Remember Me? I'm Still Here

To continue where I left off...I did quit. Blogging.

Long story short I blew a giant hole in my equity position in August and September before making it all back in October. Never have I been so close to throwing my hands in the air and shutting it down.

Last year was brutal. Either you made a little or lost a lot. The former in my case. I have to admit that despite my outperformance I'm very dissappointed to have not made a fortune. I was bearish as hell and the market got hammered. What do you know, this trading shit is really hard.

The silver lining is that I'm still at the table ready to play the next hand. I'm learning all the time and am now armed with better tools. So here we go again. It's 2009. Let's roll the dice again.

Back From The Dead

To be totally honest, I felt like quitting on Friday. I have been a disaster, for the most part, since the end of July. Friday I came in midday selling the rally which worked for about two hours, then into the close I got ran over. I didn't cover as nothing I saw was unexpected.

Nonetheless, I've had a long losing streak in which, at times, I've been completely without direction. It's not so much about the money lost. That happens. It's the fact that I have invested myself completely into this over a number of years, both financially and emotionally. Trading is it for me. Then to feel like you're failing. Well let's just say it's sobering.

So I felt sorry for myself all night Friday and all day Saturday. Didn't look at a chart until Sunday afternoon. By Sunday night I realized that I have a long track record to look back at for some perspective. I've been trading again for 63 months. I've had months much worse than this one and I have always bounced back. This time will be no different.

So what happened today? I was proven dead right. The selling I did Friday rewarded me today. It was truly a monster day. Not only that, but it appears increasingly likely that I am well positioned for the upcoming move.

So after all my mistakes and self-flagellation here I sit. Still at the table.

Whew!

As expected, we had our retrace this morning. I must say I'm very lucky to have seen it coming. Selling my SKF yesterday afternoon was a damn fine call. I think that bad boy was down something like eight bucks this morning. Multiply that by a chunky position and you get the idea of the sort of pain I sidestepped. I actually felt guilty for having sold it until I woke up and saw the futures up huge in the AM.

I'll admit, I was a touch surprised by the strength this morning but it's exactly what I want to see. This is typical of a retrace to a broken trend line. Same thing with oil yesterday, retraced in a straight line.

So with the market up over 12,600, I started selling. Have a handful of shorts touching the underside of their trend lines which I have added to. Started buying back my inverse ETFs. SKF I will scale back into a hundred shares at a time.

I was down at one point almost 2.5%. Now just down a touch. If I am correct in concluding that the advance has ended, I'm going to look like a genius. If not, I will retreat again.

Going Higher, For the Moment

This afternoon we broke out of a two day old triangle on the S&P. We may have another 10 points or so to the upside. I decided to stand aside somewhat. Took down my DXD and SKF. Holding onto SRS and will be looking to add. I'll be back in SKF soon enough but there is no reason for me to sit and get pounded.

My target for the S&P is 1285. If we make a run at the broken trend line off the lows we are looking at 1295 or so. For the time being anyway I'm waiting for 1285-ish before I consider getting aggressively short once more.

RISK!

We are going lower. Could we bounce tomorrow? Sure, why not. I will add to my shorts either way. We are going lower.

My general mind frame in the market is that anything can happen and you will often be wrong. At the same time, I want to get paid when I'm right. Don't feel as if I capitalize on winning ideas to the degree I should in order to maximize my returns. The whole idea is to maximize profit and minimize loss. I feel confident in my ability to do the latter but not the former. So in a situation like this, where I have a high probability of success, I will press my bets, i.e. take more risk.

Let me put it this way: if we go lower, say re-test the lows, I will get paid. I will materially improve my situation.

So here is the challenge. I have to stay put and wait. Not so easy. It's a big and growing position and I tend to have happy feet. I have to submit to the volatility inherent in a bet of this size. If I entered at the right time my position will not be threatened by a pullback. If not, I'm wrong and I admit it. Limit losses, period.

My time frame has gotten shorter, and churn higher, lately due to a number of factors. Choppiness of recent market action (i.e. failed breakouts, of which there are many) and more time spent in front of the laptop in the summer, to name two. Looking to play the big swing here in the longer time frame.

All the time I am closer to taking my trading to the next level. Now with better tools, I'm tweaking and improving my trade all the time. The whole idea is to stay at the table or in the game until you get your chance to win big. But win big you must.

My biggest fear is the next bullshit bailout. Paulson and that other asshole, Bernanke. Better come up with some coherent plan fellas, Fannie and Freddie are going to zero pretty quick. The list of financials circling the bowl is lengthy. In totality, it's too big to bail but I'm sure the stunts will continue.

Bearish Again; It Feels So Good

We are just beginning the next wave down. I suspect it may get ugly. Yesterday I tacked quickly and became an aggressive buyer of SKF. Today I will add SRS.

Financials will lead the market lower again. Commercial real estate is about to get smashed. Recently I had been seeing a lot of breakouts and potential breakouts, now I see failed breakouts and resistance. I remember feeling the same way last time commercial RE shares topped out. This time though I mistakenly bought some of the failed breakouts.

Nothing, rather not much, has worked for me recently but I feel very confident betting against the market here. Refiner trade didn't work. AMLN didn't work. HSY didn't work. That's what happens when you get too cute. The market charges tuition fees.

I realize that there is a degree of the 'get it all back' mindset, following losses, but I really want to press my bets.

Rut-Roh!

The uptrend lines on the DOW and S&P have been smashed. Reality is about to set in. Seriously this may get ugly pretty quick, or maybe it will get ugly gradually, but it is going to get ugly. Consider yourself warned.

I Am Never Going On Vacation Again

Ever since returning from my vacation in July I have been a mess. I have been a loser. I have had no conviction whatsoever. I have made every mistake in the book and been behind the market at every turn. Long every bloodbath and short every spike. Leaning one way then the other, flapping in the breeze.

This is all very upsetting. I am emotionally and psychologically tied to winning and losing. I win and life is pretty good. I lose and life is downright depressing. This in itself is a problem.

To be honest, I am shell shocked. I am the proverbial deer in the headlights. Today I actually just froze up and couldn't act. It's enough to make you want to quit.

I have been here before. I will pick up the pieces and slowly plot my comeback. I have worked way too hard to give up. It's not in my nature to quit. My losses are very manageable, small compared to other losing streaks. I will scrape my way back and I will have my revenge. I assure you.

Testing Support Again

Futures trading down a 9AM/EST. If we open down here (not a foregone conclusion) we are going to basically be sitting right on the uptrend lines of the indices. Watching 1275 on the S&P and say 11470 on the DOW. Bulls had better hope they hold.