sit on my hands until after the long holiday weekend. Must say it's nice to not be tethered to the market today. I have so little capital at risk that I've just been goofing off all morning. For a change I'm not sweating every little squiggly line up and down.
So I'll just chill out and watch in delight as the mo-mo crowd gets a swift kick to the balls via cratering coal and steel stocks. Ouch. That shit's gotta hurt.
Maybe I'll go for a jog, take a dip in the pool and then a nap. Napping is one discipline for which I have nearly unmatched aptitude. I'm a talented fellow indeed.
In the past I've had a hard time stepping back from the market, feeling as if I had to play every move. As I gain experience though I realize that all of my greatest gains are AHEAD of me. Besides it's best to step back some on the heels of a ridiculously profitable run.
So I'll just chill out and watch in delight as the mo-mo crowd gets a swift kick to the balls via cratering coal and steel stocks. Ouch. That shit's gotta hurt.
Maybe I'll go for a jog, take a dip in the pool and then a nap. Napping is one discipline for which I have nearly unmatched aptitude. I'm a talented fellow indeed.
In the past I've had a hard time stepping back from the market, feeling as if I had to play every move. As I gain experience though I realize that all of my greatest gains are AHEAD of me. Besides it's best to step back some on the heels of a ridiculously profitable run.
Let's Review
At the end of April I suggested a few restaurant stocks to be sold. Let's review.
BOBE was trading @ $27. It's now around $28 but in the interim traded as high as $34. Loss!
DIN (formerly known as I-HoP) was trading @ $48. Now $36. Big Win!
Finally we have my old friend CBRL. Told you to sell @ $34. Now $22. They just warned the other day. Big Win.
So I was 2 and 1. In the winners I was right to the tune of 12 points each. My thesis that higher oil prices would hit these roadside diners was correct I'd say.
Class dismissed.
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